“Other” stocks

  • Posted: 25 February 2011 11:54 PM #106

    Mace - 25 February 2011 06:57 AM
    Eric Landstrom - 24 February 2011 08:26 PM
    bilter2000 - 24 February 2011 07:31 PM

    Sold out of my EOG holdings this morning.  Locked in on a nice gain. 

    I’ll buy back in on any dips

    I was thinking that Tan made a nice 10% call on EOG but I didn’t realize other members of AFB had picked up EOG as well.

    I picked up too.  Just a small quantity so didn’t make much.

    This EOG lovefest has me puzzled.  What does everyone see that makes EOG better than DVN?  Or the admittedly less correlated OXY?

    Not knocking EOG.  Just wondering why it is viewed as best in class.

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2011 12:17 AM #107

    capablanca - 26 February 2011 03:54 AM
    Mace - 25 February 2011 06:57 AM

    I picked up too.  Just a small quantity so didn’t make much.

    This EOG lovefest has me puzzled.  What does everyone see that makes EOG better than DVN?  Or the admittedly less correlated OXY?

    Not knocking EOG.  Just wondering why it is viewed as best in class.

    No clue.  I bought it because TanToday said so :oops:, position closed.

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    Posted: 26 February 2011 12:23 AM #108

    capablanca - 26 February 2011 03:54 AM
    Mace - 25 February 2011 06:57 AM
    Eric Landstrom - 24 February 2011 08:26 PM
    bilter2000 - 24 February 2011 07:31 PM

    Sold out of my EOG holdings this morning.  Locked in on a nice gain. 

    I’ll buy back in on any dips

    I was thinking that Tan made a nice 10% call on EOG but I didn’t realize other members of AFB had picked up EOG as well.

    I picked up too.  Just a small quantity so didn’t make much.

    This EOG lovefest has me puzzled.  What does everyone see that makes EOG better than DVN?  Or the admittedly less correlated OXY?

    Not knocking EOG.  Just wondering why it is viewed as best in class.

    Jan 11th to February 4th..  on the daily chart..  the stock essentially stays outside of the accelleration bands all the way up to closing back inside on February 4th, with an exception that I would not of sweated, but only used as a stop out point on a daily close, from that day on.  I would of gotten in on the close on Jan 12th, then held that until Feb 4th.  Looking at the chart I would of taken some off at one point (probably 1/2) on one of the two days that it closed inside the accel bands.  I would of done that on the second day and given it one more day to see if it would continue to rebound.  I say all this because this is what I would HOPE that I would do..  but when the stock stays ramping up outside the accel bands I wouldn’t touch it until it doubled..  and then I’d only take off a little.  there is no point to do much if its still outside those bands. 

    Antoher issue is the Percent R (based on a thirty period setting) was reading overbought for that whole time too, indicating a strong buying trend in conjunction with the accel band action.

    This is what I see..  I don’t know anything about their fundamentals, what they produce/sell, etc.  and I honestly don’t care.  I do see that people were buying this up strong and steady.. and that’s what I look for.

    When you rock options on such strong trending action as what I indicated..  you make serious money.  You can play it safe too by selling on any close inside the accell bands.  To me.. this is one of the safest ways to make a shit load of money rather quickly.

    That chart action is exactly what I look for… I don’t think it could get any better than that except that it could of gone for a month-2 months like that..  and not just 3 weeks

    [ Edited: 26 February 2011 12:28 AM by blaze biscuits ]      
  • Posted: 26 February 2011 12:44 AM #109

    blaze biscuits - 26 February 2011 04:23 AM

    [...]
      I don’t know anything about their fundamentals, what they produce/sell, etc.  and I honestly don’t care.  I do see that people were buying this up strong and steady.. and that’s what I look for.

    When you rock options on such strong trending action as what I indicated..  you make serious money.  You can play it safe too by selling on any close inside the accell bands.  To me.. this is one of the safest ways to make a shit load of money rather quickly.

    That chart action is exactly what I look for… I don’t think it could get any better than that except that it could of gone for a month-2 months like that..  and not just 3 weeks

    Thank you.  Mystery solved. 

    FWIW, DVN has outpeformed EOG over the last 12 mos. and the last 6 mos.  So it has not been a dog.

