“Other” stocks

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    Posted: 27 August 2012 08:13 PM #1036

    A keen eye for AMZN’s thin margins: Paulo Santos at Seeking Alpha.  The last 2 paragraphs:

    Amazon.com can increase the SKUs it carries exponentially, it’s getting a lot of its revenue expansion not from selling much more of the same products, but by selling many more different products. This has negative margin implications, from reduced warehouse efficiency and because Amazon.com can’t lean on suppliers and get much better terms when it’s not selling their wares in great quantities, like it did when focusing just on books (where indeed, it leaned heavily on suppliers).

    Conclusion

    The Kindle Touch going out of stock and dropping out of the top three best sellers offered us a rare glimpse into what it takes to get into the top three Amazon.com best seller list. This glimpse shows that a mere few hundred thousand units is enough, and again reinforces the notion that Amazon.com is facing structural challenges to its profitability, due to its revenue growth coming more from an expansion of the wares it carries, than from the massive selling of core products.

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2012 08:16 PM #1037

    Facebook is only 2.5 % from all-time low.

    A quote from over at Motley Fool

    Facebook is essentially a startup company that has not yet proven that they provide a service anyone is truly willing to pay for to use ...

    Facebook has yet to figure out what it is they sell, except stock.

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2012 10:44 AM #1038

    Put in a bid for some FB Jan 18 2014 $15.0 Puts.  FB is dying off quicker than I thought.  My daughters use Twitter and Instagram and rarely use FB anymore.

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2012 12:35 PM #1039

    incorrigible - 28 August 2012 01:44 PM

    Put in a bid for some FB Jan 18 2014 $15.0 Puts.  FB is dying off quicker than I thought.  My daughters use Twitter and Instagram and rarely use FB anymore.

    I’ve got a bid on AMZN puts April 180s.  I don’t do this very often, but there’s a limit to my frustration.

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2012 12:55 PM #1040

    God help me, I just went long NOK.

    o_O

    What can I say, calls were cheap, and the Samsung verdict at least gives them a fighting chance (I hope).

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2012 06:54 PM #1041

    incorrigible - 28 August 2012 01:44 PM

    Put in a bid for some FB Jan 18 2014 $15.0 Puts.  FB is dying off quicker than I thought.  My daughters use Twitter and Instagram and rarely use FB anymore.

    I’m relatively young and still use FB frequently. Instagram never caught on w/me since only a few people I know use it. Just remember that FB is going to acquire it anyway. Not on Twitter either, but that’s mainly because I’m not a texter like most people.

    Still, those FB puts aren’t a bad idea, as I’d never go long on FB.

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2012 07:28 PM #1042

    nkmho - 28 August 2012 09:54 PM
    incorrigible - 28 August 2012 01:44 PM

    Put in a bid for some FB Jan 18 2014 $15.0 Puts.  FB is dying off quicker than I thought.  My daughters use Twitter and Instagram and rarely use FB anymore.

    I’m relatively young and still use FB frequently. Instagram never caught on w/me since only a few people I know use it. Just remember that FB is going to acquire it anyway. Not on Twitter either, but that’s mainly because I’m not a texter like most people.

    Still, those FB puts aren’t a bad idea, as I’d never go long on FB.

    You may be right.  Just a hunch really.  My daughters (19, 20, and 23) say no one (i.e friends) uses FB anymore and they are the genre that drove it up in the first place.  Remember My Space?  Something better from a social standpoint will come along.  Most FB users are not pleased about he move to Timeline.  You will eventually get switched to it no matter how many times you refuse which is pissing people off.

    Not seeing and revenue/earnings growth drivers for FB at this time.

    Signature

    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2012 09:29 PM #1043

    incorrigible - 28 August 2012 10:28 PM

    You may be right.  Just a hunch really.  My daughters (19, 20, and 23) say no one (i.e friends) uses FB anymore and they are the genre that drove it up in the first place.  Remember My Space?  Something better from a social standpoint will come along.  Most FB users are not pleased about he move to Timeline.  You will eventually get switched to it no matter how many times you refuse which is pissing people off.

    Not seeing and revenue/earnings growth drivers for FB at this time.

    Interesting.

    Frankly, I’m surprised FB has lasted this long.  I was on it for about 2 minutes. The next FB usage report showing a decline will puncture the remaining air left in this stock.

