Android - The Thorn In Apple’s Side?

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    Posted: 04 February 2011 06:24 PM #106

    FalKirk - 04 February 2011 09:45 PM

    @Drew Bear: I don’t think I’ve taken the time to welcome you to the AFB. Welcome! Looking forward to your future contributions.

    Thanks, FalKirk. This board came to my attention when Fortune posted the “Amateurs vs Professionals” rankings. Belated congrats to the 4 of you who were in the top 10. I assume pats was the big kahuna for last quarter? It’ll take a while to match the handles with the names. No matter. I’m here to learn.

         
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    Posted: 04 February 2011 06:50 PM #107

    Drew Bear - 04 February 2011 10:24 PM
    FalKirk - 04 February 2011 09:45 PM

    @Drew Bear: I don’t think I’ve taken the time to welcome you to the AFB. Welcome! Looking forward to your future contributions.

    Thanks, FalKirk. This board came to my attention when Fortune posted the “Amateurs vs Professionals” rankings. Belated congrats to the 4 of you who were in the top 10. I assume pats was the big kahuna for last quarter? It’ll take a while to match the handles with the names. No matter. I’m here to learn.

    One of my favorite sayings, even a blind squirrel gets a few nuts :wink:  Welcome aboard, we are always looking for new insight.  I would say the bench is deep at AFB and you time will be richly rewarded if you are trying to make money in AAPL.

         
  • Posted: 04 February 2011 07:15 PM #108

    Drew Bear - 04 February 2011 07:10 PM

    I understand Google gets a lot from Android. But they also lost something by breaking off the close relationship with Apple. Sure, it might be an overall gain for them in the long run, but who really knows? No one is ever told what might have been.

    I’ve made that very same argument myself. To be fair to Google, I think that they saw that they might someday become reliant upon Apple who could then slam the door on them at any time. However, what they effectively did with Android was slam that same door before Apple ever had a chance to.

    It’s like breaking up with a girl you really like because you’re afraid that she might break up with you sometime in the future. It’s kind of nutty thinking.

    So now Google is married to Android. But they’re in an “open” marriage. And it turns out that Android is kind of a slut. And although Google claims that Android will bring home the bacon someday, in the meantime Google just keeps giving her more and more money. Meanwhile, Android seems less and less attentive every day, what with her letting the carriers and the manufacturers and even whole countries like China have their way with her.

    I think I’d better stop this analogy now.

         
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    Posted: 04 February 2011 07:25 PM #109

    Some info for Drew Bear and other new members


    Here are some example of threads which recur regularly:

    1. The AAPL Intraday thread, weekly and starts Sunday nights.
    2. The AFB AAPL Price Target Index http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/80025/

    Get your estimates/projections/guesses in with this format soon.  DawnTreader & Sassy will post it up nicely.

    Date Low High Target
    May 1
    Aug 1
    Nov 1
    Feb 1

    3. AAPL in green graphics by Mercel
    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79999/

    5. AAPL P/E with and without cash http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/80051/

    6. Apple Retail Store Experiences http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/78927/

    7. iOS web share http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/80046/

    8. 9 month product outlook http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/80023/

    9.  What is the AFB ?  http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79842/

    10. Bloggers embarrass street analysts ... again
    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79968/

    11. AAPL FQ1 Results
    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79957/

    In there you will see that the AFB had well over 20 people whose published estimates were better THAN ANY of the Wall Street published estimates.

    12. The AFB AAPL FQ1 Estimate (this is the key one about EPS and Gross Revenue) 
    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79826/

    13.  This ranking is based on EPS with the tie-breaker being Gross Revenues http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewreply/539956/

    Top 12 Rankings of the AFB, imho, for the quarter.

    1. MacOrange & AHHA
    3. JohnG
    4. Tetrachloride
    5. Gregg Thurman
    6. awcabot & cdodge
    8. pats
    9. westech
    10. DawnTreader
    11 ChasMac77
    12. deagol

         
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    Posted: 04 February 2011 07:31 PM #110

    14. The AFB Member 1st Quarter Estimates
    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/79789/

    This one is the thread where we published our “official” earnings estimates.

