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Reviewing Analyst targets one year later
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I’ve been thinking about how the analysts have been doing over the past little while. They’ve come out with numbers that we’ve shaken our collective heads at, wondering if they really know where AAPL is going. I decided to do a little research on these analysts and see how their targets fared a year after the calls that they made. To that, I’ve put together a spreadsheet of a couple of years worth target pricing and compared it with where AAPL was 12 months later. To show how each call was, I also calculated a “miss factor”, showing how much did they miss that actual by. You’ll see that the numbers are all over the place, from a few that were off by single digit percentage to being off by close to 50% of the actual price.
Date Analyst Target Actual Miss factor
2010-01-07 Barclays Capital $260 336.12 23%
2009-12-28 Gleacher & Company $260 325.47 20%
2009-12-14 JP Morgan $230 320.29 28%
2009-10-20 RBC Capital Mkts $275 310.53 11%
2009-10-20 Credit Suisse $250 310.53 19%
2009-10-20 Caris & Company $260 310.53 16%
2009-10-20 Barclays Capital $235 310.53 24%
2009-10-20 Oppenheimer $235 310.53 24%
2009-10-13 Credit Suisse $235 300.14 22%
2009-10-02 UBS $265 282.52 6%
2009-10-02 Kaufman Bros $214 282.52 24%
2009-10-01 Oppenheimer $210 282.52 26%
2009-09-24 Piper Jaffray $235 292.32 20%
2009-09-15 Needham $235 270.22 13%
2009-09-01 Credit Suisse $200 250.33 20%
2009-08-18 RBC Capital Mkts $250 253.07 1%
2009-07-22 Kaufman Bros $184 259.02 29%
2009-07-22 Deutsche Securities $225 259.02 13%
2009-07-20 RBC Capital Mkts $170 251.89 33%
2009-06-17 Gleacher & Company $175 271.87 36%
2009-06-09 Barclays Capital $173 243.20 29%
2009-06-09 Susquehanna Financial $170 243.20 30%
2009-04-13 Kaufman Bros $152 242.43 37%
2009-04-09 Credit Suisse $133 241.79 45%
2009-04-06 Barclays Capital $143 239.54 40%
2009-03-16 Gleacher & Company $120 224.45 47%
2009-01-22 Gleacher & Company $110 197.75 44%
2009-01-22 Needham $200 197.75 -1%
2009-01-15 Oppenheimer $120 205.93 42%
2009-01-02 Argus $145 210.73 31% -
IIRC, RBC’s AAPL analyst, Abramsky, always struck me as being pretty sharp. Not surprised to see him in a tie for most accurate.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
John Molloy
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While we’re on the subject please let’s not forget these iPad predictions:
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We’re to a little over 7.4 million iPads so far with the holiday quarter’s numbers yet to come in. Wow, is absolutely everybody on that list wrong!
[ Edited: 12 January 2011 09:51 PM by Mav ]
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
I wonder if you’d be more accurate by throwing darts than they are using their analysis?
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DawnTreader
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I wonder if you’d be more accurate by throwing darts than they are using their analysis?
Follow the top independents, not the pros.
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We’re to a little over 7.4 million iPads so far with the holiday quarter’s numbers yet to come in. Wow, is absolutely everybody on that list wrong!
Don’t you guys are being a little harsh considering those numbers were put out before the first ipad was sold. Where are all the cynicism calls about all of the AFB expectations for last qtr that were waaaaaaay off. let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.Signature
Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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capablanca
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Don’t you guys are being a little harsh considering those numbers were put out before the first ipad was sold. Where are all the cynicism calls about all of the AFB expectations for last qtr that were waaaaaaay off. let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.
Yes.
And let’s remember too that Tim Cook’s iPad estimates were too low. Because he does not publish, we don’t know by how much. But we can infer that he was way low, both by his comments in the concalls and by his difficulty in making them fast enough.
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We’re not paid to do this. And for the record, my revs and EPS weren’t that far off the mark.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
...let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.
hmm… none over 6m here, except for a couple of the pros. But yeah we were a bit high.
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...let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.
hmm… none over 6m here, except for a couple of the pros. But yeah we were a bit high.
Dang it Daniel, you bring facts to a memory recall, not fair.Signature
Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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DawnTreader
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Don’t you guys are being a little harsh considering those numbers were put out before the first ipad was sold. Where are all the cynicism calls about all of the AFB expectations for last qtr that were waaaaaaay off. let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.
Yes.
And let’s remember too that Tim Cook’s iPad estimates were too low. Because he does not publish, we don’t know by how much. But we can infer that he was way low, both by his comments in the concalls and by his difficulty in making them fast enough.
We may have been high on our estimates in unit sales that quarter (the independents) be we also saw the opportunity. This has been the difference and continues to be the difference.
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DawnTreader
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Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.
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DawnTreader
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Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.
I will stand on your forecasts over any of them as well.
Thank you.
I’ll also stand with my fellow independents and members of the AFB who are putting up some nifty numbers.
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Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.
DT, I think you are fantastic. I was just pointing out that the estimates when it first came out should be analyzed in a different light. Not one had been sold when those estimates were put out.
PO gives guidance and he stinks at it and he should be the best.
Signature
Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.
DT, I think you are fantastic. I was just pointing out that the estimates when it first came out should be analyzed in a different light. Not one had been sold when those estimates were put out.
PO gives guidance and he stinks at it and he should be the best.
I don’t think he stinks at it. I think SJ asks him what he thinks sales will be for the quarter and then SJ tells him to trim that number by 25% or so and use that as guidance. PO knows what sales will be but he just isn’t allowed to be realistic.
I know Adam. Just trying to make a point, just not doing a good job at it.
If truth were to be told I bet PO and company can predict to within .05. They have all the inside info.Signature
Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
