(F) Ford

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    Posted: 12 January 2011 09:17 PM

    Ford is hitting on all cylinders, to say the least. Thanks to the urgings of mbeauch, I hold a fair amount of F options, short term and leaps. Up by a couple of hundred percent. In some ways I see Ford at the same place that Apple was at the beginning of this century. Am I suggesting that we all sell our Apple shares and buy Ford, NO.  AAPL is a once in a lifetime opportunity for investors, but a few years from now the same may be said about F.

    Any ideas?

    :apple:

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 09:20 PM #1

    I’ve driven a Ford lately…and I didn’t like it much at all, I’m afraid.

    I then drove another Ford which was fine in the automatic transmission department, but otherwise uninspiring.

    Company-wise, F may be a good speculation play as the strongest of the US automakers.  I still think some of their product needs work.  They’re onto something with the Mustang (which could still benefit from a full redesign), but they can’t afford to have any Focus-type cars, or even Escape-type SUVs (both literally from another era) in their lineup any longer.

    Wow…suddenly feels like I’m posting in Autoblog or something. smile

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  • Posted: 12 January 2011 10:00 PM #2

    I disagree.  I have a ford (f250 diesel) and a honda.  My dad just bought a fusion.  I think the build quality on all is outstanding in comparison to others I tried ( GM, Toyota, dodge / chrystler).  I imagine it also has to do with what you are comparing against.  If comparing a ford fusion to a BMW 350i well, all bets are off but they target different market sectors IMO. 

    The focus sells very well and with increasing fuel costs thet will become more popular.  The ecoboost technology will boost f150 sales and I suspect the new explorer will be flying off dealer lots.  Ford is now more profitable selling far fewer cars than it was just 3 short years ago. 

    I must add, I am not brand loyal to any manufacturer of any product ( hence the Honda), I put my money where I feel I get the most value.  I also am not a “fanboy ” of any stock, I put my money where I see potential for the highest returns versus risk.  Sometimes I am wrong but so far F has been a pretty good pick for me.

         
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 10:08 PM #3

    Don’t get me wrong, Ford’s new stuff has great promise.  EcoBoost is awesome and more automakers should join the direct-injection plus maybe turbo party. 

    I did drive a lemon Fusion, no doubt, but those first impressions matter.  Also, Fusion is a 2004 car as is the Escape, give or take a year.  The Focus dates back to around 2000 or so.  Bring on redesigns such as the Explorer (looks awesome), and new product like the Flex and the Fiesta.  I may end up buying F/options at some point if Ford continues to improve.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Posted: 12 January 2011 10:52 PM #4

    MacCube - 13 January 2011 01:17 AM

    Ford is hitting on all cylinders, to say the least. Thanks to the urgings of mbeauch, I hold a fair amount of F options, short term and leaps. Up by a couple of hundred percent. In some ways I see Ford at the same place that Apple was at the beginning of this century. Am I suggesting that we all sell our Apple shares and buy Ford, NO.  AAPL is a once in a lifetime opportunity for investors, but a few years from now the same may be said about F.

    Any ideas?

    :apple:

    It’s an awesome stock to own (or option)..  but it’s not going to grow as much as apple.

    It will be on fire all year though..  as they pay down their debt and their credit levels raise, it’s up up up.

    When they reinstate their dividends..  it’s up up up.

    and those are two items outside of the products they sell. 

    Ford is not a speculative play..  Ford is THE global car company play, in my opinion.  Their in China, India, US, etc, etc..  they are sort of like a diversified

    I almost bought some Tata Motors the other day, because I wanted to get exposure to India’s market.. but I read their last 10K, and studied a ton of recent articles on them, and realized that Ford is the automotive India play.  The trippled their sales in India YoY I believe - domestically.

    I’m not saying tata is not worth buying.. but with all that inflation crap now, and all the greatness and promise that Ford exudes…  Ford is the choice.  It is ‘the’ global play.  IMO

    ps - the fact that something like 70% of their car parts are the same across all of their cars (something like that)..  will pay off greatly over time.  Economies of Scale for you right there..

         
  • Posted: 13 January 2011 12:15 AM #5

    The Mustang needs to ditch the live axle, an unwelcome retro feature.

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 12:38 AM #6

    Mav - 13 January 2011 01:20 AM

    Wow…suddenly feels like I’m posting in Autoblog or something. smile

    Funny, here all this time I thought AFB stood for Auto Financial Board.  smile

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 03:14 AM #7

    One bump in the road will be the negotiation of a new UAW contract this summer.