         
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    Posted: 05 February 2011 12:38 PM #111

    pats - 04 February 2011 10:50 PM

    Welcome aboard, we are always looking for new insight.  I would say the bench is deep at AFB and you time will be richly rewarded if you are trying to make money in AAPL.

    Thanks, Pat. Yes, I’m always trying to make more money investing in AAPL.  :-D

         
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    Posted: 05 February 2011 12:40 PM #112

    FalKirk - 04 February 2011 11:15 PM

    So now Google is married to Android. But they’re in an “open” marriage. And it turns out that Android is kind of a slut.

    So how does Adobe Flash fit into this relationship?

    Don’t answer that.

    I think I’d better stop this analogy now.

         
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    Posted: 05 February 2011 12:43 PM #113

    Tetrachloride - 04 February 2011 11:25 PM

    Some info for Drew Bear and other new members…Here are some example of threads which recur regularly:

    Thanks, Tetrachloride. I’ve browsed through a few of those, but most are new to me. I’ll check them out.

         
  • Posted: 05 February 2011 01:21 PM #114

    Drew Bear - 05 February 2011 04:40 PM
    FalKirk - 04 February 2011 11:15 PM

    So now Google is married to Android. But they’re in an “open” marriage. And it turns out that Android is kind of a slut.

    So how does Adobe Flash fit into this relationship?

    Don’t answer that.

    I think I’d better stop this analogy now.

    tongue laugh

    All I’m going to say is, they don’t call Adobe “Flash” for nothing. Know what I saying?

         
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    Posted: 06 February 2011 05:31 PM #115

    Here is: More evidence Android is a thorn.

    If you follow the Google Android operating system scene, you will probably have heard about the new, web-based Android Market store which was launched a few days ago…

    In summary - if someone managed to steal your Google password they could trick your Android smartphone into installing software, without you having to grant permission on the device itself.

    The result of all this is that a Google password suddenly becomes even more valuable for potential attackers, and I would not be surprised to see even more Gmail phishing attacks as a consequence.

    In future, however, the phishers’ intention may not be to use stolen account credentials for the purposes of sending spam but to install malware on the user’s Android devices instead.

    First crapware, now malware. Apple needs to catch up on some of these features.

         
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    Posted: 07 February 2011 03:59 AM #116

    Did the Android app count decrease? I thought it was beyond 200,000, but this WSJ article implies it’s closer to 100,000. Did they cull that many? But Google doesn’t remove apps, not like Apple who block apps for absolutely no reason. Google is open!

    Google executive Eric Chu, who works on Android, last week said the company was “not happy” with the level of purchases of apps in its app market but was taking steps to increase them. There are more than 350,000 mobile apps available on Apple devices compared with more than 100,000 on Android devices.

         
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    Posted: 07 February 2011 04:04 AM #117

    FalKirk - 05 February 2011 05:21 PM
    Drew Bear - 05 February 2011 04:40 PM
    FalKirk - 04 February 2011 11:15 PM

    So now Google is married to Android. But they’re in an “open” marriage. And it turns out that Android is kind of a slut.

    So how does Adobe Flash fit into this relationship?

    Don’t answer that.

    I think I’d better stop this analogy now.

    tongue laugh

    All I’m going to say is, they don’t call Adobe “Flash” for nothing. Know what I saying?

    FalKirk, cut your losses while you can.  The Vegas meetup isn’t even here yet!  wink

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 13 February 2011 03:26 PM #118

    Developers are Schizo About New Platforms

    ...don?t ask a set of developers about whether a platform they will have to learn will succeed unless all you care about is whether they perceive it as cool.  They don?t know much else.  It?s all religion to them.  Despite the fact they are engineers, very few will look at this sort of thing objectively.