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2011 12:52 AM #110

    capablanca - 26 February 2011 04:44 AM

    Thank you.  Mystery solved. 

    FWIW, DVN has outpeformed EOG over the last 12 mos. and the last 6 mos.  So it has not been a dog.

    thanks. I’m going to take a look at that right now

         
  • Posted: 26 February 2011 01:23 PM #111

    From a fundamental view EOG looks good From it’s position in the Bakken and DVN, with solid positions in natural gas, does as well. I have a fairly large position in OXY which has performed as well or better over the last couple of years as those two. It tracks oil fairly tightly but recently has shown some enhanced volatility which has helped me make a little additional on options. HES is another company which stands to benefit from the Bakken and for a little more speculative play there is OAS. If the ME settles down we could see a pull back on all of these.

    Interestingly the County I live in has become the center of attention of several companies whose land men are all over the courthouse paying amazingly high lease payments for drilling rights. Rumors have been floating for a couple of years but the activity has increased 10 fold lately. Becoming energy independent has suddenly taken on a whole new meaning.

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2011 07:20 PM #112

    Eric Landstrom - 24 February 2011 08:26 PM
    bilter2000 - 24 February 2011 07:31 PM

    Sold out of my EOG holdings this morning.  Locked in on a nice gain. 

    I’ll buy back in on any dips

    I was thinking that Tan made a nice 10% call on EOG but I didn’t realize other members of AFB had picked up EOG as well.

    Tan has upped his EOG to 3,000shrs, this one is going to be a MONSTER HUGE, maybe bigger. I started adding them when I “sniffed out” the potential they had in the BAKKEN SHALE {now a whopper and getting bigger } and they were rumbling on about EAGLE FORD SHALE { will most likely be the biggest find in the United States since Alaska } I have been adding shares on dips now for about 14 months.

    It will take another 6-9 months for the overall market to “get it” but the switchover to SHALE *OIL* is going to do for domestic oil, what SHALE GAS did for natural gas.

    Just between BAKKEN and EAGLE FORD {ignoring the other three potential HUGE fields} those two ALONE will more than DOUBLE the amount of recoverable oil in the USA, and you have NO political risk {other than the domestic greenies and socialists in DC } to contend with.

    For those that doubt this, I have uploaded the most recent investor presentation in PDF for those that care to look over things, I must warn you however, if you are brand new to oil production presentations, some things will be difficult to grasp, but over time that becomes like everything else, doable.

    FWIW, I have personally dealt with EOG on a MARCELLUS SHALE lease, and have personally inspected over 15 of their drilling operations. They are a first class operation, and typically VERY conservative and remind me of Warren Buffet, upfront, honest, and clearly operating above board and transparently.

    I’m calling this one >$200+/share by EOY 2011 and a triple over the next 18 months.

    CLICK HERE: ->
    http://snipr.com/25gmlm-erh

    What makes this a “Stealth Stock” is for NOW, as they redeploy assets and rigs, their income in DROPPING, { for those that don’t know how this works, you come in and lease land, build out pipelines, and lay out HUGE bucks, for 12-24 months before you take the first dollar out of a new field } making it look as if the company isn’t doing well, but that keeps the real sharks away, and allows for aquistions now BEFORE it becomes common knowledge just how HUGE shale oils { they have only been producing this way for oil now for under a year anywhere } is going to become, this alone will make us domestically independent, along with the massive change in natural gas from shales.

    [ Edited: 26 February 2011 07:37 PM by TanToday ]

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Posted: 26 February 2011 10:23 PM #113

    TanToday - 26 February 2011 11:20 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 24 February 2011 08:26 PM
    bilter2000 - 24 February 2011 07:31 PM

    Sold out of my EOG holdings this morning.  Locked in on a nice gain. 

    I’ll buy back in on any dips

    I was thinking that Tan made a nice 10% call on EOG but I didn’t realize other members of AFB had picked up EOG as well.

    Tan has upped his EOG to 3,000shrs, this one is going to be a MONSTER HUGE, maybe bigger. I started adding them when I “sniffed out” the potential they had in the BAKKEN SHALE {now a whopper and getting bigger } and they were rumbling on about EAGLE FORD SHALE { will most likely be the biggest find in the United States since Alaska } I have been adding shares on dips now for about 14 months.

