Where is AAPL Headed FQ2 2011 & FQ3 2011

  • Posted: 23 January 2011 02:07 PM

    On the heels of Apple’s tectonic quarter just completed, we get really strong guidance for FQ2 2011.  And Apple will beat it like it has the previous 33 quarters.  By how much?  A picture is worth 1,000 words. 

    I’m not lowering P/Es either, as AMZN needs to go first.  Even though I’m not a fan of P/Es as a means to valuation, they can be used to give context to the overall health of the markets.  This time, I’ve disclosed estimated EPS for both FQ2 and FQ3 at the bottom of the charts, along with trailing earnings through the FQ ended. 

    It’s worth noting that the estimated 12 Mo. of EPS is 75% in the bag through FQ2 2011.  Add Apple’s guidance to the historical #s and you have to wonder:  When does everyone wake up to the fact that AAPL is CHEAP.  And THAT is ignoring Apple’s 60B in cash and equivalents.


         
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    Posted: 23 January 2011 02:32 PM #1

    PWATW (picture worth a thousand words).    These are worth a lot more than that.  How many zeroes, I do not know.

    a superb post

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 02:59 PM #2

    Here’s how sales bake Apple’s pie for Q2 2011:

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 03:04 PM #3

    Tetrachloride - 23 January 2011 06:32 PM

    a superb post

    Thank you.  grin

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 04:53 PM #4

    Who do you think Mr Market is?

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 05:24 PM #5

    adamthompson3232 - 23 January 2011 08:37 PM

    I think we should add a 16 P/E column going forward. The stock is being discounted for SJ’s health issues and I think this will continue until SJ comes back. I am not too concerned, though, because all this means is that it will take a bit longer to where we’re going than I would like.

    Other than that, this is a phenomenal visualization of some pretty basic concepts that all of us get but somehow is lost on the rest of the investor world. If I had a billion dollars I would pump at least half of it into AAPL stock tomorrow morning and then put my feet up on my yacht and sail the world without a worry in the world that my $500M would turn into a billion in a year or two. Why aren’t the billionaires out there all thinking the same thing?

    I think a P/E of 18 overdoes any discount accorded to AAPL over concerns with its founder.  To acquiesce to a P/E of 16 is also short-changing Apple’s stellar management team.  A P/E of 18 is ridiculous, frankly, given the growth story that is Apple today and for the foreseeable future.

    Anyway, don’t these guys want a bigger yacht?

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2011 05:24 PM #6

    Those are some great charts.

    I agree it would be helpful to see 16 PE included due to the SJ factor weighing the stock down.

    It would also be helpful to see a chart of PE - ex cash.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 05:27 PM #7

    iOSWeekly - 23 January 2011 09:24 PM

    Those are some great charts.

    I agree it would be helpful to see 16 PE included due to the SJ factor weighing the stock down.

    It would also be helpful to see a chart of PE - ex cash.

    Thanks, and I’ll put up the PE ex-cash chart later—I wanted to keep it simple.  When you consider the cash hoard, the charts become to look surreal as compared to where AAPL trades today.

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 06:40 PM #8

    Here’s the same chart with a series added to add cash to AAPL’s valuation (rather than reduce the effective P/E).  Cash per share is shown under the respective quarters illustrated.

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 06:45 PM #9

    Apple, the Rodney Dangerfield of stock valuation.  So Apple may say to Amazon, take my P/E please…(better yet, let’s swap P/Es!)

    Edited to add support for share price with P/Es swapped

    [ Edited: 23 January 2011 07:05 PM by ByeTMO ]      
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    Posted: 23 January 2011 07:51 PM #10

    Nice charts, thanks for the work. We need to have AFB branded press releases and get this info out grin

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2011 07:52 PM #11

    Big 10-4, Chas

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2011 08:07 PM #12

    ChasMac77 - 23 January 2011 11:51 PM

    Nice charts, thanks for the work. We need to have AFB branded press releases and get this info out grin

    PED knows AFB is there for him.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2011 08:27 PM #13

    Mercel - 24 January 2011 12:07 AM
    ChasMac77 - 23 January 2011 11:51 PM

    Nice charts, thanks for the work. We need to have AFB branded press releases and get this info out grin

    PED knows AFB is there for him.  :wink:

    Agreed, just wonder what would happen if into was pushed rather than being pulled from a few places.

    Edit: especially the AMZN disparity. That one get’s my goat more than Jay Cutler grin

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2011 08:38 PM #14

    I wouldn’t mind a domain name.    Whatever it takes raise visibility.  I notice that a certain short name is available.

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2011 08:50 PM #15

    Mercel - 23 January 2011 10:40 PM

    Here’s the same chart with a series added to add cash to AAPL’s valuation (rather than reduce the effective P/E).  Cash per share is shown under the respective quarters illustrated.

    Great work!

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics