AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:19 PM #406

    adamthompson3232 - 18 February 2011 08:56 PM

    Here’s a short who will feel pretty dumb in a few weeks, really dumb in a few months, and like the dumbest guy on earth in a few years.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cnbc-22844419/shorting-apple-24237838

    I wonder if he can make it to July before covering.  That would give us a timely little boost!

    Edit:  so,then!  The day SJ announces the end of his medical leave this fellow will be forced to cover.  He represents the Street, which is convinced SJ is gone for good

    [ Edited: 18 February 2011 05:22 PM by zulu ]      
  • Posted: 18 February 2011 05:21 PM #407

    Red shirted ensign - 18 February 2011 09:18 PM

    Or they were just setting up the small guy sitting on his 350 or 355 calls, or had bought 350 puts, that it was o.k. to head out early today….“move on, move on, nothing to see here”.  Then, blammo

    Man, I am too cynical. Gotta learn to trust…

    You mean there is manipulation going on? I’m shocked, shocked I say!  :wink:

    Good weekend to all! Don’t jones too much with the markets closed on Monday.

         
  • Posted: 18 February 2011 05:27 PM #408

    Ha! That’s what I like to see…
    Come home. and Google/Finance ticker lists AAPL as posting a low of $35.10 today. Ha!

    Oh well, in any case; I made out so well with my Feb $330s that I closed out of on Wed. Went and reloaded some March OTM yesterday and today. Hope that works out, but man… It got ugly today. (yikes)

         
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:30 PM #409

    Mace - 18 February 2011 08:54 PM

    In order for AAPL to resume the rally, it has to close a few pennies below $350 or a few tens of cents above $350.  A few pennies above $350 is bearish.  Trust me :wink:.

    are you actually basing whether the stock either resumes the rally or becomes bearish based on a few pennies/tens of cents either above or below $350?

    Your joking right?

         
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:31 PM #410

    If they can not keep AAPL down for another day, then there won"t be much margin selling.  Otherwise margin selling will cause a little (buyable) dip Tuesday.

    CNBC has been so wrong for so long on AAPL.  The Bearish guest today is more likely planning to buy all he can on Tuesday, thus his comments today would seem well timed.  Even shorts like to put on positions at the high, not right after a big pullback.

    [ Edited: 18 February 2011 05:36 PM by zulu ]      
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:36 PM #411

    snoozzzer - 18 February 2011 09:21 PM
    Red shirted ensign - 18 February 2011 09:18 PM

    Or they were just setting up the small guy sitting on his 350 or 355 calls, or had bought 350 puts, that it was o.k. to head out early today….“move on, move on, nothing to see here”.  Then, blammo

    Man, I am too cynical. Gotta learn to trust…

    You mean there is manipulation going on? I’m shocked, shocked I say!  :wink:

    Good weekend to all! Don’t jones too much with the markets closed on Monday.

    Thank You, Louis….

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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:38 PM #412

    joel90069 - 18 February 2011 09:05 PM
    Mace - 18 February 2011 08:54 PM
    bick - 18 February 2011 08:51 PM

    Any bets on an exact close of 350.00?

    Would allow many many call/put options to die worthless death.

    In order for AAPL to resume the rally, it has to close a few pennies below $350 or a few tens of cents above $350.  A few pennies above $350 is bearish.  Trust me :wink:.

    Does $350.56 count?

    This means AAPL would resume rally to $370 over the next 1-2 weeks grin.  Might continue a little lower in the first hour of trading though.  What I said is based on years of observing price behavior whenever AAPL is pinned near a strike price.  Didn’t keep any record, just from memory, as you know I’m old so my memory may fail me :oops:.  Technically, it is doing a bullish descending wedge for the whole day.

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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:40 PM #413

    zulu - 18 February 2011 09:31 PM

    If they can not keep AAPL down for another day, then there won"t be much margin selling.  Otherwise margin selling will cause a little (buyable) dip Tuesday.

    CNBC has been so wrong for so long on AAPL.  The Bearish guest today is more likely planning to buy all he can on Tuesday, thus his comments today would seem well timed.  Even shorts like to put on positions at the high, not right after a big pullback.


    Do you really think there are that many mom and pop investors on margin that any squeeze they see will drop the price significantly?

         
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:46 PM #414

    blaze biscuits - 18 February 2011 09:30 PM
    Mace - 18 February 2011 08:54 PM

    In order for AAPL to resume the rally, it has to close a few pennies below $350 or a few tens of cents above $350.  A few pennies above $350 is bearish.  Trust me :wink:.

    are you actually basing whether the stock either resumes the rally or becomes bearish based on a few pennies/tens of cents either above or below $350?

    Your joking right?

    No, please refer to my post to joel.  You may want to verify this type of behavior through some record keeping.  My PhD explanation is:
    -  A few pennies below $350 because Mr Market is forcing it down so that most calls would expire worthless.
    - A few pennies above $350 because Mr Market is forcing it up so that most puts would expire worthless.
    - A few tens of cents above $350 means Mr Market had done his maximize profit/minimize loss magic or feel is too expensive to hold down the price below $350 so let it appreciates a little.

