AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 31 January 2011 12:39 PM #16

    Upbeat economic releases this morning. Persoal income up 0.4% showing real disposable incomes continue to rise as saving rates dropping modestly and debt service as a percentage of income at a 10 year low while liabilities drop relative to assets. Consumer spending rising 0.7% with real consumption indicative of a near 4% rise in q1 2011 spending. Montly core PCE was flat, with a cumulative rise of 0.7% for the full year and at a five-year low. Well below Fed?s intended target of around 2% PCE, indicative that the federal funds rates will likely stay close to zero for the time being and some.


    Chicago PMI at 68.8 higher than 65 consensus, consistent with previous reports showing continued strength in the economy and prices.


    The Fade weighed on the gap up opening, but stocks held near Friday?s close. No follow through yet. Breath has improved a bit with 2700 advancers for 2400 decliners. Markets are stabilizing as we get closer to noon.


    USDX at 77.68 -0.77%. Getting weaker, consistent with players getting back to risk bets. Euro at $1.3704 up 0.70%. FXE at 136,44 up 0.64%. Raise on optimism that European leaders have shown they can stabilize the currency.

    DJI at 11,848 gaining 24.53 points up 24.30%

    SPX at 1281.92 up 0.43%

    NDX at 2272 up 0.10%

    RUT at 780.35 up 0.64%

    VIX at 19.62 down -2.10%

    BKX at 52.93 up 0.99%. XLF at 16.37 up 0.74%. BAC at $13.74 up 1.10%, JPM at $44.79 up 0.61% and C at $4.79 up 1.38%. Financials leading the rebound.
    CAT at 96.93 up 1.33%, F lagging at $16.14 down 0.86%. INTC at $21.34 down -0.61% after disclosing problems with a chip error. AMZN at 169.46 down -1.01%, GOOG at $600.28 struggling with breakeaven flat now. XOM at $79.73 up 0.94% after upbeat release. Oil futures up to $90 a barrel.

    AAPL at $338.32 gaining $2.20 up 0.65%. Volume at almost 6 million shares traded.  Low $334.30 and high $338.70 today. Good showing!


    Still some indecisiveness, but shorts are being cornered. Constructive, but still need to watch further.

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 12:40 PM #17

    adamthompson3232 - 31 January 2011 04:19 PM

    We did see a major uptick in F1Q11 Mac sales, up 23%. Of course, this wasn’t quite as good as previous quarters but it was a nice increase compared to industry growth of 3%.

    Did you mean that we’ll see larger growth than 23% in calendar Q1?

    Yes for several reasons.  There are millions of Mac owners like myself that bought in 2007 and 2008 when 10.5 came out.  The economy took a big hit in 2008 and Mac sales slowed down dramatically from 44% growth in end of 2007 to 9% growth at end of 2008.  We have slowly recovered but not back to 35% growth that I would consider normal.

    Lion and a revamped iMac, combined with a stronger economy should put us up there around 35% by the end of this year.  So we should 5.6 million Mac’s sold.

    Add to that better and faster MacBook Airs, and the Halo affect from the Verizon iPHone and iPad kicking in, and add in more China stores, and suddenly 6 million becomes a real possibility.  Apple makes its most profit on Macs given the $1300 average price.

    By the way I am modeling a 20 p/e for the next 10 years with eps of 100 by 2021.  I wish we could go higher but unless Apple starts to show WS what it will do with the cash and iPhone and iPad sales make up 50% of revenue consistently for 5 years straight, I don’t see them giving us a higher PE.  Of course if we split all bets are off since I think demand for Apple stock will increase so much that p/e will go up with the price.

    WS still think Apple is lucky with the iPod, iPad, and iPhone and its luck will run out.  I disagree but I have to go along for the slow ride which I really don’t mind.

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 12:54 PM #18

    omacvi - 31 January 2011 04:40 PM

    ... we split all bets are off since I think demand for Apple stock will increase so much that p/e will go up with the price ...

    My archived note indicates that AAPL rallied upon announcement of split and fell back to original market cap once split is effected.  Can some1 verify this?

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    Posted: 31 January 2011 01:31 PM #19

    Mace - 31 January 2011 04:54 PM
    omacvi - 31 January 2011 04:40 PM

    ... we split all bets are off since I think demand for Apple stock will increase so much that p/e will go up with the price ...

    My archived note indicates that AAPL rallied upon announcement of split and fell back to original market cap once split is effected.  Can some1 verify this?

    Announced the split on Feb 11., 2005. Got an 11% bump in about 4 days and then had approx. 25% correction along with the Dow which went from 11030 to 10,000 and bounced around all year and finally made it back to the 11,000 area. Apple had a nice reversal off those lows of $34 to $86 by Jan 2006.

         
  • Posted: 31 January 2011 02:26 PM #20

    http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/01/31/samsung.admits.galaxy.tab.sales.poorer.than.claims/

    Finally, the truth about Samsung Tab “Sales” starts to come out. We knew it all along….

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 03:02 PM #21

    ChasMac77 - 31 January 2011 05:31 PM
    Mace - 31 January 2011 04:54 PM
    omacvi - 31 January 2011 04:40 PM

    ... we split all bets are off since I think demand for Apple stock will increase so much that p/e will go up with the price ...

