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The Macintosh Revenue Paradox
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I was thinking of just the laptops. I wasn’t sure on the price* unit sales matrix.
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DawnTreader
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I was thinking of just the laptops. I wasn’t sure on the price* unit sales matrix.
By the way, if there is heavy demand for the new laptops along with better-than-expected iPhone unit sales, $6 in eps isn’t out of the question.
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DawnTreader
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My latest missive at Eventide.
Snippet: In the recent December quarter, Macintosh CPU sales produced revenue of over $5.4 billion yet represented just over 20% of Apple’s reported revenue. To put the Mac’s unit’s revenue performance in a broader perspective, in FY2011 Macintosh CPU sales will produce revenue at or above $21 billion and revenue from Mac sales will exceed Apple’s revenue from all sources as recently as FY2006. This paradox of record revenue and declining percentage of revenue contribution to Apple’s overall results is due of course to the popularity of Apple’s iOS-based products such as the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad.
It really is only in comparison to the current success of the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad that the continuing success of the Mac could be overshadowed.
Back on topic for a moment…
I’m planning to post what I consider the most exhaustive review of the Mac’s performance I’ve ever seen sometime over the next two weeks. There are some details that are turning out to be a bit surprising.
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It’s a tough one. 2009 was a rough year in PC land and 2010 may have been a “catch up” year. Also, the Q4 ‘10 and Q1 ‘11 results may be hinting at Mac growth deceleration, to which that “pretty good” feeling cannibalization (Tim Cook’s words, not mine!
) by iPad must play some role.I’d probably model Mac unit growth of around 25-27% YOY even being optimistic. I have a feeling that the days of low 30s% YOY unit growth are behind us. 20%-ish YOY growth is the new normal for this year, IMHO.
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danthemason
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There is that pesky halo effect from iOS devices. 30 % and above for next 4 quarters.
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PurpleApple
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There is that pesky halo effect from iOS devices. 30 % and above for next 4 quarters.
I agree, and I think we will see Mac acceleration in both consumer market and in the enterprise.
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There is that pesky halo effect from iOS devices. 30 % and above for next 4 quarters.
I agree, and I think we will see Mac acceleration in both consumer market and in the enterprise.
+1
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I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!
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Gregg Thurman
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I’d probably model Mac unit growth of around 25-27% YOY even being optimistic. I have a feeling that the days of low 30s% YOY unit growth are behind us. 20%-ish YOY growth is the new normal for this year, IMHO.
I don’t think you can treat iPad unit sales separate from computer sales. The reality is that iPads are both augmenting, and replacing, laptop (primarily Wintels?) sales.
Beyond that, in a paradigm shift, such as believe is going to happen starting in 2011, Mac unit sales are going to accelerate, and will continue to do so until the new paradigm is established.
Read “Inside the Tornado: Marketing in the Silicon Valley”. This book was written 20 some years ago and describes the process of a paradigm shift. In my estimation Apple products have hit the inflection point referred to as a “Tornado”.
Growth from here is going to be mind boggling.
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There is that pesky halo effect from iOS devices. 30 % and above for next 4 quarters.
I agree, and I think we will see Mac acceleration in both consumer market and in the enterprise.
And let’s not forget the Mac App Store effect.
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Well then, I’ll be the relative AAPL bear when it comes to anticipated Mac growth rate for this quarter. The Mac App Store is nice, but it’ll take quite a bit more time to really get going (in part because Lion is the OS the Store will integrate best with). I’d love to be wrong on this, btw.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
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DawnTreader
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Please see my follow-up post to this topic titled The Apple Macintosh: Success In The Era of Handheld Devices.
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Well then, I’ll be the relative AAPL bear when it comes to anticipated Mac growth rate for this quarter. The Mac App Store is nice, but it’ll take quite a bit more time to really get going (in part because Lion is the OS the Store will integrate best with). I’d love to be wrong on this, btw.
I like the store. I’m surprised by the number of professional grade apps that are available. If I need something for my Mac access is as close as the icon in my dock.
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John Molloy
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The Mac App Store is nice, but it’ll take quite a bit more time to really get going (in part because Lion is the OS the Store will integrate best with). I’d love to be wrong on this, btw.
You are spot on with this comment. There are things that the App Store does in Snow Leopard that makes no sense - specifically adding apps to the dock so you end up with an over stuffed dock. It was definitely a stop gap solution.
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There are things that the App Store does in Snow Leopard that makes no sense - specifically adding apps to the dock so you end up with an over stuffed dock. It was definitely a stop gap solution.
:-o
If they hadn’t put the newly purchased App on the dock then 9 out of 10 people wouldn’t have known where to look for it.
Where do you think Apple is going to put newly downloaded programs when Lion is available?
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DawnTreader
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Well then, I’ll be the relative AAPL bear when it comes to anticipated Mac growth rate for this quarter. The Mac App Store is nice, but it’ll take quite a bit more time to really get going (in part because Lion is the OS the Store will integrate best with). I’d love to be wrong on this, btw.
However, for consumers new to the Mac the app store is a decided feature. Low-cost apps instantly accessible and without trial software automatically loaded, no CDs or DVDs to purchase and store and an overall experience with the consumer in mind. It’s a decided plus when introducing the Mac to potential customers new to the platform.