    It will take another 6-9 months for the overall market to “get it” but the switchover to SHALE *OIL* is going to do for domestic oil, what SHALE GAS did for natural gas.

    Just between BAKKEN and EAGLE FORD {ignoring the other three potential HUGE fields} those two ALONE will more than DOUBLE the amount of recoverable oil in the USA, and you have NO political risk {other than the domestic greenies and socialists in DC } to contend with.

    For those that doubt this, I have uploaded the most recent investor presentation in PDF for those that care to look over things, I must warn you however, if you are brand new to oil production presentations, some things will be difficult to grasp, but over time that becomes like everything else, doable.

    FWIW, I have personally dealt with EOG on a MARCELLUS SHALE lease, and have personally inspected over 15 of their drilling operations. They are a first class operation, and typically VERY conservative and remind me of Warren Buffet, upfront, honest, and clearly operating above board and transparently.

    I’m calling this one >$200+/share by EOY 2011 and a triple over the next 18 months.

    CLICK HERE: ->
    http://snipr.com/25gmlm-erh

    What makes this a “Stealth Stock” is for NOW, as they redeploy assets and rigs, their income in DROPPING, { for those that don’t know how this works, you come in and lease land, build out pipelines, and lay out HUGE bucks, for 12-24 months before you take the first dollar out of a new field } making it look as if the company isn’t doing well, but that keeps the real sharks away, and allows for aquistions now BEFORE it becomes common knowledge just how HUGE shale oils { they have only been producing this way for oil now for under a year anywhere } is going to become, this alone will make us domestically independent, along with the massive change in natural gas from shales.

    I don’t disagree with your major premise or much else for that matter.  EOG is the leader at Eagle Ford and a leader at Bakken/Three Forks.  Combined they have 1.3B barrels of unproven reserves that EOG is working to move into the proved column.  EOG is also a leader in converting from horizontal gas drilling to oil drilling.

    Maybe where we part company is on the necessity of being in Bakken.  Bakken is huge; I have been watching it and investing in it since ‘06 when I visited Williston.  But there are many other shale plays of major importance.  DVN is is a first mover in Barnett and Wooford.  They also have a big position in the Alberta Oil Sands at Jackfish with a 20 year reserve life.  I like the oil sands in an environment of >$100 prices.  I also like a Canada/US split; you may be right there is no political risk in the US, but if this guy gets re-elected, I am not so sure.

    Both DVN and EOG are about half gas and half oil right now.  DVN may retain this balance longer than EOG, but that does not scare me either.  Nat gas is going to come back and come back big.  Each are similar size.  Each have good balance sheets.  DVN has slightly longer reserve life overall, but this may even out as more Bakken reserves become proven.  DVN has a slightly lower EV/EBitda, but your thesis regarding current results may be correct.

    If one wants an almost pure play on horizontal drilling, I recommend HP.  I have owned it for six years and highlighted it on AFB a few years ago.  Great management; great technology; strong balance sheet; industry leader.

         
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    Posted: 27 February 2011 11:18 AM #114

    blaze biscuits - 26 February 2011 04:23 AM

    Jan 11th to February 4th..  on the daily chart..  the stock essentially stays outside of the accelleration bands all the way up to closing back inside on February 4th, with an exception that I would not of sweated, but only used as a stop out point on a daily close, from that day on.  I would of gotten in on the close on Jan 12th, then held that until Feb 4th.  Looking at the chart I would of taken some off at one point (probably 1/2) on one of the two days that it closed inside the accel bands.  I would of done that on the second day and given it one more day to see if it would continue to rebound.  I say all this because this is what I would HOPE that I would do..  but when the stock stays ramping up outside the accel bands I wouldn’t touch it until it doubled..  and then I’d only take off a little.  there is no point to do much if its still outside those bands. 

    Antoher issue is the Percent R (based on a thirty period setting) was reading overbought for that whole time too, indicating a strong buying trend in conjunction with the accel band action.

    This is what I see..  I don’t know anything about their fundamentals, what they produce/sell, etc.  and I honestly don’t care.  I do see that people were buying this up strong and steady.. and that’s what I look for.


