iPad Cannibalization of Mac Sales

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    Posted: 08 March 2011 02:34 PM #76

    Mav - 08 March 2011 06:18 PM

    Sidenote:  Again, I am endlessly amused by sales and GM statistics for individual Apple products being thrown around like fact.

    You know Apple’s GM.  You also know the unit sales and revs of iPhone, iPad, total iPod (with some granularity), Mac by desktop/laptop, AppleTV, etc.

    You do NOT know how many MacBook Airs were sold in a quarter.  Wanna cite estimates/rumors, fine.  But please stop pretending like you actually know the true answer.

    Always interestIng when rumors become facts when repeated often enough.  The tech blogs are the best at this as their is very liittle fact checking.  As far as Mac/PC cannibalization, I think we will see it, their are many use cases where the laptop/net book are given the task despite being less then ideally suited since there never was an alternative like the iPad tablet.  I can give you a perfect aviation example.  The recent reports of the FAA allowing the iPad to replace paper charts on the surface sounds like we are removing printed copies but many folks where using a laptop with digital charts on a PC already in place of the paper chart so now the tablet replaces the laptop for this function.  Another place well see change is doctors offices and point of sale terminals again folks used PC because nothing better existed, but once suitable software is available on the tablet, these PC sales will be gone forever.

         
  • Posted: 08 March 2011 03:01 PM #77

    pats - 08 March 2011 06:34 PM

    As far as Mac/PC cannibalization, I think we will see it, their are many use cases where the laptop/net book are given the task despite being less then ideally suited since there never was an alternative like the iPad tablet.  I can give you a perfect aviation example.  The recent reports of the FAA allowing the iPad to replace paper charts on the surface sounds like we are removing printed copies but many folks where using a laptop with digital charts on a PC already in place of the paper chart so now the tablet replaces the laptop for this function.  Another place well see change is doctors offices and point of sale terminals again folks used PC because nothing better existed, but once suitable software is available on the tablet, these PC sales will be gone forever.

    Since 9 out of 10 notebooks are PCs and 10 out of 10 low end notebooks are PCs, it is reasonable to assume that the vast majority of the notebooks being replaced by iPads will be PCs.

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2011 03:23 PM #78

    pats - 08 March 2011 06:34 PM

    As far as Mac/PC cannibalization, I think we will see it…

    I think you need to separate Mac & PC. We’ve already seen iPad cannibalize netbook PC sales. Until we see signs that YOY Mac growth rate is slowing down significantly, the worst that can be said was already said by Tim Cook:  ?If this is cannibalization, it feels pretty good.?

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2011 03:29 PM #79

    FalKirk - 08 March 2011 07:01 PM
    pats - 08 March 2011 06:34 PM

    As far as Mac/PC cannibalization, I think we will see it, their are many use cases where the laptop/net book are given the task despite being less then ideally suited since there never was an alternative like the iPad tablet.  I can give you a perfect aviation example.  The recent reports of the FAA allowing the iPad to replace paper charts on the surface sounds like we are removing printed copies but many folks where using a laptop with digital charts on a PC already in place of the paper chart so now the tablet replaces the laptop for this function.  Another place well see change is doctors offices and point of sale terminals again folks used PC because nothing better existed, but once suitable software is available on the tablet, these PC sales will be gone forever.

    Since 9 out of 10 notebooks are PCs and 10 out of 10 low end notebooks are PCs, it is reasonable to assume that the vast majority of the notebooks being replaced by iPads will be PCs.

    All the early indicators bear this fact out.  The rate of growth in netbooks slowed to a crawl from being one of the few growth areas for PC with the release of the iPad, I believe this was because they did nothing optimum and were chosen as a low cost 80% solution.  The iPad on the other hand focused on performing certain functions better then the PC while not trying to replicate the functions the PC/laptop are optimal for.  In my experience their are lots of situations where we shoehorn our software into the existing form factors and accept the compromises.  The tablet form with the reduced weight, long battery life, and adequate performance is a perfect fit for alot of functions which are being fulfilled by PCs/laptop/netbooks.  These specialized functions used what was available and now with the addition of tablets, I can think of numerous verticals where a tablet just makes sense.  There are many general purpose pc being used in very specialized functions, just because you can customize the device to be good enough.  The difficulty is determining the % of cannibalization because the losses will come more from the general PC market since Apple is a small player and growing in that market it sort of masks any cannibalization.

         
  • Posted: 08 March 2011 04:14 PM #80

    As much as we’ve entered the post-PC era, the Mac in many ways remains at the core of the overall Apple user experience and it is a springboard for sales of other Apple products.

    I suspect Apple iPad buyers are much more apt to consider a Mac the next time they need to purchase a desktop or portable PC (if they don’t own a Mac already). The netbook was never a satisfying solution. It was (and I’m using past tense for a reason) a stopgap that has lost much of its appeal in the age of the tablet.

