AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 14 February 2011 02:55 PM #31

    The main AAPL signals we are waiting for:

    VZ iPhone sales announcement
    iPad 2 announcement:  prices, models, shipping date
    MacBook Pro refresh—with SSD option
    and
    any target price upgrades by WS & The Analysts (rumored to be either a punk rock or a polka group or the scrabble players of Westchester County).

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 03:06 PM #32

    The 13F for Steven Cohen?s SAC Capital shows raised stakes for AAPL from 332,122 shares to 876,458 shares.

    AAPL at $359.03 up 0.60%. Volume at 7.46 million shares traded. Holding nicely to today?s gains.

    Market spinning wheels and going nowhere. Still on bullish sideways mode.

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 04:18 PM #33

    Another number to watch: SPX 1333 level. Now SPX at 1331.60 up 0.18%


    Just hit the wires at Reuters. Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equities strategist for JPMorgan Securities, the S&P 500 is ripe for a 6% near-term pullback as stock market benchmark has nearly doubled from March 2009 lows.


    Even though, it has been a while that analysts and pundits are calling for a top on the market and a (deep) pullback, would take seriously the advice and watch trading positions. Useful to remind to keep tight stops and hedge trades.

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 07:50 PM #34

    I’m trying to set up for later; would prefer to acquire some Oct 11 AAPL calls at a somewhat better price, and then trade with shorter-term stuff (Apr/May).

    Unless this week sees us go way up, I will make a trade of some kind; AAPL isn’t gonna be held down at 360 as of April, IMHO.

    I think I’ve got a half-decent “AAPL model” for this quarter, and we’ll see if I’m right.

    As for financials, I’d only place fairly small speculation bets if anything.  FNMA.OB down 21% in a day.  Talk about a roller coaster.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 14 February 2011 08:36 PM #35

    BrazilNuts - 14 February 2011 08:18 PM

    Another number to watch: SPX 1333 level. Now SPX at 1331.60 up 0.18%


    Just hit the wires at Reuters. Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equities strategist for JPMorgan Securities, the S&P 500 is ripe for a 6% near-term pullback as stock market benchmark has nearly doubled from March 2009 lows.


    Even though, it has been a while that analysts and pundits are calling for a top on the market and a (deep) pullback, would take seriously the advice and watch trading positions. Useful to remind to keep tight stops and hedge trades.

    BTW Nuts, I think your news summaries are at least as good as the various “pro” ones (Reuters, AP, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc.). Concise, hits the high points, always a good read in the Intraday thread, thanks.

    When you first started them regularly, I wondered if you were automatically generating them because they were so consistent, reliable and good. Unfortunately not, so you can never go on vacation.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 09:12 PM #36

    zulu - 14 February 2011 04:27 PM

    If Willrob posted pivots today does anyone have them?  thnx


    If someone has the time and inclination, could you kindly explain what Willrob’s numbers mean?  I see this every trading day, and I don’t have a clue to their meaning.

    Much appreciated.

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 09:23 PM #37

    The farther away from the main value, the more dramatic the change.  So, an S1 is a lot easier to get to than S3.

    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/041404.asp

    I like to use them as a standard deviation, tho they are obviously not.  1 standard deviation is a piece of cake to get.  2 standard deviations is fairly common.  3 ?  now we’re getting more unusual.

    What happened today ?  The midpoint was 355.  We hit R1.5.  So, it was a good gain. 

    On some days, the spread between levels is quite a bit.  Today was about average (I could be wrong).

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 09:25 PM #38

    Some people use these as buy and sell triggers. 

    If I was a swing trader, I might sell if AAPL got to R2.    A day trader might sell if AAPL got to R1.  Buy and hold traders enjoy looking at the numbers while thinking about milking the cows.

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 09:30 PM #39

    Tetrachloride - 15 February 2011 01:25 AM

    Some people use these as buy and sell triggers. 

    If I was a swing trader, I might sell if AAPL got to R2.    A day trader might sell if AAPL got to R1.  Buy and hold traders enjoy looking at the numbers while thinking about milking the cows.


    Thanks, C4 (as you may know, that’s chemistry talk for Tetrachloride, with the “4” as a subscript).

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 09:34 PM #40

    once upon a time, when OS X was new, the “Carbon” layer of OS X was the most important.  So, I thought it was a good word play.  But nobody reacted.  I won’t make it as a comedian.

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 09:58 PM #41

    GIFanatics.com

    Never happen. 

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 09:58 PM #42

    Tetrachloride - 15 February 2011 01:34 AM

    I won’t make it as a comedian.