    Blaze, I really am a fan, sir!  I learn—and laugh!—so much from your posts!  Above is a great example…learning in the beginning part…laughing at the end remembering your earlier reference to poo-covered pretzels in Central Park! smile

    Question for you: are you still trading LULU?  Care to share your experience?  I’ve been on the wrong side of my very brief time with that one.  Bought shares in January, not intending to trade, just hold.  Immediately after buying, regretted not selling puts.  Stock went down; sold covered calls.  Stock went up; rolled calls out a month.  Stock went down; debated closing out covered call.  Admitted I don’t know squat about trading LULU, never intended to trade LULU, must stop trading LULU.  Did nothing.  Stock went up.  Now, I’m thinking I need to fish or cut bait on this one…this half-a**ing is the supreme in stupidity.

    Would love to hear your experience, if you would please… smile

         
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    Posted: 03 March 2011 12:07 AM #115

    lovemyipad - 27 February 2011 03:18 PM
    blaze biscuits - 26 February 2011 04:23 AM

    Jan 11th to February 4th..  on the daily chart..  the stock essentially stays outside of the accelleration bands all the way up to closing back inside on February 4th, with an exception that I would not of sweated, but only used as a stop out point on a daily close, from that day on.  I would of gotten in on the close on Jan 12th, then held that until Feb 4th.  Looking at the chart I would of taken some off at one point (probably 1/2) on one of the two days that it closed inside the accel bands.  I would of done that on the second day and given it one more day to see if it would continue to rebound.  I say all this because this is what I would HOPE that I would do..  but when the stock stays ramping up outside the accel bands I wouldn’t touch it until it doubled..  and then I’d only take off a little.  there is no point to do much if its still outside those bands. 

    Antoher issue is the Percent R (based on a thirty period setting) was reading overbought for that whole time too, indicating a strong buying trend in conjunction with the accel band action.

    This is what I see..  I don’t know anything about their fundamentals, what they produce/sell, etc.  and I honestly don’t care.  I do see that people were buying this up strong and steady.. and that’s what I look for.


    Blaze, I really am a fan, sir!  I learn—and laugh!—so much from your posts!  Above is a great example…learning in the beginning part…laughing at the end remembering your earlier reference to poo-covered pretzels in Central Park! smile

    Question for you: are you still trading LULU?  Care to share your experience?  I’ve been on the wrong side of my very brief time with that one.  Bought shares in January, not intending to trade, just hold.  Immediately after buying, regretted not selling puts.  Stock went down; sold covered calls.  Stock went up; rolled calls out a month.  Stock went down; debated closing out covered call.  Admitted I don’t know squat about trading LULU, never intended to trade LULU, must stop trading LULU.  Did nothing.  Stock went up.  Now, I’m thinking I need to fish or cut bait on this one…this half-a**ing is the supreme in stupidity.

    Would love to hear your experience, if you would please… smile

    lol.  I do remember the poo covered pretzels in central park theme.  I thought maybe that was ‘too gross’ for people here, as I got no respones.  I particularily thought that was very funny.  smile

    I think right now with lulu there is too much overall fear in the markets and I think those high-fliers got sold as a result of that.  Looking at DECK, LULU, FFIV, CRM (yes I know that CRM and FFIV even have sold off for different reasons possibly, but still)..

    I would look for them to pick back up in a bit.. as I heard DECK blew earnings out (although I didn’t check their report or listen to the C.Call yet).. 

    I honestly don’t know what to do with LULU except to watch for it to pick up based on the %R (set to 30 periods and a POSITIVE scale)

    A good person to learn this from is Price Headley, he is the one who designed acceleration bands (which most platforms offer) as well as he is the one who uses the percent R based on a 30 day period as opposed to the standard 10 or 14.  the 10 or 14 reads too choppy and the 30 period smoothes things out.

    I honestly don’t know about LULU as an investment per se..  I just know that it is a growth stock with prospects that can be quantified as say Wal-marts growth can (or at least you can get closer with Wal-Marts)

    This is the recipe for a blowout stock..  when the growth is huge and can’t be quantified.  This is just my obvservations and theory.  Again, I’m not sure what to do with LULU now except to watch for it to pick up.. and I would be watching the %R first.  that works well for LULU in the back testing I have done for this stock.  I also use the MAC-D set to 25 periods..  when the green crosses the red.. look for the %R to read 80..  these two things in conjunction usually equals “party-time” with an unquantifiable ‘in-vogue’ growth stock

    EDIT: you can see Price Headley webinars (replays and live ones) on OptionMonster.com.  also..  he has his own site @ bigtrends.com

    OptionMonster is the Najarians site from fast money as well as TradeMonster is their brokerage site.