    The challenge for tablet makers is providing a uniform and integrated user experience. It’s not a matter of pumping out hardware units. It’s delivering a thematic, multi-product solution.

         
  • Posted: 09 March 2011 03:31 PM #81

    DawnTreader - 08 March 2011 08:14 PM

    As much as we’ve entered the post-PC era, the Mac in many ways remains at the core of the overall Apple user experience and it is a springboard for sales of other Apple products.

    I suspect Apple iPad buyers are much more apt to consider a Mac the next time they need to purchase a desktop or portable PC (if they don’t own a Mac already). The netbook was never a satisfying solution. It was (and I’m using past tense for a reason) a stopgap that has lost much of its appeal in the age of the tablet.

    The challenge for tablet makers is providing a uniform and integrated user experience. It’s not a matter of pumping out hardware units. It’s delivering a thematic, multi-product solution.

    Does that mean Apple’s competitors are in for a double whammy? Lost netbooks sales and struggles to compete with the iPad?

         
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    Posted: 09 March 2011 03:49 PM #82

    It certainly appears that way, in my opinion, Sparky.    Netbooks, tablets, laptops and desktops by non-Apple makers will suffer.  Its popcorn time in guessing who suffers the most.

         
  • Posted: 09 March 2011 03:54 PM #83

    Tetrachloride - 09 March 2011 07:49 PM

    It certainly appears that way, in my opinion, Sparky.    Netbooks, tablets, laptops and desktops by non-Apple makers will suffer.  Its popcorn time in guessing who suffers the most.

    This isn’t a pretty picture for PC makers if the iPad is eating up netbook sales because most tablet makers will not be adopting Windows and thus fragmentation of devices only makes things worse. Talk about product disconnects!

         
  • Posted: 09 March 2011 07:40 PM #84

    Apple’s integrated approach to the market is a clear winner and HP may be taking the early steps to follow that approach with WebOS. Google does need to move fast and hard on Chrome OS and its adoption.

         
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    Posted: 11 March 2011 12:22 PM #85

    Sports analogies are not working today.  “upon further review” and “extra innings” don’t cut it.

    Tho its really bad karma to use the t word, I sense a t******i of iPad demand.

         
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    Posted: 12 March 2011 03:52 AM #86

    Hmm.  How ‘bout we just go with “unprecedented” for now.

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  • Posted: 13 March 2011 08:07 PM #87

    DawnTreader - 09 March 2011 11:40 PM

    Apple’s integrated approach to the market is a clear winner and HP may be taking the early steps to follow that approach with WebOS. Google does need to move fast and hard on Chrome OS and its adoption.

    Yeah. HP has work to do to gain acceptance for WebOS. It won’t happen overnight. Does this mean HP is starting to move away from reliance on Windows?

         
  • Posted: 13 March 2011 10:59 PM #88

    Sparky - 13 March 2011 11:07 PM
    DawnTreader - 09 March 2011 11:40 PM

    Apple’s integrated approach to the market is a clear winner and HP may be taking the early steps to follow that approach with WebOS. Google does need to move fast and hard on Chrome OS and its adoption.

    Yeah. HP has work to do to gain acceptance for WebOS. It won’t happen overnight. Does this mean HP is starting to move away from reliance on Windows?

    HP is reducing its dependence on PCs and in a drive for more vertical integration I expect HP to further develop and champion WebOS.

         
  • Posted: 13 March 2011 11:03 PM #89

    DawnTreader - 14 March 2011 01:59 AM
    Sparky - 13 March 2011 11:07 PM
    DawnTreader - 09 March 2011 11:40 PM

    Apple’s integrated approach to the market is a clear winner and HP may be taking the early steps to follow that approach with WebOS. Google does need to move fast and hard on Chrome OS and its adoption.

    Yeah. HP has work to do to gain acceptance for WebOS. It won’t happen overnight. Does this mean HP is starting to move away from reliance on Windows?

    HP is reducing its dependence on PCs and in a drive for more vertical integration I expect HP to further develop and champion WebOS.

    Like Eric Schmidt, Jon Rubenstein has a copy, albeit a dusty copy, of Apple’s playbook.  However, HP is probably too bureaucratic to execute at the speed it needs to for WebOS to take root.

         
  • Posted: 13 March 2011 11:06 PM #90

    Mercel - 14 March 2011 02:03 AM

    Like Eric Schmidt, Jon Rubenstein has a copy, albeit a dusty copy, of Apple’s playbook.  However, HP is probably too bureaucratic to execute at the speed it needs to for WebOS to take root.

    I think it will take root almost exclusively or exclusively at the expense of Windows. WebOS is not good news for Microsoft.