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    Posted: 18 February 2011 05:59 PM #415

    Mace - 18 February 2011 09:46 PM
    blaze biscuits - 18 February 2011 09:30 PM
    Mace - 18 February 2011 08:54 PM

    In order for AAPL to resume the rally, it has to close a few pennies below $350 or a few tens of cents above $350.  A few pennies above $350 is bearish.  Trust me :wink:.

    are you actually basing whether the stock either resumes the rally or becomes bearish based on a few pennies/tens of cents either above or below $350?

    Your joking right?

    No, please refer to my post to joel.  You may want to verify this type of behavior through some record keeping.  My PhD explanation is:
    -  A few pennies below $350 because Mr Market is forcing it down so that most calls would expire worthless.
    - A few pennies above $350 because Mr Market is forcing it up so that most puts would expire worthless.
    - A few tens of cents above $350 means Mr Market had done his maximize profit/minimize loss magic or feel is too expensive to hold down the price below $350 so let it appreciates a little.

    The above is exactly what concerns me when doing spreads that require you to hold until OE day to assure max profit, I do know that many of my 5.00 weekly spreads were 4.80 only 5 minutes before close, making it necessary to allow them to expire for max profit (have tested only weekly based ones so far).

    Hopefully I am missing something here, how do you liquidate your spreads normally to avoid the OE (week or day of) manipulation?

         
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 06:17 PM #416

    Pianoforte? - 18 February 2011 09:59 PM

    ... how do you liquidate your spreads normally to avoid the OE (week or day of) manipulation?

    My SOP reply is to sell when 90% max potential gain is achieved.

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    Posted: 18 February 2011 06:23 PM #417

    It got weird out there today, but that’s why I try not to bet short term too often for too much $$. 

    Notice I didn’t say never.  That’s why I put myself in the corner today. 

    Enjoy the holiday, people.  We’ve got a long ways to go and lots of potential catalysts ahead before April rolls around.  I’m not the least bit worried about the 60-day outlook.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 07:25 PM #418

    AAPL did find support at a key level, its 20-day moving average. It was painful watching it going through one strike to a lower strike on pinning action to round numbers. The action was magnified with the long weekend ahead; many did not care to carry a risky bet home.

    Volatility was higher than expected, however major indexes found support through bad times and edged higher, the DJI outperforming and gaining 73 points, up 0.59%. This made even more troubling watching AAPL?s tape.

    Other highly powered stocks AMZN, CMG, NFLX made company to the downside. They tend to go up on afterburners and then stall and get jettisoned in a miserable fashion, sometimes a tell on broader market weakness. But look, the trend is undoubtedly higher.

    A week ago, the mini-crash, took us to $348 from highs of $360, remember? Today we got down more than $8, -2.4% to a close of $350. Intraday lows $349.50 and high $359.5; heartbreaking. Volume on the downside was heavy with around 28 million shares traded.

    AAPL can be sold off hard on rumors or news that are still non-news. How many celebrities did the tabloid kill? From Oprah to Michael Douglas it became a serial killer. And still was a catalyst for whatever non-news that followed, from the non-nano to the non-investigation of the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission into Apple?s new subscription service.

    Bruised but not defeated. The long weekend will bring clearer heads and less dominant futures. And saving the best for last: lots of shorts to squeeze. The thought does bring up a nice smile.

         
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 08:00 PM #419

    The antitrust deal (prelude to a prelude to a preliminary investigation) is a joke and the smart money knows it. 

    The biggest laugher of them all, this is a policy that hasn’t even been implemented yet.  I can’t say that enough.  It takes effect on June 30.  So all Apple has to do is say, “OK, how about 20%?  15% even?”  Poof, problem solved.

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    Posted: 19 February 2011 12:10 AM #420

    Pianoforte? - 18 February 2011 09:59 PM


    The above is exactly what concerns me when doing spreads that require you to hold until OE day to assure max profit, I do know that many of my 5.00 weekly spreads were 4.80 only 5 minutes before close, making it necessary to allow them to expire for max profit (have tested only weekly based ones so far).

    Hopefully I am missing something here, how do you liquidate your spreads normally to avoid the OE (week or day of) manipulation?

    you probably could of gotten more for those if you set a limit order higher than the bid.  I personally hardly ever pay the market price for entering or exiting a position, and certainly not for entering one.  Although sometimes you don’t have a choice when you deal with fat liquidity like fords where the spread is sometimes 1 penny.

    That is an issue with spreads though..  although..  if you look at your percentage return that you did make, say even as it was yesterday, then I’m sure that return is good.  You should probably start calculating for that.  I understand if your frustrated and maybe even a little ‘surpised’.

    You still probably made a fat little bundle though..