    Anyone interested in trading options would be well advised to at LEAST check out their platform.  you can trade virtually and get all of the services (minus a few inconsequential ones) for free.  I use this for the majority of my research and applications.

    [ Edited: 03 March 2011 12:11 AM by blaze biscuits ]      
  • Posted: 03 March 2011 12:46 AM #116

    For EOG fans on this thread, there was a very impressive reversal Tuesday (today) on big volume.  Also filled a gap from a couple of weeks ago.

         
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    Posted: 03 March 2011 05:51 PM #117

    capablanca - 03 March 2011 04:46 AM

    For EOG fans on this thread, there was a very impressive reversal Tuesday (today) on big volume.  Also filled a gap from a couple of weeks ago.

    What “happened” is that EOG issued 11 million new shares priced at $105.50. A few days before, it was trading around $114.00.

    Essentially, moving from gas to shale OILS means they have laid out tons of bucks to aquire new leases, and are now implementing these new fields, but fitting them up, drilling, and pipelines out cost money.

    They had hoped to sell off some legacy Nat Gas fields to cover the “income gap” as the new shale oils comes online, but one deal fell through, and they actually found out the fields were better than they had thought, so they decided to hold them.

    That would have meant taking on a foreign firm as a JV [joint venture partner] and splitting the resultant future income with them forever on the fields so encumbered. Recent deals like with Chesapeak have been 40-60 deals or thereabouts. That means they would have given up 40% of all upside for the bridge cash needed to get these new fields like EAGLE FORD and NIOBRARA along with the BAKKEN fully producing.

    Or…

    They could have borrowed the money at 5-6% or so.

    They elected to issue the stock, thereby diluting the shares by 8%, which cost them nothing, no interest, and it avoids a JV perpetual hit.

    All in all, this is a VERY GOOD MOVE, but the market doesn’t “get” what these firms shifting over from Nat GAs to Shale Oils are faced with, and the timeframes involved.

    It provided a unique buying opportunity, and I added 200 shares at $105.58 and loaded up on Jan 2011 110 leaps.

    I hope that gives some insight into what happened and IS happening with EOG as they transition to the largest oil finds [Eagle Ford/Bakken] in the entire United States for the past 15 years.

    Those that are patient, and lay down positions today, in EOG will be well rewarded when oil continues its relentless climb, as the crazies in the Middle East do their Allah Akhbar thing.

    Signature

    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Posted: 04 March 2011 01:06 AM #118

    More on Bakken.  The image below (from youtube) claims to shows spud wells drilled during 2010.  It looks credible to me, but I have not verified it.

    The number of wells is not, of course, the sole metric.  The amount and quality of acreage, as well as other yardsticks are just as important.  But this does back up Tan’s point that EOG is the leader in Bakken. 

    My own Bakken investments were in OXY, XTO, EOG, and WLL.  XTO was bought out by XON, and I swapped my EOG into DVN.  So WLL and OXY are my sole remaining big investments there.  I still have large postions in Barnett Shale, Woodford Shale, Canadian Oil Sands, Alberta gas, and smaller positions elsewhere in North America onshore.

    The only company I know of with more acreage in Bakken than EOG would be HES.  But HES has large downstream assets and other holdings that I find less appealing than EOG, OXY, DVN, WLL, ECA, COSWF, SU, IMO, and BIREF. 

    A derivative play, in addition to my favorite derivitive, Helmerich and Payne (HP), is Canadian Western Bank (CBWBF).  It is headquartered in Calgary and is the largest bank in Canada which focuses on western Canada. 

         
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    Posted: 05 March 2011 10:56 PM #119

    Unique - 03 March 2011 08:52 PM

    Just placed a small gamble on lululemon. Figured it was worth a shot.

    Fingers crossed for you—let us know how it goes!


    Blaze, thank you!

         
  • Posted: 10 March 2011 04:58 PM #120

    I bought back into EOG today.  Jan12 105 calls for 11.25.  The weakness in energy today has GOT to be overblown…....  Doesn’t it???  wink