iPad Cannibalization of Mac Sales

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    Posted: 17 February 2011 10:23 PM #31

    Gregg Thurman - 18 February 2011 02:11 AM

    Put your crazy thinking hats on. What if Apple’s long range goal is to replace MacOSX with iOS on ALL devices (including Macs).

    Andy Ihnatko always has his crazy thinking hat on: <a href=“http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9209219/Imagining_a_Mac_OS_X_iOS_mash_up?tax>Imagining a Mac OS X/iOS mash-up</a>

    I still think there are very distinct differences in user interface features between OSX and iOS devices that preclude a total merger. Each will borrow elements from the other, but they will remain separate.

         
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    Posted: 17 February 2011 10:24 PM #32

    iOS might run in emulation mode.  But to replace a multi-tasking OS with some highly polished apps as compared to apps for the mini-screen.  Or to rephrase, I certainly don’t want iOS to replace my current setup.  I’d rather switch to Linux.

         
  • Posted: 17 February 2011 10:42 PM #33

    Drew Bear - 18 February 2011 02:23 AM

    I still think there are very distinct differences in user interface features between OSX and iOS devices that preclude a total merger. Each will borrow elements from the other, but they will remain separate.

    I know this must be getting boring, but I agree with you.  grin

         
  • Posted: 18 February 2011 02:03 PM #34

    FalKirk - 18 February 2011 02:42 AM
    Drew Bear - 18 February 2011 02:23 AM

    I still think there are very distinct differences in user interface features between OSX and iOS devices that preclude a total merger. Each will borrow elements from the other, but they will remain separate.

    I know this must be getting boring, but I agree with you.  grin

    I agree as well.  grin

    Apple has plans for the Mac as iOS-based devices become more common, more popular and are used for many of the functions for which we previously relied on a Mac or PC. There’s tremendous potential for the Mac as the need for commodity-grade PCs is destroyed by iOS devices.

         
  • Posted: 19 February 2011 02:06 PM #35

    DawnTreader - 13 February 2011 08:38 PM
    Sparky - 13 February 2011 07:22 PM
    DawnTreader - 24 January 2011 06:22 AM

    This issue was addressed during Tuesday’s conference call with analysts. I’ll be looking for clues over the next few quarters. But something that struck me during my first analysis of the FQ1 revenue results is that all other product segments (other than the Apple iPad) maintained the same combined 40%+ revenue growth in FQ1 that was realized in FY2010.

    This suggests preliminarily that cannibalization of other Apple product sales is quite limited, if it’s occurring at all. Mac unit sales growth in FQ1 was about 23% versus the 31% pace of growth realized in FY2010. However, domestic and global PC sales growth may have slowed as well.

    I’m currently looking closely at the trends in Mac unit sales. In the December quarter Mac ASPs rose sequentially from $1,254 to $1,313, reversing a downward trend. If there is some cannibalization of Mac sales it’s most likely at the low-end of the Mac market.

    Again, there isn’t sufficient data to draw any conclusions and I’ll be watching for clues over the next few quarters. But overall, the iPad appears to be having little to no effect on overall revenue growth when all other revenue sources are combined.

    DT, we’ll know more after the March quarter results are released. I’m thinking in some foreign markets the presence of the iPad may actually boost Mac sales.

    You have a good point. I’m looking forward to the March quarter results to see if there is indeed a positive impact on Mac sales in some markets due to the presence of the Apple iPad.

    DT, what are you estimating for Mac unit sales in the March quarter?

         
  • Posted: 19 February 2011 08:53 PM #36

    Sparky - 19 February 2011 06:06 PM

    DT, what are you estimating for Mac unit sales in the March quarter?

    I expect Mac unit sales to rise at a rate similar to FQ1. But we must keep in mind the domestic PC market is otherwise entering a phase of economic decline.

         
  • Posted: 21 February 2011 01:48 PM #37

    DawnTreader - 20 February 2011 12:53 AM
    Sparky - 19 February 2011 06:06 PM

    DT, what are you estimating for Mac unit sales in the March quarter?