    Most likely not . . .

    . . . but I did enjoy

    “Buy and hold traders enjoy looking at the numbers while thinking about milking the cows.”

    . . . I thank Willrob for providing the milking machine.

    smile

    Signature

    Bought and Held

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2011 10:36 PM #43

    Mav - 14 February 2011 11:50 PM

    I’m trying to set up for later; would prefer to acquire some Oct 11 AAPL calls at a somewhat better price, and then trade with shorter-term stuff (Apr/May).

    Unless this week sees us go way up, I will make a trade of some kind; AAPL isn’t gonna be held down at 360 as of April, IMHO.

    I think I’ve got a half-decent “AAPL model” for this quarter, and we’ll see if I’m right.

    As for financials, I’d only place fairly small speculation bets if anything.  FNMA.OB down 21% in a day.  Talk about a roller coaster.

    Mav, if the “high” P/E for AAPL happens on the run up to earnings then we could see $390ish IMO. If we get $6.00 eps and the P/E drops down to 19 post earnings, then that still leaves AAPL at $390. (maybe we don’t get the normal drop and in a few weeks get back to a 20 P/E which gets us to $410 - right on target) So, that being said, $30 from here is about 8.5%. We have 2 long months to cover that ground, not leaving much room for straight up. To me, that almost guarantees a pull back or sideways movement. I’ve got a nice base here and don’t want to get greedy for that last 5% or so. Maybe we’ll get P/E expansion and I’ll have missed the some of the boat. I’m still very long but with a lot less risk than a few weeks ago.

         
  • Posted: 14 February 2011 10:45 PM #44

    ChasMac77 - 15 February 2011 02:36 AM
    Mav - 14 February 2011 11:50 PM

    I’m trying to set up for later; would prefer to acquire some Oct 11 AAPL calls at a somewhat better price, and then trade with shorter-term stuff (Apr/May).

    Unless this week sees us go way up, I will make a trade of some kind; AAPL isn’t gonna be held down at 360 as of April, IMHO.

    I think I’ve got a half-decent “AAPL model” for this quarter, and we’ll see if I’m right.

    As for financials, I’d only place fairly small speculation bets if anything.  FNMA.OB down 21% in a day.  Talk about a roller coaster.

    Mav, if the “high” P/E for AAPL happens on the run up to earnings then we could see $390ish IMO. If we get $6.00 eps and the P/E drops down to 19 post earnings, then that still leaves AAPL at $390. (maybe we don’t get the normal drop and in a few weeks get back to a 20 P/E which gets us to $410 - right on target) So, that being said, $30 from here is about 8.5%. We have 2 long months to cover that ground, not leaving much room for straight up. To me, that almost guarantees a pull back or sideways movement. I’ve got a nice base here and don’t want to get greedy for that last 5% or so. Maybe we’ll get P/E expansion and I’ll have missed the some of the boat. I’m still very long but with a lot less risk than a few weeks ago.

    I’m torn.  I would like to think pull back and I have money for such but, with all of the potential news coming I really expect sideways…..  Right now nobody seems to want to sell.. Me included.

         
  • Posted: 14 February 2011 10:45 PM #45

    ChasMac77 - 15 February 2011 02:36 AM
    Mav - 14 February 2011 11:50 PM

    I’m trying to set up for later; would prefer to acquire some Oct 11 AAPL calls at a somewhat better price, and then trade with shorter-term stuff (Apr/May).

    Unless this week sees us go way up, I will make a trade of some kind; AAPL isn’t gonna be held down at 360 as of April, IMHO.

    I think I’ve got a half-decent “AAPL model” for this quarter, and we’ll see if I’m right.

    As for financials, I’d only place fairly small speculation bets if anything.  FNMA.OB down 21% in a day.  Talk about a roller coaster.

    Mav, if the “high” P/E for AAPL happens on the run up to earnings then we could see $390ish IMO. If we get $6.00 eps and the P/E drops down to 19 post earnings, then that still leaves AAPL at $390. (maybe we don’t get the normal drop and in a few weeks get back to a 20 P/E which gets us to $410 - right on target) So, that being said, $30 from here is about 8.5%. We have 2 long months to cover that ground, not leaving much room for straight up. To me, that almost guarantees a pull back or sideways movement. I’ve got a nice base here and don’t want to get greedy for that last 5% or so. Maybe we’ll get P/E expansion and I’ll have missed the some of the boat. I’m still very long but with a lot less risk than a few weeks ago.

    dleted:  double post…. sorry

    [ Edited: 15 February 2011 09:28 AM by Jcaron ]