The AFB AAPL Price Target Index - February 2011 Edition

  • Posted: 16 February 2011 01:43 AM

    The AFB AAPL Price Target Index - February 2011 Edition has now been posted at Eventide.

    In all, 24 AFB members submitted numbers for the index. That’s an extraordinary level of participation and the outcome may be a bit surprising.

    [ Edited: 16 February 2011 11:06 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 02:44 AM #1

    Thank you to Sassy for her work in compiling the AFB member submissions.

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 03:11 AM #2

    I believe the average 12-month target price of $541 is well above the current Street expectation and represents an anticipated 57% rise in the share price over the 12-month period ending 02/01/12.

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2011 03:19 AM #3

    Thanks DT and Sassy!

    I can’t wait to really dive into the data and think about applying some investing strategies over the next year.

    One quick note, you have my “high” and “target” columns reversed, although I fear it was my mistake in submitting the data in the wrong order. I just don’t want the averages to be slightly off because of it.

    Thanks again!

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 05:17 AM #4

    Hats off, DT and Sassy.  Some nice footwork here.

    Now, if the macro situation will only play along in the world economy.

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2011 08:59 AM #5

    Thanks dt and Sassy for the hard and diligent work that benefits us all.
    On the first look through I noticed that DC930’s target numbers are always higher than his high numbers - don’t know if this is just a transcribing error or not.

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 09:26 AM #6

    Thanks DT, Sassy and all the members that contributed!!

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2011 11:43 AM #7

    Using the target number, the numbers are pretty close together for May 1 with the large majority between 380 and 410.  Very encouraging to see such a narrow range.

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2011 01:01 PM #8

    Thanks DT Sassy and all who contributed! I put on a small position to try to capitalize on all your estimates.

    May 380/390/400 Butterfly cost .85 each total $850.00

    Max possible gain $9150 but I would probably close half as soon as/if we touched 390 regardless of timeframe.

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 01:58 PM #9

    dc930 - 16 February 2011 07:19 AM

    Thanks DT and Sassy!

    I can’t wait to really dive into the data and think about applying some investing strategies over the next year.

    One quick note, you have my “high” and “target” columns reversed, although I fear it was my mistake in submitting the data in the wrong order. I just don’t want the averages to be slightly off because of it.

    Thanks again!

    Don’t sweat it.  grin

    We’ll correct the entry this evening. In all it makes an almost imperceptible difference in the outcome and is immaterial to the averages. We appreciate your participation.  grin

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 01:59 PM #10

    Tetrachloride - 16 February 2011 03:43 PM

    Using the target number, the numbers are pretty close together for May 1 with the large majority between 380 and 410.  Very encouraging to see such a narrow range.

    The goal of the index is to provide a real service to our readers. I’m glad you are finding the resource useful.  grin

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 04:25 PM #11

    The current Street median 12-month price target is $425 per share. This index offers quite the contrast.

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2011 09:24 PM #12

    Nice numbers.  grin

    But at 70% or better eps growth, why aren’t the AFB members looking for share price gains above 57% by February 1,2012?

    I would think earnings would drive the share price higher and closer to $600 by that date.

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2011 09:56 PM #13

    A lot depends on ramp-ups on manufacturing capacity, Chinese regulations and employment numbers.

         
  • Posted: 17 February 2011 12:41 AM #14

    Sparky - 17 February 2011 01:24 AM

    Nice numbers.  grin

    But at 70% or better eps growth, why aren’t the AFB members looking for share price gains above 57% by February 1,2012?

    I would think earnings would drive the share price higher and closer to $600 by that date.

    I agree. My price target for February 2, 2011 is currently $590 per share.

         
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    Posted: 17 February 2011 01:04 AM #15

    Many thanks to DT and Sassy for compiling these #‘s.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG