Potential Steve Jobs Impact

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    Posted: 02 February 2011 12:13 PM #16

    Oh come on Tommo, you can do better than that. Tell us how you really feel. LOL  I felt the same way, but I am trying my best to be more passive and not let posters like that get me bent out of shape.

    Tommo, you poked your head in here, now let the forum know if you can make it to Vegas. My concern would be the room availability if you decided to come. Many here would like to meet Tommo.

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    Posted: 02 February 2011 12:44 PM #17

    Tommo_UK - 02 February 2011 03:57 PM

    Jobs factor factored in. Short-term reaction on any further bad news, followed by what IMO will be a rally due to “certainty” regained over succession plans and future management structure.

    Be prepared for a hit, but Apple is no longer JUST Steve Jobs. Jonny Ive and a bunch of other guys have been tutored by Steve and mentored by him. Apple is going to lead the pack for more than the next decade at least.

    I find the first post of this topic distasteful and a simple regurgitation of a load of bile I have read all over the web for countless years, so congrats on making me feel ill agin and thank you for your contribution and invaluable insight, whoever you are.

    The problem is is that the short-term reaction will be huge IMO. When even AFBers say they’ll sell everything if Steve leaves then we’re screwed because at least they “get it”. The Street will pounce, smelling blood in the water regardless and see it as a money-making opportunity. Gloom and doom articles about Apple’s demise will ratchet up like nobody’s business. Uncertainty will go up not the other way around since those left behind will have to “prove” that they can keep things rolling without SJ. Unfortunately they don’t have time on their side since that 800lb. Market Cap thing will come into play and possibly make reduced growth rates a near certainty. At the very least, even if it recovers, the option holders will take a beating that will be hard to recover from.

    Still see it as a great buying opportunity for those that can weather the storm or aren’t all in when it happens.

    This isn’t anymore distasteful than writing a will or helping your parents plan their estate.
    My 2 cents.

         
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    Posted: 02 February 2011 12:54 PM #18

    Is there any stocks that you think will rally on this news if/when it happens?

         
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    Posted: 02 February 2011 02:03 PM #19

    ChasMac77 - 02 February 2011 04:54 PM

    Is there any stocks that you think will rally on this news if/when it happens?

    GOOG and QCOM.

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    Posted: 02 February 2011 02:17 PM #20

    Chas, the difference is that with family it is done privately. This is a discussion about someone else’s family member and how to profit from it. Yes, it is extremely distasteful. I might not be as annoyed by this topic if it was not this person’s first post. More than likely an existing AFB’er using a different name, but still annoying.

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    Posted: 02 February 2011 02:46 PM #21

    I don’t think the topic is off limits. I don’t even think it’s necessarily an existing member (if it was, I don’t understand the point in hiding… We’re already hiding behind avatars. I don’t like conspiracy theories unless given evidence). It was also well-written, for the most part. I do think it’s distasteful in directly referencing Steve’s possible passing away, and would prefer “if Steve left permanently” or something along those lines, to make the discussion less about emotion and more about opinions on this.

    Personal opinion of worst-case scenario: Moderate to large hit followed by near-immediate melt-up. Concur 100% with iOSWeekly on reasoning (primarily existing products in the pipeline and competitive strategy). Wouldn’t sell. Would buy if had cash.

    Who would be affected most: the very short-term holders (near-term options, margin, etc) and very long-term holders (those looking 10 years ahead and think SJ is absolutely critical). By the way, who here is of the “sell everything if SJ leaves” persuasion? Maybe we need a poll. I am certainly not.

    Last but not least, wishing Steve to live to a 100. :apple:

    Edit: typo

    [ Edited: 02 February 2011 02:51 PM by Roman ]      
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    Posted: 02 February 2011 03:31 PM #22

    Roman - 02 February 2011 06:46 PM

    I don’t think the topic is off limits. I don’t even think it’s necessarily an existing member (if it was, I don’t understand the point in hiding… We’re already hiding behind avatars. I don’t like conspiracy theories unless given evidence). It was also well-written, for the most part. I do think it’s distasteful in directly referencing Steve’s possible passing away, and would prefer “if Steve left permanently” or something along those lines, to make the discussion less about emotion and more about opinions on this.

    Personal opinion of worst-case scenario: Moderate to large hit followed by near-immediate melt-up. Concur 100% with iOSWeekly on reasoning (primarily existing products in the pipeline and competitive strategy). Wouldn’t sell. Would buy if had cash.

    Who would be affected most: the very short-term holders (near-term options, margin, etc) and very long-term holders (those looking 10 years ahead and think SJ is absolutely critical). By the way, who here is of the “sell everything if SJ leaves” persuasion? Maybe we need a poll. I am certainly not.

    Last but not least, wishing Steve to live to a 100. :apple:

    Edit: typo

    What do you see the range for the “moderate to large hit” and do you have any general suggestions for “protection” for a long share position.

    cheers to all and especially SJ
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 02 February 2011 04:07 PM #23

    johnG - 02 February 2011 07:31 PM

    What do you see the range for the “moderate to large hit” and do you have any general suggestions for “protection” for a long share position.

    cheers to all and especially SJ
        JohnG

    Honestly no idea, this is just speculation - but just think how much of a hit can trailing P/E take before the market factors in that, yes, products are still in the pipeline, they still make money, and there’s a deep bench of capable executives. I’d say 10%-30% hit to stock but almost immediate melt-up over several months.

