Reviewing Analyst targets one year later

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    Posted: 12 January 2011 07:54 PM

    I’ve been thinking about how the analysts have been doing over the past little while. They’ve come out with numbers that we’ve shaken our collective heads at, wondering if they really know where AAPL is going. I decided to do a little research on these analysts and see how their targets fared a year after the calls that they made. To that, I’ve put together a spreadsheet of a couple of years worth target pricing and compared it with where AAPL was 12 months later. To show how each call was, I also calculated a “miss factor”, showing how much did they miss that actual by. You’ll see that the numbers are all over the place, from a few that were off by single digit percentage to being off by close to 50% of the actual price.

    Date          Analyst               Target    Actual    Miss factor
    2010
    -01-07    Barclays Capital       $260     336.12       23%
    2009-12-28    Gleacher Company     $260     325.47       20%
    2009-12-14    JP Morgan              $230     320.29       28%
    2009-10-20    RBC Capital Mkts       $275     310.53       11%
    2009-10-20    Credit Suisse          $250     310.53       19%
    2009-10-20    Caris Company        $260     310.53       16%
    2009-10-20    Barclays Capital       $235     310.53       24%
    2009-10-20    Oppenheimer            $235     310.53       24%
    2009-10-13    Credit Suisse          $235     300.14       22%
    2009-10-02    UBS                    $265     282.52        6%
    2009-10-02    Kaufman Bros           $214     282.52       24%
    2009-10-01    Oppenheimer            $210     282.52       26%
    2009-09-24    Piper Jaffray          $235     292.32       20%
    2009-09-15    Needham                $235     270.22       13%
    2009-09-01    Credit Suisse          $200     250.33       20%
    2009-08-18    RBC Capital Mkts       $250     253.07        1%
    2009-07-22    Kaufman Bros           $184     259.02       29%
    2009-07-22    Deutsche Securities    $225     259.02       13%
    2009-07-20    RBC Capital Mkts       $170     251.89       33%
    2009-06-17    Gleacher Company     $175     271.87       36%
    2009-06-09    Barclays Capital       $173     243.20       29%
    2009-06-09    Susquehanna Financial  $170     243.20       30%
    2009-04-13    Kaufman Bros           $152     242.43       37%
    2009-04-09    Credit Suisse          $133     241.79       45%
    2009-04-06    Barclays Capital       $143     239.54       40%
    2009-03-16    Gleacher Company     $120     224.45       47%
    2009-01-22    Gleacher Company     $110     197.75       44%
    2009-01-22    Needham                $200     197.75       -1%
    2009-01-15    Oppenheimer            $120     205.93       42%
    2009-01-02    Argus                  $145     210.73       31
         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 08:12 PM #1

    IIRC, RBC’s AAPL analyst, Abramsky, always struck me as being pretty sharp.  Not surprised to see him in a tie for most accurate.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 12 January 2011 08:13 PM #2

    While we’re on the subject please let’s not forget these iPad predictions:

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    .

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 08:16 PM #3

    We’re to a little over 7.4 million iPads so far with the holiday quarter’s numbers yet to come in.  Wow, is absolutely everybody on that list wrong! LOL

    [ Edited: 12 January 2011 08:51 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 09:33 PM #4

    I wonder if you’d be more accurate by throwing darts than they are using their analysis?

         
  • Posted: 12 January 2011 09:46 PM #5

    CdnPhoto - 13 January 2011 01:33 AM

    I wonder if you’d be more accurate by throwing darts than they are using their analysis?

    Follow the top independents, not the pros.

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 09:52 PM #6

    Mav - 13 January 2011 12:16 AM

    We’re to a little over 7.4 million iPads so far with the holiday quarter’s numbers yet to come in.  Wow, is absolutely everybody on that list wrong! LOL


    Don’t you guys are being a little harsh considering those numbers were put out before the first ipad was sold. Where are all the cynicism calls about all of the AFB expectations for last qtr that were waaaaaaay off. let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Posted: 12 January 2011 10:34 PM #7

    mbeauch - 13 January 2011 01:52 AM

    Don’t you guys are being a little harsh considering those numbers were put out before the first ipad was sold. Where are all the cynicism calls about all of the AFB expectations for last qtr that were waaaaaaay off. let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.

    Yes.

    And let’s remember too that Tim Cook’s iPad estimates were too low.  Because he does not publish, we don’t know by how much.  But we can infer that he was way low, both by his comments in the concalls and by his difficulty in making them fast enough.

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 10:36 PM #8

    We’re not paid to do this.  And for the record, my revs and EPS weren’t that far off the mark.  smile

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 11:19 PM #9

    mbeauch - 13 January 2011 01:52 AM

    ...let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.

    hmm… none over 6m here, except for a couple of the pros. But yeah we were a bit high.

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 11:24 PM #10

    deagol - 13 January 2011 03:19 AM
    mbeauch - 13 January 2011 01:52 AM

    ...let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.

    hmm… none over 6m here, except for a couple of the pros. But yeah we were a bit high.


    Dang it Daniel, you bring facts to a memory recall, not fair. LOL

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Posted: 13 January 2011 12:32 AM #11

    capablanca - 13 January 2011 02:34 AM
    mbeauch - 13 January 2011 01:52 AM

    Don’t you guys are being a little harsh considering those numbers were put out before the first ipad was sold. Where are all the cynicism calls about all of the AFB expectations for last qtr that were waaaaaaay off. let me remind the 4.1 mil ipads and everybody and their brother was over 6 in this forum.

    Yes.

    And let’s remember too that Tim Cook’s iPad estimates were too low.  Because he does not publish, we don’t know by how much.  But we can infer that he was way low, both by his comments in the concalls and by his difficulty in making them fast enough.

    We may have been high on our estimates in unit sales that quarter (the independents) be we also saw the opportunity. This has been the difference and continues to be the difference.

         
  • Posted: 13 January 2011 12:33 AM #12

    Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.

         
  • Posted: 13 January 2011 12:48 AM #13

    adamthompson3232 - 13 January 2011 04:40 AM
    DawnTreader - 13 January 2011 04:33 AM

    Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.

    I will stand on your forecasts over any of them as well.

    Thank you.  grin

    I’ll also stand with my fellow independents and members of the AFB who are putting up some nifty numbers.

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 12:55 AM #14

    DawnTreader - 13 January 2011 04:33 AM

    Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.

    DT, I think you are fantastic. I was just pointing out that the estimates when it first came out should be analyzed in a different light. Not one had been sold when those estimates were put out.

    PO gives guidance and he stinks at it and he should be the best.

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 01:01 AM #15

    adamthompson3232 - 13 January 2011 04:58 AM
    mbeauch - 13 January 2011 04:55 AM
    DawnTreader - 13 January 2011 04:33 AM

    Now, back on topic. I’ll stand on my share price forecasts against any of the pros.

    DT, I think you are fantastic. I was just pointing out that the estimates when it first came out should be analyzed in a different light. Not one had been sold when those estimates were put out.

    PO gives guidance and he stinks at it and he should be the best.

    I don’t think he stinks at it. I think SJ asks him what he thinks sales will be for the quarter and then SJ tells him to trim that number by 25% or so and use that as guidance. PO knows what sales will be but he just isn’t allowed to be realistic.

    I know Adam. Just trying to make a point, just not doing a good job at it. LOL  If truth were to be told I bet PO and company can predict to within .05. They have all the inside info.

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.