How Many iPhones Did Apple Sell In FQ1?

  • Posted: 14 January 2011 12:59 AM

    PED has posted the analyst iPhone estimates for the quarter.

    Congratulations to Mark Beauch for his first listing in the quarterly index and to AFB member Patrick Smellie on his timely return.

         
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    Posted: 14 January 2011 10:18 AM #1

    DawnTreader - 14 January 2011 04:59 AM

    PED has posted the analyst iPhone estimates for the quarter.

    Congratulations to Mark Beauch for his first listing in the quarterly index and to AFB member Patrick Smellie on his timely return.


    Yikes, the first time up and I am the high AFBer for unit sales. What in the heck is going on here?  LOL

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    Posted: 14 January 2011 12:08 PM #2

    And just a little while back you were “calling out” (note quotes) some of us for being too high on iPad last quarter… wink J/k.

    IIRC, there’s now two 18+ million iPhone estimates out there - that Apple’s Gold guy and Citigroup.  I’m not sure this is the “setup” manifesting itself again as far as Wall Street analysts’ furious last-minute upward revisions are concerned, but 18+ million sold when Apple sold 14.1 million last quarter is a very ambitious target to say the least.

    [ Edited: 14 January 2011 01:40 PM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 14 January 2011 01:53 PM #3

    Thanks Mav, that helps.  LOL  Come on China!!!!!!

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    Posted: 14 January 2011 01:57 PM #4

    China Telecom will be important, but China Mobile is the ultimate prize (570 million subscribers vs. about 180 million for AT&T/Verizon combined!).  Once the ink is dry on that deal…well, I hope to be adequately invested in AAPL common ‘n calls by then.  smile  Even utterly disappointing rates of iPhone uptake amongst China Mobile subscribers (as if that’ll happen) will look mind-blowing from an investor standpoint.

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    Posted: 14 January 2011 02:07 PM #5

    China Mobile uses proprietary TD-SCDMA, which complicates things.

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    Posted: 14 January 2011 02:59 PM #6

    Surprising that Andy Zaky’s estimates are missing from PED’s list this quarter - no updates on his blog either. Given that he holds the #2 rank on Deagol’s ranking, I’m curious to see his numbers.

         
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    Posted: 14 January 2011 11:09 PM #7

    Mav - 14 January 2011 04:08 PM

    And just a little while back you were “calling out” (note quotes) some of us for being too high on iPad last quarter… wink J/k.

    IIRC, there’s now two 18+ million iPhone estimates out there - that Apple’s Gold guy and Citigroup.  I’m not sure this is the “setup” manifesting itself again as far as Wall Street analysts’ furious last-minute upward revisions are concerned, but 18+ million sold when Apple sold 14.1 million last quarter is a very ambitious target to say the least.


    Ambitious yes!  International sales are smokin 14m+ was a 91% increase YOY last quarter..  I’m saying the growth for Q1 YOY is going to be well north of 100%.  Last years growth in Q1 on the iphones was 100%.  I project we do a little better than last year..

    Dennis

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    Posted: 15 January 2011 12:27 AM #8

    Welcome to the AFB, Dennyhil, btw.

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    Posted: 15 January 2011 12:34 AM #9

    AHHA - 14 January 2011 06:59 PM

    Surprising that Andy Zaky’s estimates are missing from PED’s list this quarter - no updates on his blog either. Given that he holds the #2 rank on Deagol’s ranking, I’m curious to see his numbers.

    I did notice that as well.. I enjoy Zaky’s opinion.  He hasn’t surfaced for a while.  Hope all is well.

    Thanks MAV - think I’ll hang out for a decade or so..

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  • Posted: 15 January 2011 01:24 AM #10

    Dennyhil - 15 January 2011 03:09 AM
    Mav - 14 January 2011 04:08 PM

    And just a little while back you were “calling out” (note quotes) some of us for being too high on iPad last quarter… wink J/k.

    IIRC, there’s now two 18+ million iPhone estimates out there - that Apple’s Gold guy and Citigroup.  I’m not sure this is the “setup” manifesting itself again as far as Wall Street analysts’ furious last-minute upward revisions are concerned, but 18+ million sold when Apple sold 14.1 million last quarter is a very ambitious target to say the least.


    Ambitious yes!  International sales are smokin 14m+ was a 91% increase YOY last quarter..  I’m saying the growth for Q1 YOY is going to be well north of 100%.  Last years growth in Q1 on the iphones was 100%.  I project we do a little better than last year..

    Dennis

    We could see a 100% YOY unit sales growth quarter. Constrained supplies leading into the quarter supports strong unit sales gains.

    One of the issues we do confront is that the numbers can quickly escape to the upside when each product line is treated as an isolated unit. Revenue growth last quarter neared 67%. Moving much above that rate of revenue growth puts one in the stratosphere in terms of eps estimates.

    One thing to consider is that this year there was more competition from other smartphone vendors. Over the long term I do see many Android users migrating to the iPhone. I see the Android’s best market among those moving up to smartphones for the first time.

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2011 03:11 AM #11

    Mav - 15 January 2011 04:27 AM

    Welcome to the AFB, Dennyhil, btw.

    Dennis, Welcome to the AFB.  grin