AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 27 January 2011 11:42 PM #166

    Futures red.  Standard & Poors downgrades Japan based on huge debt.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 12:03 AM #167

    Unique, have a stake in Ford that reports in the morning. Hoping the market can hold up for one more day. The weeklies I have in Ford are for gambling. Not enough to hurt, but the payback has nice potential.

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    Posted: 28 January 2011 12:09 AM #168

    The idea that the VeriPhone is priced in with AAPL’s P/E at 19.2-ish escapes my understanding.  I mean, I get the “sell the news” possibility but I doubt it would be long-term (see AAPL’s bounce following the SJ news)

    Last year, AAPL always saw a P/E of high 22s or better, at times much better.  The minus side, the SJ issue, which is a known issue and has been priced into the stock to some unknown extent for years.  The plus side, the iPad and iPhone torrent, iPhone going CDMA, unrelenting growth by Apple this past quarter, super-strong guidance from Oppenheimer.  Most of WS is fuzzily aware on some level that Apple stands a great chance of breaking $50 billion in revs through the first half of the fiscal year - in other words, Apple will have 70+% YOY revs growth and slightly better than that earnings growth on top of already insanely high numbers. 

    Unless macro factors take hold, I can’t see AAPL not making it to at least $17.91 ttm earnings x 21 = 376 by April, and that’s being really conservative.

    [ Edited: 28 January 2011 12:14 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 28 January 2011 02:32 AM #169

    Friday

    R4       349.16
      midpoint   348.23
    R3       347.30
      midpoint   346.37
    R2       345.44
      midpoint   344.88
    R1       344.32
      midpoint   343.95
    PP       343.58
      midpoint   343.02
    S1       342.46
      midpoint   342.09
    S2       341.72
      midpoint   340.79
    S3       339.86
      midpoint   338.93
    S4       338.00

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 10:55 AM #170

    The first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP came in at 3.2%, a bit less than consensus at 3.7% up from 2.6% in the third quarter. For 2010, GDP advanced 2.9%, compared with a -2.6% drop in 2009. US economy now surpasses pre-crisis peak. The number is good, at least for Futures as it gained after the release.


    Moody?s is warning on the US Aaa rating, one day after S&P downgrade by a notch Japan?s rating. ?Although no rating action is contemplated at this time, the time frame for possible future actions appears to be shortening, and the probability of assigning a negative outlook in the coming two years is rising,? wrote Steven Hess, a senior credit officer in New York for Moody?s and the author of the report. The rating remains ?stable,? according to the report.


    Meanwhile tensions are building up on the Mideast as thousands of Egyptian antigovernment protesters are clashing with police in Cairo as Mohamed ElBaradei (the same from the UN nuclear commission) and his supporters joined the latest wave of pro-democracy rallies.


    In Asia markets ended mostly lower with Japan?s stocks being hit by the sovereign-debt rating cut. China gained.


    Europe still not worries with the PIIGS + Belgium sovereign debt problem as stock markets are trading mostly up after the US GDP results.


    The divergence between the small caps and large caps should be resolved soon. Yesterday the Russell 2000 rose along with the big caps but the long term MACD still points lower and the index did not successfully reclaim the uptrend line drawn from its late August low. Either the small caps need to catch up or the large caps to pull back.


    Earnings from AMZN, MSFT and F are facing some selling. However the market is trying hard to go even higher. And we are also on that magical end of month which gives us some positive seasonality. As mentioned before the sell-the-earning-news theme may bring some good entry points in good stocks.


    AAPL seems to be consolidating before a move higher on a sideways movement. Built a trading position to take advantage of the possible upside.


    Would not try to call a top like many are doing nor try to anticipate weakness. Caution is warranted for a reversal, however there seems to be some more gains to be harvested.


    USDX at 77.86 flat up 0.01%. Euro at $1.3711 down -0.08%. FXE at 136.59 down -0.20%.

    DJI at 12007.20 gaining 15.93 points up 0.13%

    SPX at 1301.56 up 0.165

    NDX at 2330 flat

    VIX at 16.07 down -0.50%.

    AAPL at $353.55 up 0.09%. Volume on yesterday?s down day was light.

         
  • Posted: 28 January 2011 11:08 AM #171

    Wow look at the price drop 4 pts in 5 mins…. Unbelievable

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 11:19 AM #172

    thealct - 28 January 2011 03:08 PM

    Wow look at the price drop 4 pts in 5 mins…. Unbelievable

    1.3 %.  Not unusual.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 11:23 AM #173

    I picked up F on the heels of the disappointment.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 11:27 AM #174

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    Well typical sell off after a strong run.  Nothing to panic about it.

    I may be able to have some extra cash by Tues, so I hope we stay around here for a few more days.

    I don’t think we will see a sell off after Verizon news.  I think we will go up 7 points or more around Feb 7.

    Good Luck to all.

    I have had a very busy week.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 11:35 AM #175

    I also picked up some 2013 $20 F calls for $2.38.

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  • Posted: 28 January 2011 11:36 AM #176

    Tetrachloride - 28 January 2011 03:19 PM
    thealct - 28 January 2011 03:08 PM

    Wow look at the price drop 4 pts in 5 mins…. Unbelievable

    1.3 %.  Not unusual.

    NASDAQ feed crashes and AAPL tanks 1.3% over a period of 5 min.
    To you, that’s “usual”?

         
  • Posted: 28 January 2011 11:40 AM #177

    bbbo - 28 January 2011 03:36 PM
    Tetrachloride - 28 January 2011 03:19 PM
    thealct - 28 January 2011 03:08 PM

    Wow look at the price drop 4 pts in 5 mins…. Unbelievable

    1.3 %.  Not unusual.

    NASDAQ feed crashes and AAPL tanks 1.3% over a period of 5 min.
    To you, that’s “usual”?

    Apple is down 1.03%, the nasdaq is down 1.2%.  What is unusual about that??

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 11:45 AM #178

    Given AAPL’s beta, its not unusual.  I did not say it was “usual”. 

    The drop in AAPL and other stocks is due to 1) regrouping after a run-up 2) “correction” after some stocks did not meet earnings expectations 3) new iPhones from Apple are not yet shipping to consumers and 4) unrest in the Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen may spread to other countries.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2011 12:17 PM #179

    Unrest in Egypt escalating. Rumors on a Suez Canal closing brings some panic selling to the market. Not bad, considering the complacency earlier.

         
  • Posted: 28 January 2011 12:56 PM #180

    Tetrachloride - 28 January 2011 03:45 PM

    Given AAPL’s beta, its not unusual.  I did not say it was “usual”. 

    The drop in AAPL and other stocks is due to 1) regrouping after a run-up 2) “correction” after some stocks did not meet earnings expectations 3) new iPhones from Apple are not yet shipping to consumers and 4) unrest in the Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen may spread to other countries.

    Sorry, not trying to be difficult but my understanding of “not unusual” is “usual”.

    I think you ought to take a look at the NASDAQ overlaid against the other two indexes. It is unusual today by any standard definition of unusual. Probably due to an unusual event that did occur regarding the NASDAQ related data feeds.
    I find it unusual that in your numbered list above, this issue doesn’t even factor.
    OK, as you see it.