Why Apple’s Best Days May Be Over

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    Posted: 14 January 2011 11:32 PM

    Why Apple’s Best Days May Be Over by James B. Stewart.  He thinks GOOG is a better investment.  Sound like the missing Jeffi.

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    Posted: 14 January 2011 11:59 PM #1

    Mace - 15 January 2011 03:32 AM

    Why Apple’s Best Days May Be Over by James B. Stewart.  He thinks GOOG is a better investment.  Sound like the missing Jeffi.

    Does anyone here own goog?

    Everytime I compare goog to aapl and also compare the fundamentals it looks like aap/Apple is the clear winner.

      cheers
        JohnG

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2011 12:15 AM #2

    Stewart is a smart guy.  I have read a couple of his books.  I must say, though, that this piece does not rattle me.  Maybe he will look at things a bit more dispassionately when the glitz of CES wears off. 

    Having said that, options are risky, and his point about all the bullish analysts is valid.  But less so than back in a time when humans were determining prices.

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 12:24 AM #3

    Brain turned partly off reading the article.

    Main points, in super-snark mode:

    Motorola Xoom HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Motorola Atrix OMG DOCKS WITH LAPTOP AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Motorola products trumped Apple at CES BUT APPLE WASN’T EVEN THERE AND I NEVER USED THESE PRODUCTS AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHA

    iPad screen TERRIBLE TERRIBLE GLARE AND FINGERPRINTS ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

    Travelling with Kindle again makes bag heavy and MAKES HIM NERVOUS AS AN INVESTOR IF I LAUGH ANYMORE I’LL START CRYING (NEEDED A NAP BETWEEN ALL THAT LAUGHING)

    Android is best in show at CES SEE ABOVE ABOUT APPLE NOT BEING AT CES

    Hardware makers have competition MAN HAS BUYING AAPL BEEN THE GREATEST ACCIDENT YOU EVER MADE IN YOUR LIFE *ROLLING ON FLOOR LAUGHING NOW*

    Seriously?  Utter.  Weak.  Sauce.  As they say these days.  If you’re gonna make points, make points that make sense.  I generously give the article a 90% noise : 10% signal ratio.  In school terms, that grades out to an F.  Minus.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2011 12:36 AM #4

    Mav - 15 January 2011 04:24 AM

    Brain turned partly off reading the article.

    Main points, in super-snark mode:

    Motorola Xoom HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Motorola Atrix OMG DOCKS WITH LAPTOP AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Motorola products trumped Apple at CES BUT APPLE WASN’T EVEN THERE AND I NEVER USED THESE PRODUCTS AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHA

    iPad screen TERRIBLE TERRIBLE GLARE AND FINGERPRINTS ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

    Travelling with Kindle again makes bag heavy and MAKES HIM NERVOUS AS AN INVESTOR IF I LAUGH ANYMORE I’LL START CRYING (NEEDED A NAP BETWEEN ALL THAT LAUGHING)

    Android is best in show at CES SEE ABOVE ABOUT APPLE NOT BEING AT CES

    Hardware makers have competition MAN HAS BUYING AAPL BEEN THE GREATEST ACCIDENT YOU EVER MADE IN YOUR LIFE *ROLLING ON FLOOR LAUGHING NOW*

    Seriously?  Utter.  Weak.  Sauce.  As they say these days.  If you’re gonna make points, make points that make sense.  I generously give the article a 90% noise : 10% signal ratio.  In school terms, that grades out to an F.  Minus.


    Well done.

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 12:46 AM #5

    Joe Nocera, Steve Jobs’ favorite “slime bucket”! LOL

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 01:11 AM #6

    I see only one problem: I’m not sure what worlds are left for Apple to conquer.

    Hmm, worlds left to conquer. How about the 60% of Americans still using flip phones? How about all the trend-setting tweens like my niece who is close to getting her first cellphone ever? How about a billion Chinese?

    Oh, and the worlds Apple has conquered upgrade their phones every 1 or 2 years to the latest and greatest.

    I mean, this really is a dumb line of reasoning when you consider Apple is less than a year out from a brand new market (tablets) they just created out of thin air and we are just about to see how their first real full quarter selling them has gone, and the onus is on Apple to demonstrate their next innovative conquest? Really? Should Apple come out with innovative new products every quarter now?

    As far as competitors, Apple had no trouble with Droids on AT&T, so I’m not too worried about them on Verizon. We’ll see in April…

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 01:34 AM #7

    I think that Stewart provides some good cautionary advice; investors in Apple should remain alert to signals that one of the major markets may be changing.  Apple owns the current iPad market and has a huge share of the smart phone market, but the threat of a suddenly disruptive technology or of a new paradigm in consumer tastes could shift a core market suddenly, resulting in a huge drop in AAPL after an earnings event (I recall experiencing that very thing with Apple about ten years ago, when an unexpected drop in iMac sales and the future sales forecast made for a dismal earnings event).  In other words, FUD can be a useful warning.

    That said, I am fully invested and long on AAPL ... for now.

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 01:43 AM #8

    adamthompson3232 - 15 January 2011 04:43 AM

    How about this hit piece? Talk about ZERO research. All you have to do is read the recent Business Week article re: the VZ iPhone deal to know that half this crap is utterly false.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/business/15nocera.html?pagewanted=2&partner=yahoofinance

    I emailed the author, who apparently has had run-ins with SJ in the past.

    I suggest you email this idiot too.

    .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

    The NY Times is about as relevant as a phonograph manufacturer. They are dinosaurs* bellowing their death throes, as they sink into the tar pits.

    Fortunately, nobody reads the NYT anymore.

    *I am aware that only mammals sunk into the tarpits. In fact, the tar itself is likely formerly dinosaurs.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 01:46 AM #9

    adamthompson3232 - 15 January 2011 05:30 AM

    JD, apple does come out with innovative products every quarter:)

    I meant like entirely new product lines every quarter.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 02:15 AM #10

    FUD is useful?  FUD is FUD.

    Constant re-evaluation of one’s investment is the nature of smart investing.  I gave 10% credit to Mr. Stewart for that one, but he’s stating the obvious. 

    Of course trends, performance, and financial strength matter, not emotion.

    Also, the Apple of 10 years ago is nothing like the Apple of today.  Apple has more core products that have to be shifted out of favor.  You can’t just hate Mac, you also have to hate iOS.  Heck, you may love iOS already and hate Mac, without knowing how much OS X is in your iOS.  The key is hating things that are mostly much easier-to-use than the competition - which won’t ever happen.  An Apple usurper must be wildly creative, wildly intuitive, match build quality, get close on price/content, grow a vibrant third-party ecosystem, fight off the existing competition - it ain’t easy unless Apple starts slipping up.

    While some may focus on the moat, they fail to notice that Apple is building other castles; in some cases, the castle walls are surrounding the competition sight unseen.  As for disruptive technology, it sure helps when you’re Chief Disruptor with all-touchscreen interfaces, axing floppy drives and optical drives, building laptops around flash, building laptops without Flash, etc.  Always having the notion to challenge the status quo keeps everyone else off balance and keeps the company both mobile and adaptable in case something does take it by surprise.

    Competition is good.  It especially helps a company like Apple stay focused.  Apple finds what it likes (wedge shape of ultralights) and doesn’t like or finds doesn’t work (the curated approach to iPad’s feature set).  The presence of competition is no good reason to sell AAPL.  It’s watching for how Apple responds and continues to perform that is the key.

    [ Edited: 15 January 2011 02:17 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2011 02:35 AM #11

    Mace - 15 January 2011 03:32 AM

    Why Apple’s Best Days May Be Over by James B. Stewart.  He thinks GOOG is a better investment.  Sound like the missing Jeffi.

    Mace is back to misquoting/ paraphrasing me. Once again I will correct the record.

    I previously stated on these boards that I sold my entire Google position and deployed the money into Apple due to the arrival and likely success of the IPad.

    I also suggested that Apple should buy back approximately $25 billion of their shares when the stock was at about $250. Instead of earning almost 40% on 25 billion we earned about 1/2 of 1%. I guess An extra 10 billion in 5 months is nothing these days…

    To know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

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    Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.

         
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    Posted: 15 January 2011 05:04 AM #12

    jeffi - 15 January 2011 06:35 AM

    ... Mace is back to misquoting/ paraphrasing me. Once again I will correct the record ...

    You’ve to pardon the old man LOL.  Given the run-up in AAPL, is GOOG the better investment now?

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2011 08:05 AM #13

    Mace - 15 January 2011 09:04 AM
    jeffi - 15 January 2011 06:35 AM

    ... Mace is back to misquoting/ paraphrasing me. Once again I will correct the record ...

    You’ve to pardon the old man LOL.  Given the run-up in AAPL, is GOOG the better investment now?

    I knew you were baiting me for a response. Anyway, pardon granted. If we can’t be nice during good times then when?

    I hope Google is not the better investment as I am not yet positioned accordingly.

    Currently I am as positive regarding Apple’s growth as ever but I was more excited about Apple’s under valuation when the stock was last at $240 about 4+ months ago. We’ve ramped about 45% rather quickly and at some point we will again be range bound. That being said, Apple is far from overvalued at about 23X trailing earnings pre cash.

    Google is preparing for the future. Many are uncomfortable that they are too slow in monetizing their endeavors. The concern is warranted as they have lost some discipline because of their management’s style.

    Jeffi

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    Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.

         
  • Posted: 16 January 2011 12:48 AM #14

    adamthompson3232 - 15 January 2011 11:52 PM

    Interview with Jackass Joe.

    http://www.npr.org/2011/01/15/132956596/IPhone-Verizon-Deal-Confirms-Droid-Does

    NPR is no better or worse than any other government department.  I don’t believe Congress, the Fed, or DOD.  Why would I put any faith in what is said by their propaganda ministry?

         
  • Posted: 16 January 2011 12:49 AM #15

    capablanca - 16 January 2011 04:48 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 15 January 2011 11:52 PM

    Interview with Jackass Joe.

    http://www.npr.org/2011/01/15/132956596/IPhone-Verizon-Deal-Confirms-Droid-Does

    NPR is no better or worse than any other government department.  I don’t believe Congress, the Fed, or DOD.  Why would I put any faith in what is said by their propaganda ministry?

    Right, better you should watch Fox Newss.  (*(sheesh*]]]