What are the big issues for AAPL for next few years?

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    Posted: 15 February 2011 12:37 AM #16

    Tetrachloride - 15 February 2011 01:38 AM

    First, the average quality is lower….That said, it may be easier for an Android user to get a top top quality app (may not be famous, but it would be the best).

    My impression is that the only Android apps that I’ve been envious of as an iOS user are the native Google apps & features: voice command, Maps & Voice. I think in pretty much all other instances the iOS apps in any given category are of higher quality than any of the Android equivalents. The iOS “best” would be better than the Android “best”. JMO.

         
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    Posted: 15 February 2011 01:06 AM #17

    Mace - 15 February 2011 01:26 AM

    Geeks and price sensitive folks are rooting for Android devices.  The key issue is that the apps developers are geeks.  Geeks prefer unconstrained environment.  Currently, Apple leads in number of apps but that might change in future.  So, Apple has to be sensitive to this preference and not piss off too many developers.

    Many developers worship at the altar of “openess”, but few are fanatical enough to walk away from the money “closed” iOS offers.

    Last June at WWDC, Jobs announced that 5 billion apps had been downloaded and that Apple had paid out $1 billion to developers since the App Store opened July 2008. Any guesses as to what will be announced at WWDC 2011? They’ve already passed the 10 billion app mark. With iPad apps commanding higher prices, it’ll be interesting to see what the dollar amount paid to developers will be. $3 billion?

    Of course Google will announce something similarly spectacular at Google I/O this May, right? Right.

         
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    Posted: 15 February 2011 02:18 AM #18

    rattyuk - 14 February 2011 02:04 AM
    chp5592 - 14 February 2011 12:06 AM

    The Windows/Apple analogy of the late 80/90’s seem to be similar to the Android/Apple scenario now.  Android is gaining incredible momentum in the phone and tablet market.  I think within two years, it will only be Android versus iOS.

    I’ll bite. Microsoft didn’t beat the Mac they beat the Apple II. The Mac had no market share. People always forget this fact when trying to say how much Google has beaten Apple.

    The result was that Microsoft beat Apple for share. But it wasn’t really Microsoft’s doing. Apple did that just fine by themselves.

    The Apple II certainly had market share, but Apple consumed the Apple II revenue to drive Mac. It was right to move to Mac, but Apple went about it poorly. If Steve Jobs had had control, it might have been different.

    Microsoft’s advantage was an Apple in disarray. Now the tables have turned. Apple seems to do no wrong, and Microsoft seems like an oaf.

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    Posted: 15 February 2011 02:25 AM #19

    Drew Bear - I wonder exactly when Android Market can claim it’s paid developers $1 billion…what’s sad is that Android Market has also been somewhat responsible for taking money from its consumers!

    A2+ - No need to sugarcoat.  Apple almost never does wrong, and Microsoft is downright oafish (being a company with fabulous wealth but no new successes)!

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    Posted: 15 February 2011 04:04 AM #20

    Mav - 15 February 2011 06:25 AM

    Drew Bear - I wonder exactly when Android Market can claim it’s paid developers $1 billion…

    Not for many years. Paid apps are a minority percentage of apps downloaded. Developers for the Android market make money from ads and I’m not sure Google has the data for that since there are multiple marketplaces and many different mobile ad firms.

    Google’s Admob is the largest of the mobile ad firms, so maybe they’ll announce some dollar amount paid to developers from that single source. But not unless it’s an impressive number, which it probably won’t be for some time.

    I’m wondering when the analysts, pundits and developers will finally expose the meme that Android is catching up to iOS in number of apps. I think the numerical gap is becoming larger: 350,000 iOS apps vs 120,000 (counting very liberally) Android apps. There was never any claim that Android developers were coming anywhere close to getting paid as much as iOS developers.

    The truth is that despite all the “Android is beating iPhone” headlines, iOS is in most respects far ahead of Android. When that truth eventually becomes widely accepted, AAPL share prices should rise considerably. That’s when those “crazy” $1000 stock price predictions will look reasonable.

         
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    Posted: 15 February 2011 03:08 PM #21

    Here’s another headline that implies that Android has overtaken iOS. The writer of the article fails to point out the one very obvious fact that would explain the data and what it really implies. Reader’s comments spell it out for her.

    Millennial: For The Second Month, Android Leads iOS For Mobile Ad Impression Share

    Android is a Google product. A free Google product. And just like all other free Google products like G-Mail,YouTube and Google Maps it’s all being paid for by ad impressions at the end of the day.

    I think it’s a different mindset. More apps on iOS go for the $0.99 model, and more apps on Android go for free with ads.

    Shouldn’t the headline read “Android users view more ads”?

    So…... Android users get to see and click more ads? LOL

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2011 11:06 PM #22

    Drew Bear - 14 February 2011 07:20 PM

    Apple is leading a tectonic shift in how people spend their time and money on personal computing. We’ve talked about this in other threads here, but mobile computing is going to be bigger than the entire personal computer industry of the past 30 yrs. This is not a short-term deal. The iPhone & iPad are set to drive AAPL’s revenue & earnings for at least the next decade.

    The recent Mary Meeker presentation on the shift towards SoLoMo (Social Local Mobile) was posted on another thread. Here’s a presentation by Morgan Stanley, her previous employer. (She’s now with Kleiner Perkins) There are more than a few similarities in the presentations. I’ve included several of the slides. Click on the link below if you want to view the entire series.

    Everything You Need To Know About The Exploding Tablet Market

    The tablet market is exploding, but it’s sometimes easy to miss just how fast it’s growing. Morgan Stanley Research has a good report on the state of the tablet market and, more importantly, where it’s going. Summary in four words? Tablets will be HUUUUUGE.

    Most people hadn’t expected tablets to be so big in the enterprise. (“It’s a toy”, etc.)

    People are shifting some of the time they spend consuming content on their PC to their tablet, but still use mostly their PC to create content. (This is consistent with our personal experience.)

    People are using PCs less and less…

    Tablets are ALREADY eating into PC sales.

    And tablets are DESTROYING netbooks.

    We’re going from a computing world dominated by one device (the PC) to one with many devices (smartphones, tablets, laptops, desktops). Side note: this is bullish for the cloud, which is needed to tie it all together.

    But over A HUNDRED million is possible in 2012 as well.

    This is our favorite chart: tablets are part of a bigger narrative, which is the mobile internet, and will be HHHHHUGE.

         
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    Posted: 18 February 2011 01:11 PM #23

    Here’s an opposing viewpoint.

    Tablet Explosion Looking More Subdued

    A Gartner survey highlighted the continued success of smartphones as the top selling device again this year, but tablets sat way down at the bottom of the list.

    “Smartphones were followed by laptop computers and desktop computers in rankings of U.S. consumers’ average intent to purchase in 2011. Mobile phones ranked fourth in average intent to purchase, followed by e-book readers in the fifth position, and tablet computers ranking sixth,” according to Gartner, which released the survey Thursday.

    And here’s Moritz’s expert opinion. Sounds like he agrees with Gates & Ballmer.

    Conventional thinking held that tablets were a disruptive force in the computer industry, as the lightweight touchscreen-controlled devices threaten to displace notebooks. But while many find tablets to be wonderful media players, the devices lack more practical features like keyboards and more powerful processors to handle work tasks.