    Protection? I have none. I rarely have much in near-term options and I don’t use margin so those aren’t an issue. Mid-term (several months to a year) would be a hit, but I have a higher risk appetite than average. Longer-term (2-3 years) would be irrelevant from my POV (again, dependent on the meltup thesis due to reasons explained by iOSWeekly). Even longer term (5-10 years) would be relevant but I’d have ample time to watch TC, JI and others running the company to make a judgment call.

         
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    Posted: 02 February 2011 04:11 PM #24

    Oh, one more thing.

    Once I accept the worst as a possibility, it lets me worry about my skin less than to feel empathy (and hope!) for Steve. If something terrible were to happen to him, I know I’d have him and his family in mind first, Apple and the technology industry second, and my money 3rd.

    This takes some work on oneself that I encourage anyone with significant Apple investments undergo.

         
  • Posted: 02 February 2011 05:20 PM #25

    All of my AAPL gains from 2010 are in the start of my retirement dividend yielding stock portfolio or cash.  I am so grateful to Apple and to Steve for making such a profound and positive impact on our lives.

    If it were announced this year that Steve would not be returning to Apple I would sell those other stocks and use the proceeds and the cash to buy 2013 LEAPs on the initial dip

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2011 03:22 AM #26

    Hi All,

    I did not realize my initial post would garner so much criticism. My apologies for offending anyone. In hindsight, I do think I should have worded it differently.

    The bottom line is that we’re talking about someone’s life here, someone very important. I think that that is of more importance than a stock.

    However, with that said, my only intention of starting this thread was to get a discussion going of what people thought would happen to the stock in the very sad event that Steve would permanently leave his post as CEO.

    I would also like to point out that I am not trying to figure out how to profit from this situation. I am long on AAPL shares and simply trying to figure out if I should sell some of my position permanently.

    One last thing I would like to address is the belief that Apple will be fine due to it’s Executive team and long bench of capable leaders.. I know this to be true but we aren’t discussing what is or is not true, we are discussing what the public consensus will be.

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2011 07:10 AM #27

    Firstly, SJ’s health is clearly an important issue, and Apple will have been engineered as an organisation to run without SJ. His influence has already been amplified to sustain Apple after his departure.

    Secondly, the board has a legal responsibility to take the best medical advice on health matters, and if that warrants any new conclusion about SJ’s tenure and ability, the board have to tell the shareholders. You cannot usefully know SJ’s medical information; it’s been evaluated for you by the best medical advice, better than you can do it yourself. That’s the law. His ability to act as CEO for another year or two is not yet in question. If you mistrust the integrity of the board, you shouldn’t be investing!

    Thirdly, the current leave of absence is worded very openly. It doesn’t in fact imply a relapse, only a sensible personal approach to a serious condition.

    Fourthly, SJ has built, if you like, an organism: Apple. It is now ready to operate on its own in the world. Is SJ going to change it if he stays on? I don’t think he could even if he wanted to. It’s done.

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2011 07:56 PM #28

    sleepygeek - 03 February 2011 11:10 AM

    Firstly, SJ’s health is clearly an important issue, and Apple will have been engineered as an organisation to run without SJ. His influence has already been amplified to sustain Apple after his departure.

    Secondly, the board has a legal responsibility to take the best medical advice on health matters, and if that warrants any new conclusion about SJ’s tenure and ability, the board have to tell the shareholders. You cannot usefully know SJ’s medical information; it’s been evaluated for you by the best medical advice, better than you can do it yourself. That’s the law. His ability to act as CEO for another year or two is not yet in question. If you mistrust the integrity of the board, you shouldn’t be investing!

    Thirdly, the current leave of absence is worded very openly. It doesn’t in fact imply a relapse, only a sensible personal approach to a serious condition.

    Fourthly, SJ has built, if you like, an organism: Apple. It is now ready to operate on its own in the world. Is SJ going to change it if he stays on? I don’t think he could even if he wanted to. It’s done.

    Splendid, 26 posts late, but splendid none the less.

         
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    Posted: 10 February 2011 02:02 AM #29

    My first thought is that AAPL will always be “haunted” by eternal clouds about SJ’s health until he leaves the company for whatever reason, and I don’t see much reversal upon a SJ return unless he puts on about 25 pounds and wears “muscle turtlenecks” or something.  But the health issue isn’t the primary reason for AAPL always seeming to trade undervalued relative to other tech stocks.

    EDIT:  Nice to hear that SJ is in good spirits, if the source is to be believed.

    Y’know, AAPL seems to be back on track now using the ol’ sentiment-o-meter (P/E of just about 20).  Where we are a little while before April earnings will offer a slight glimpse as to whether AAPL has been actually been “devalued” by SJ’s leave of absence.

    [ Edited: 10 February 2011 02:12 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 10 February 2011 09:33 AM #30

    Mav - 10 February 2011 06:02 AM

    My first thought is that AAPL will always be “haunted” by eternal clouds about SJ’s health until he leaves the company for whatever reason, and I don’t see much reversal upon a SJ return unless he puts on about 25 pounds and wears “muscle turtlenecks” or something.  But the health issue isn’t the primary reason for AAPL always seeming to trade undervalued relative to other tech stocks.

    EDIT:  Nice to hear that SJ is in good spirits, if the source is to be believed.

    Y’know, AAPL seems to be back on track now using the ol’ sentiment-o-meter (P/E of just about 20).  Where we are a little while before April earnings will offer a slight glimpse as to whether AAPL has been actually been “devalued” by SJ’s leave of absence.

    Mav, what’s your high P/E number? 23ish? If so, that gets you to $400+, no?