    The above article is long-winded, but the audio interview that it links to at the beginning was interesting to listen to. Scoble interviews 2 guys who develop apps for Dreamworks, but are also working on something on their own. It’s basically these guys shooting the breeze in a bar, so the conversation goes all over the place.

    What I found most interesting is that the developers kept on insisting that Android was the platform of the future because it was “open” (a religious belief). But, they also repeatedly acknowledged that iOS was simpler to develop for (no device fragmentation) and Apple’s App store was much better than Android’s market.

    Basically they had this perception (based on faith) that Android will some day be “the” primary platform to develop for, while iOS would be secondary. Right now iOS is in first place, but that can’t last because…well, just because.

         
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    Posted: 13 February 2011 03:39 PM #119

    PC World had an article dated 1/26/11 entitled “Smackdown: Android Market vs. iPhone App Store”. I don’t want to link to it because it makes you click through 15 “slides” just to bump their page view count. I hate that.

    But one of the readers posted a comment that I thought was revealing. It shows just how “real” reporters are failing to accurately portray this iOS vs Android battle.

    You missed quite a number of other important differences between the Android Marketplace and the iOS App Store:

      * Real App Count:
    There are over 300,000 apps in the iOS App Store vs 120,000 apps in the Android Marketplace. That unofficial count of 200,000 includes ringtones, wallpapers, themes etc. Apple only counts apps.

    Also, AppBrain states that over 45,000 of the 100,000 apps in the Android Marketplace are spam apps, so in reality, you are probably only talking 60,000 real apps in the Android Marketplace.

    In addition, because anyone is allowed to post any rubbish to the Android Marketplace, there are innumerable “hello world’ apps and buggy, poorly coded efforts clogging the Android Marketplace.

      * Games:
    Android is still barren of Big name game titles released by all of the largest mobile game publishers:
    - Gameloft ? 136 games for iOS vs 12 games for Android
    - Capcom Mobile ? 27 games for iOS vs 4 games for Android
    - EA ? 74 games for iOS vs 0 for Android
    - Ngmoco ? 42 games for iOS vs 0 for Android
    - Pangea ? 24 games for iOS vs 0 for Android
    - Popcap ? 5 for iOS vs 0 for Android
    - ID’s new game Rage is only being produced for iOS

    And total number of games:
    iOS = 38,000 vs Android = 13,000

      * Malware:
    Android and the Android Marketplace has suffered multiple malware outbreaks such as:
    - More than 50 Android mobile banking apps in the Android Marketplace each targeted at a specific financial institution whose true purpose was phishing and identity theft.
    - A wallpaper app that was downloaded 4 million times which maliciously forwarded user details to a location in China before being discovered.
    - Mobile Spy and Mobile Stealth in the Android Marketplace
    - SMS Message Spy Pro and SMS Message Spy Lite spyware apps also in the Marketplace
    - the Geinimi botnet app that is infecting numerous Android apps on Chinese app stores and spreading around the world.
    - Trojan-SMS.AndroidOS.FakePlayer.a, the Russian ?Movie player? app that surreptitiously sent premium SMS texts from unsuspecting users

    In contrast, despite hosting over a third of a million apps and 7 billion downloads, there have been Zero pieces of malware come through the iOS App Store. A 100% safety record. Not bad, and good reassurance for a public tired of virus-riddled PCs.

      * Free App Numbers
    - Number of Free apps: 70,000 in iOS App Store vs 50,000 in Android Marketplace. So despite a higher proportion of free apps in the Android Marketplace, it is still a lower total number than the iOS App Store.

      * Desktop App Store client software
    In addition to App Store apps on the smartphones themselves and web-based landing pages for each app in each app store, iOS has iTunes, which though some PC users dislike it, still boasts the advantages of desktop-class user interface and real estate, global updating, high-speed USB syncing, one-stop syncing of everything including media at high speed to your phone. This functionality is completely missing in action with Android.