“Other” stocks

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    Posted: 09 May 2012 10:45 PM #976

    Any one looking at VVUS? It has pulled back frm the FDA approval of their ED drug. FDA to rule on their diabetes drug in July. The prognosis looks favorable for approval.

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    Posted: 09 May 2012 11:34 PM #977

    Askelands - 09 May 2012 10:52 PM

    Hi guys,

    I did not know if I could post this here but I didn’t want to flood the forum with new questions.

    I was reading an article on early options assignment and came across with some comment that said “early assignment is NEVER a problem (unless trading OEX options ? and why in the world would anyone want to do that?)”

    I did a Google search to try to find exactly why, and since OEX it is actually the ticker for the OEX? S&P 100TM Index Options, I did not understand what this person meant by “why in the world would anyone want to do that?”

    I found that the OEX is actually the only Index that has an American-style setup. Is this the reason why this person said that? If so, my understanding was that European-style options are less risky?

    So, my two questions are:

    1. Why would this person propose that trading OEX options may be a problem?

    2. Although this is not too related to the previous question, I’ve been wanting to clarify this for a while so I will take the opportunity now:
    How are Indices and its ETF’s related (like the S&P500; and the SPIDERS)?
    ie. What should one be looking at if, let’s say, you wanted to take a broad look at the market?

    Thanks for your comments!

    Here’s a good explanation on avoiding short positions on OEX: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/09/early-exercise-oex.asp
    The main issue is:

    - When assigned on a cash-settled OEX option, you are obligated to repurchase the option at last night’s intrinsic value.
    - You don’t learn that you have been assigned until the following morning, before the market opens for trading.

    European-style options don’t have this problem because they can only be exercised at expiration.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2012 06:13 PM #978

    stkstalker - 10 May 2012 01:45 AM

    Any one looking at VVUS? It has pulled back frm the FDA approval of their ED drug. FDA to rule on their diabetes drug in July. The prognosis looks favorable for approval.

    heck yeah.
    I’m long on VVUS and ARNA.
    ARNA’s drug Lorcaserin just got approved by an FDA panel for phase 4 trials and will go before the final board in June I believe.

    VVUS drug QNEXA and ARNA Lorcaserin will be competitors, but they will likely be the only two FDA approved obesity drugs.

    My ARNA Calls should give a 6-baggers tomorrow.
    Gonna dump the Mays tomorrow and hold fast on the Julys.

    What a day!

         
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    Posted: 15 May 2012 07:31 PM #979

    I succumbed to temptation: AMZN puts.

    I did not dare touch NFLX.  That stock rarely does what I expect—up or down—and I don’t watch it closely enough intraday to “trade what I see, not what I expect to see.”

         
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    Posted: 15 May 2012 08:22 PM #980

    LQMT doesn’t trade in the after-hours I guess, since it’s a OTC BB stock or something?

    We’ll see how it trades tomorrow.  Underwhelming numbers, though not exactly a surprise either.

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  • Posted: 15 May 2012 09:29 PM #981

    lovemyipad - 15 May 2012 10:31 PM

    I succumbed to temptation: AMZN puts.

    I did not dare touch NFLX.  That stock rarely does what I expect—up or down—and I don’t watch it closely enough intraday to “trade what I see, not what I expect to see.”

    You are a braver soul than I am….go for it!

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    Posted: 15 May 2012 10:27 PM #982

    stkstalker - 10 May 2012 01:45 AM

    Any one looking at VVUS? It has pulled back frm the FDA approval of their ED drug. FDA to rule on their diabetes drug in July. The prognosis looks favorable for approval.

    I used to work for VVUS, back in the days when they had an erectile dysfunction drug, which was approved in 4Q97.  I get there in Feb. ‘98, and the next month Viagra gets approved.  Monthly sales went from about $50MM to $5MM.  Needless to say, company had a major staff reduction (approx. 60%).

    But I always thought their science was suspect, and I wouldn’t touch this stock with the proverbial 10-foot pole.

         
  • Posted: 16 May 2012 12:16 AM #983

    lovemyipad - 15 May 2012 10:31 PM

    I succumbed to temptation: AMZN puts.

    [...]

    I like this trade.  But I have a poor record trying to make money shorting AMZN.

    IV reasonable and will likely climb into earnings.  RSI divergence on the weekly. Stochastics high on both daily and weekly.  Force index bearish. Competition coming for their server rental business.  And, of course, the ridiculous valuation.

    What expiry?

         
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    Posted: 16 May 2012 12:37 AM #984

    capablanca - 16 May 2012 03:16 AM
    lovemyipad - 15 May 2012 10:31 PM

    I succumbed to temptation: AMZN puts.

    [...]

    I like this trade.  But I have a poor record trying to make money shorting AMZN.

    IV reasonable and will likely climb into earnings.  RSI divergence on the weekly. Stochastics high on both daily and weekly.  Force index bearish. Competition coming for their server rental business.  And, of course, the ridiculous valuation.

    What expiry?

    AMZN JUL’12 230 puts.  In addition to everything you mentioned, I’m eyeing the negative sloping daily MACD-h and that big ole gap that needs filling sooner or later. wink

         
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    Posted: 16 May 2012 12:41 AM #985

    Other high-beta short candidates to watch (I need to study these charts further): PCLN, CMG, GOOG

    And, of course, the banks…

         
  • Posted: 16 May 2012 08:21 PM #986

    lovemyipad - 16 May 2012 03:37 AM

    [...]

    AMZN JUL’12 230 puts.  In addition to everything you mentioned, I’m eyeing the negative sloping daily MACD-h and that big ole gap that needs filling sooner or later. wink


    MACD-h on the weekly is still positive.  But that does not mean the gap cannot fill.

         
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    Posted: 16 May 2012 10:29 PM #987

    RE: AMZN…took my money and ran…bought puts around 230-ish and sold around 223-ish.  I’d rather take profits too early than losses too late. smile

         
  • Posted: 16 May 2012 10:48 PM #988

    lovemyipad - 16 May 2012 03:41 AM

    Other high-beta short candidates to watch (I need to study these charts further): PCLN, CMG, GOOG

    And, of course, the banks…

    I have tried PCLN for hotels a number of times, without success.  This stock is the biggest truckload of manure trading as perfume I’ve ever witnessed.

         
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    Posted: 16 May 2012 10:52 PM #989

    Higher on your stink list than AMZN?!?

         
  • Posted: 16 May 2012 10:58 PM #990

    lovemyipad - 17 May 2012 01:52 AM

    Higher on your stink list than AMZN?!?


    Yes.  I buy stuff from Amazon.  I’ve never been successful with Priceline.