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 10:07 AM #8

    Mercel - 13 January 2011 04:15 AM

    The Mustang needs to ditch the live axle, an unwelcome retro feature.

    I disagree.  I own a 2010 Mustang GT and Ford has done wonders with this ‘ancient” design.  Car and Driver (or was it Road and Track?) did a lap time comparison between the BMW M3 and the 2010 Mustang.  They ran almost identical lap times.  The live axle design may be old, but it has been refined to a high enough level to compete with the world’s best IRS cars.  Plus it’s cheaper and more robust than any IRS setup out there.  Just my $0.02.

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  • Posted: 13 January 2011 10:42 AM #9

    I have spent some time rethinking why I am invested in Ford.
    What I have concluded is this, I missed out on investing in Apple when it was coming back from the brink of extinction.  If one looks at the recent history of Ford they are on the same path IMO.  There is a risk they wont make it (however slight it seems to me) but the risk / reward looks hauntingly familiar to the apple story…

    Ford is a small part of my investment portfolio at this time but reading through posts of some of the veteran apple investors it appears to be how most began their apple investments which obviously has paid off in spades…

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 10:52 AM #10

    madmaxroi - 13 January 2011 07:14 AM

    One bump in the road will be the negotiation of a new UAW contract this summer.

    Mad, I agree. The UAW could become “The Fly In The Ointment” with Ford. But hopefully the rank-in-file membership realizes they’ve just avoided disaster and that this is no time to make unrealistic demands. Hopefully there is a trust and respect for Alan Mullary that was missing in years past.

     

    :apple:

    Just found THIS.

    Ford (NYSE:F) said it plans to hire more than 7,000 workers in the U.S. by 2012. Under a 2007 contract, new hires will make around $14, or half the wages of veteran workers. In 2010, Ford Motor Company beat the street with $ in profits. Shares of F are trading at $18.71 per share.

    Half the wages.

    [ Edited: 13 January 2011 11:01 AM by MacCube ]      
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 11:49 AM #11

    Jim Cramers interview with Alan Mulally from yesterday.

    :apple:

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2011 02:21 PM #12

    Another reason.  Ford is really getting their act together.

    Ford Is Number One In 2010 Owner Loyalty

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    Posted: 13 January 2011 02:31 PM #13

    My mum wants a new car (again) and so we’re going to look at the new Explorer, Nissan Murano, Acura MDX, Lexus RX (shudder) and Merc ML.

    May the best purse carrier win quickly.

    [ Edited: 13 January 2011 02:35 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Posted: 13 January 2011 03:17 PM #14

    Eric Landstrom - 13 January 2011 06:31 PM

    My mum wants a new car (again) and so we’re going to look at the new Explorer, Nissan Murano, Acura MDX, Lexus RX (shudder) and Merc ML.

    May the best purse carrier win quickly.

    She is tired of the AMG already? Man, life is tough for you guys. tongue laugh I don’t think those are all in the same class. My favorite out of them is the MDX. If I thought I could make it work for me that is what I would want. It is just to small and can’t carry enough weight.

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    Posted: 13 January 2011 04:08 PM #15

    mbeauch - 13 January 2011 07:17 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 13 January 2011 06:31 PM

    My mum wants a new car (again) and so we’re going to look at the new Explorer, Nissan Murano, Acura MDX, Lexus RX (shudder) and Merc ML.

    May the best purse carrier win quickly.

    She is tired of the AMG already? Man, life is tough for you guys. tongue laugh I don’t think those are all in the same class. My favorite out of them is the MDX. If I thought I could make it work for me that is what I would want. It is just to small and can’t carry enough weight.

    The class my mum looks at is

    (1) memory seats.
    (2) All wheel drive.
    (3) heated steering wheel.
    (4) Can the dealer fix it the first time.
    (5) If not, then does the dealer offer free massages while you wait?

    Oh, and it must have a place for a purse.

    What I look at is

    (1) If or when my mother hits something, will it break?
    (2) when mum is grinding the wheels along a curb, will a tire go flat?
    (3) can the dealer fix it the first time?
    (4) does the dealer offer to come and get the car for repairs?

    For myself, I’m still angling in on a F150 4x4 super crew with a 6.5ft bed so it can haul junk with the new little twin-turbo. Maybe. If I can sit in it and get past blue gauges.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.