    My archived note indicates that AAPL rallied upon announcement of split and fell back to original market cap once split is effected.  Can some1 verify this?

    Announced the split on Feb 11., 2005. Got an 11% bump in about 4 days and then had approx. 25% correction along with the Dow which went from 11030 to 10,000 and bounced around all year and finally made it back to the 11,000 area. Apple had a nice reversal off those lows of $34 to $86 by Jan 2006.

    Keep in mind that AAPL increased over 170% within 16 months after it split.

    Someone should look at p/e for that time frame.

    [ Edited: 31 January 2011 03:04 PM by omacvi ]      
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 06:12 PM #22

    Unique - 31 January 2011 09:44 PM
    JRay - 31 January 2011 06:26 PM

    http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/01/31/samsung.admits.galaxy.tab.sales.poorer.than.claims/

    Finally, the truth about Samsung Tab “Sales” starts to come out. We knew it all along….

    Nice find, I knew they were in trouble when they had to slash prices.

    I travel a lot and I tend to pay attention to what people are using for their personal technology. I see tons of Ipads and plenty of Kindles. Even a Nook now and then. I have never seen a Galaxy Tab. 

    Hardly the Ipad killer.  Bring on the Zoom!

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 06:17 PM #23

    Refer to this chart on what happen after AAPL split.

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
  • Posted: 31 January 2011 06:29 PM #24

    MarketWatch finally decided to post correct values for AAPL EPS and P/E ratio!

    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AAPL?CountryCode=US

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 06:35 PM #25

    Red shirted ensign - 31 January 2011 10:12 PM
    Unique - 31 January 2011 09:44 PM
    JRay - 31 January 2011 06:26 PM

    http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/01/31/samsung.admits.galaxy.tab.sales.poorer.than.claims/

    Finally, the truth about Samsung Tab “Sales” starts to come out. We knew it all along….

    Nice find, I knew they were in trouble when they had to slash prices.

    I travel a lot and I tend to pay attention to what people are using for their personal technology. I see tons of Ipads and plenty of Kindles. Even a Nook now and then. I have never seen a Galaxy Tab. 

    Hardly the Ipad killer.  Bring on the Zoom!

    You mean the exhume tablet right? could not be more appropriately named.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 06:41 PM #26

    iOSWeekly - 31 January 2011 10:35 PM
    Red shirted ensign - 31 January 2011 10:12 PM
    Unique - 31 January 2011 09:44 PM
    JRay - 31 January 2011 06:26 PM

    http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/01/31/samsung.admits.galaxy.tab.sales.poorer.than.claims/

    Finally, the truth about Samsung Tab “Sales” starts to come out. We knew it all along….

    Nice find, I knew they were in trouble when they had to slash prices.

    I travel a lot and I tend to pay attention to what people are using for their personal technology. I see tons of Ipads and plenty of Kindles. Even a Nook now and then. I have never seen a Galaxy Tab. 

    Hardly the Ipad killer.  Bring on the Zoom!

    You mean the exhume tablet right? could not be more appropriately named.

    Yes, the xxxxxxx ooooom. Sorry.

    And check out their advertising campaign. Its 1984 all over again. As one person so ably put it, this is Game On.

    http://www.9to5mac.com/49965/oh-dang-motorola-just-went-there-with-their-superbowl-ad

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 06:44 PM #27

    Mace - 31 January 2011 10:17 PM

    Refer to this chart on what happen after AAPL split.

    Keep in mind that the 2000 split came at the doorstep of a recession.

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 06:47 PM #28

    adamthompson3232 - 31 January 2011 10:41 PM

    I saw my first galaxy tab in the wild yesterday at a birthday party at a sports bar. The owner was too drunk for me to talk to him much but he is a friend of a friend so at some point I will quiz him about it. He did say he “loves it” and he was carrying it in the back pocket of his jeans. I saw him check email an a lot of sports scores on it. I was shocked when he pulled it out ad it’s the only one I’ve ever seen.

    Was he wearing these? grin

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 07:23 PM #29

    Red shirted ensign - 31 January 2011 10:41 PM

    And check out their advertising campaign. Its 1984 all over again. As one person so ably put it, this is Game On.

    http://www.9to5mac.com/49965/oh-dang-motorola-just-went-there-with-their-superbowl-ad

    I’ve been wondering for some time if Apple is planning a Super Bowl ad. Hard to believe iPad 2 won’t match or exceed all those specs. I’m hoping Apple doesn’t dick around until April and let all the bottom feeders get a head start.

    iPad 1.0 was announced on 1/27/10…

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2011 07:31 PM #30

    Oh, and while we’re talking about Super Bowl ads, here’s yet more evidence of SJ’s vision.

    Apple Execs Hated The “1984” Ad And Almost Killed It

    Later, when Steve Jobs and Mike Murray played the spot for Apple’s board of directors, every single one of them hated it and chairman Mike Markula asked if they could fire the ad agency.

    Fortunately, they left the final decision to Jobs and Murray. Jobs recognized that the spot would create huge buzz—he also worried that it would create an “information vacuum” about the Mac, so he ordered a big print campaign to explain how it was different from the green-screen DOS computers that were common at the time.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007