    I expect Mac unit sales to rise at a rate similar to FQ1. But we must keep in mind the domestic PC market is otherwise entering a phase of economic decline.

    Are you saying Macintosh market share will rise in the US?

         
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    Posted: 21 February 2011 01:58 PM #38

    In my opinion, the US market is fickle.  Mac unit sales will rise overall, but market share vs. PC’s (not to mention iPads, iPhones , iPod touches) is harder to calculate.

         
  • Posted: 21 February 2011 08:40 PM #39

    Tetrachloride - 21 February 2011 05:58 PM

    In my opinion, the US market is fickle.  Mac unit sales will rise overall, but market share vs. PC’s (not to mention iPads, iPhones , iPod touches) is harder to calculate.

    Tetra, the domestic PC market is in decline. Apple represents the lion’s share of overall unit sales growth (if any). The PC market overall is seeing double-digit unit sales growth primarily in developing nations. Apple should continue to gain domestic market share at an impressive pace for the next few quarters and especially in the June quarter as education spending on needed technology springs back to life.

         
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    Posted: 21 February 2011 09:01 PM #40

    thanks for the update.  my memory faltered during writing that post.

         
  • Posted: 22 February 2011 12:18 PM #41

    Apple will make significant gains in US market share throughout FY2011 and into FY2012.

    Here’s a look at the Mac’s overall performance over the last several quarters.

         
  • Posted: 27 February 2011 06:03 PM #42

    DawnTreader - 22 February 2011 04:18 PM

    Apple will make significant gains in US market share throughout FY2011 and into FY2012.

    Here’s a look at the Mac’s overall performance over the last several quarters.

    DT, how much do you think the new MacBook Pros will help this quarter’s Mac sales?

         
  • Posted: 27 February 2011 07:22 PM #43

    Sparky - 27 February 2011 10:03 PM
    DawnTreader - 22 February 2011 04:18 PM

    Apple will make significant gains in US market share throughout FY2011 and into FY2012.

    Here’s a look at the Mac’s overall performance over the last several quarters.

    DT, how much do you think the new MacBook Pros will help this quarter’s Mac sales?

    I expect the new MBPs to firm Mac sales in the quarter and bolster ASPs. I expect Macs to maintain FQ1’s unit growth rate which is notable considering the economic implosion occurring in the domestic PC market.

         
  • Posted: 06 March 2011 03:26 PM #44

    I’m bringing this topic back to the top in light of two of my most recent blog posts:

    The Apple Macintosh: Success In The Era of Handheld Devices

    Apple Retail Stores: Mac Sales Centers and More

    In the December quarter portable Mac unit sales rose 37% and at the same time the Apple iPad significantly boosted retail store revenue. While there may be some consumers choosing the Apple iPad over a MacBook Pro, I now suspect the Apple iPad and the retail store traffic it creates may actually boost Mac unit sales over the coming year. The losers are netbook makers and the Apple iPad represents a natural draw from the practical limitations of underpowered portable PCs.

    I’ll have more to say after the March quarter numbers are released, but for now I suspect the Apple ipad will provide a net boost to Mac portable sales rather than a product that on the whole cannibalizes Mac portable unit sales.

         
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    Posted: 06 March 2011 05:09 PM #45

    DawnTreader - 06 March 2011 07:26 PM

    While there may be some consumers choosing the Apple iPad over a MacBook Pro, I now suspect the Apple iPad and the retail store traffic it creates may actually boost Mac unit sales over the coming year. The losers are netbook makers and the Apple iPad represents a natural draw from the practical limitations of underpowered portable PCs…I suspect the Apple ipad will provide a net boost to Mac portable sales...

    This may be a twisted way to look at it, but it’s possible that people coming into an Apple Store to buy an iPad may get distracted by the 11” MB Air. Could the Air be “cannibalizing” the iPad?

    College students, for example, still need to do a lot of typing. iPad + BT keyboard isn’t exactly a convenient solution, the MB Air is. It may not offer as much battery life, but I’m willing to bet that most college students already carry a laptop AC adapter in their backpacks.

    That’s a long way of saying I agree the iPad will help boost Mac portable sales. But how do you even begin to estimate the significance of that boost?