    I did buy some HPQ at this price.  I hope not to have it long…

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2012 11:45 PM #1044

    incorrigible - 28 August 2012 10:28 PM

    You may be right.  Just a hunch really.  My daughters (19, 20, and 23) say no one (i.e friends) uses FB anymore and they are the genre that drove it up in the first place.  Remember My Space?  Something better from a social standpoint will come along.  Most FB users are not pleased about he move to Timeline.  You will eventually get switched to it no matter how many times you refuse which is pissing people off.

    Not seeing and revenue/earnings growth drivers for FB at this time.

    Yeah, my wife and I just got timelined within the past 2 weeks. I’m definitely not a fan of it, but just like every other change on there, the disappointment will wear away quickly, and people will stay. I’ve been on there from almost the beginning (back in the thefacebook.com days) and have been through every change that has occurred. People have made a big deal about each change initially, but in the end, not very many people actually leave in my opinion.

    I remember the heyday of Myspace and similar sites, and from the beginning, Myspace always looked like a steaming pile of feces, and its impending downfall was obvious. IMHO, I think the downfall of Facebook is not so clear cut, as they have some decent employees behind it. But the question is whether they can successfully monetize things on the mobile front, which was definitely noted when I listened in on their most recent earnings conference call. My thought for the time being is no.

         
  • Posted: 29 August 2012 11:36 AM #1045

    I give Facebook a quick glance each morning.

    I follow my Twitter feed constantly throughout the day. It’s my main source for local and world news, sports, food recipe ideas, music, etc. Plus it’s damn entertaining following the thoughts of my favorite athletes and celebrities.

         
  • Posted: 29 August 2012 12:33 PM #1046

    Anyone have thoughts about Yelp? At a market cap of $1.3B, it seems cheap to me relative to the value it may provide to Apple and Microsoft (via Bing), especially with iOS integration. Wouldn’t this be a natural target for Apple to buy at least a partial stake?

    Don’t know a whole lot about the company, except that I use the website. So would be interested in any thoughts.

         
  • Posted: 29 August 2012 12:39 PM #1047

    I assume you saw this already?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yelp&ql=1

         
  • Posted: 29 August 2012 12:42 PM #1048

    adamthompson32 - 29 August 2012 03:39 PM

    I assume you saw this already?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yelp&ql=1

    Yeah. I bought some shares this morning at $19.50 when I saw the stock was responding well to the lockup expiration this morning. My sense is that Yelp is the anti-Facebook, in more ways than just how it responded to lockup expiration. I also bought some Oct 12 Yelp calls in anticipation of the new Yelp visibility on iPhone come Sept.

    Def curious if anyone has given much thought to this company.

    [ Edited: 29 August 2012 12:45 PM by gliderplane ]      
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    Posted: 29 August 2012 01:05 PM #1049

    nkmho - 29 August 2012 02:45 AM

    People have made a big deal about each change initially, but in the end, not very many people actually leave in my opinion.

    No yet but for how long?  People will only put up with so much s**t before they’ve had enough.  tongue laugh

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
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    Posted: 29 August 2012 03:44 PM #1050

    Incorrigible - We’re now on the opposite sides of our FB trades!
    CL4 - You too, but less so since you have shorter-term puts (in other words, might go down, then up)

    To be clear, I’m not selling puts. Rather, bought FB shares and Jan’14 calls (strikes 25 and 50) ~3 weeks ago. Calls are already down 30% and 20%, respectively.

    To be clear, the combined bet is ~1.5% of my portfolio.

    My thinking is this: they have the network, they can afford to keep looking for a business model (which they don’t have, arguably). We know how strong network effects are from our experience with the iOS ecosystem. Well, in a social network the network effects are, by design, massive.

    I was one of the early users of FB in 2005 and hated it (in fact, had to email their small team back when they didn’t have a “close my account” feature). I came back in 2009 and was very active for 2 years while in business school. I never clicked on any ads, but then again I never click on any Google ads either, so I’m probably not a typical source of revenue. If Facebook’s network became more useful to me (e.g., integrating Yelp / Foursquare type functionality), I would be willing to pay a recurring monthly or yearly fee.

    Anyway, we’ll see where it shakes out.