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Android is winning… Is it?
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John Molloy
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Not in Europe… Apparently…
http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/38347/ios-massively-outshines-android-europe
If you go to the site the chart is interactive… And the comments appear to be full of Android fans in a state of despair.
I meant to post this earlier but got a bit distracted. It raises some questions. Is this what America will look like with carrier choice? Where are Android selling phones then? How can this be?
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Gregg Thurman
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Not in Europe… Apparently…
http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/38347/ios-massively-outshines-android-europe
If you go to the site the chart is interactive… And the comments appear to be full of Android fans in a state of despair.
I meant to post this earlier but got a bit distracted. It raises some questions. Is this what America will look like with carrier choice? Where are Android selling phones then? How can this be?
What is going to be interesting is the April quarterly reports of HTC, Samsung, RIMM and MOT. I didn’t think Verizon would sell as many iPhones as it now appears they have (with over a month to go). Without the US, Android is dead.
I’m pretty sure NOK recognized this. MSFT paid much more than they had to, to get NOK’s business. NOK had nowhere else to go.
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I feel that the one area that this community downplays too much is the Android threat. I just spent the last four days at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona and I can tell you that Google OWNED this event. They were absolutely everywhere, given their plethora of partners. The ever increasing onslaught of devices is going to take a toll in market share in my opinion. It is just a question of how much. Apple will be fine, but when I see phrases like “android is dead”, it just does not ring true to me.
Also, a word about Verizon. Android was their weapon for years against AT&T. That has generated a lot of loyalty and mind share in Verizon employees. It’s like they have to keep reminding themselves that they now have the iPhone. Their booth was a clean sweep for Android. No Apple presence at all.
I realize that a trade show is not the real world, but when you watch the mind share and momentum that Google has created it is something to behold.
We should not underestimate Google.
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Apple will be fine, but when I see phrases like “android is dead”, it just does not ring true to me…We should not underestimate Google.
First, I want to agree that Android is far from dead even if it starts to lose market share in the U.S. There will be many millions of Android devices sold this year.
I’ve only been a member here for a short time, so perhaps I’ve misread the situation. My impression has been that people here do not underestimate Google, rather they are attempting to temper the general overestimation of Google that pervades the ‘net. We’re trying to debunk the “Android is killing iPhone” meme.
A comment on the charts: they seem to be generated from website page views, so that would include iPods touch & iPads. In other words, it is likely a more accurate survey compared to those that pit Android (platform) vs iPhone (single device). The N. America chart shows iOS leading Blackberry by 10% and Android by 12%. The worldwide chart still shows Symbian on top with 30% and iOS in 2nd place with 25%.
StatCounter Global Stats are based on aggregate data collected by StatCounter on a sample exceeding 15 billion page views per month collected from across the StatCounter network of more than three million websites.
Here’s the direct link to the interactive chart.
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I’d really like to see Apple-to-Apples comparisons, no pun intended. How has Apple fared against Android on AT&T, and how well will it do versus them Verizon? It is simply silly to compare a phone that is (barely) on two networks to an OS on lots of phones on all networks.
Head-to-head is all that matters, and I think when all is said and done, iPhones will beat out Android phones on the networks they share.
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John Molloy
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I feel that the one area that this community downplays too much is the Android threat. I just spent the last four days at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona and I can tell you that Google OWNED this event. They were absolutely everywhere, given their plethora of partners. The ever increasing onslaught of devices is going to take a toll in market share in my opinion. It is just a question of how much. Apple will be fine, but when I see phrases like “android is dead”, it just does not ring true to me.
Also, a word about Verizon. Android was their weapon for years against AT&T. That has generated a lot of loyalty and mind share in Verizon employees. It’s like they have to keep reminding themselves that they now have the iPhone. Their booth was a clean sweep for Android. No Apple presence at all.
I realize that a trade show is not the real world, but when you watch the mind share and momentum that Google has created it is something to behold.
We should not underestimate Google.
Yes, Android did indeed own the MWC, because that is all that the people who don’t have iOS have got. Remember MWC is the mobile industry’s CES and as such anyone who has anything to show has to tout their wares at the event. This year Nokia didn’t really play as they are transitioning but HP made a go of their Palm purchase. WIndows of course are hoping to gain some traction but don’t seem to be doing very well (talking about current positions, this will likely change a bit when Nokia actually deliver).
However the one company that started this current trend didn’t bother to turn up, as they didn’t to CES either. They just sat back biding their time, letting the opposition show what they had.
Don’t get me wrong. Apple can’t possibly service the same range of customers that everyone who has invested in Googles gift from heaven can.
However there are a couple of interesting points.
Firstly Google’s approach to releasing Android means that currently there are two different flavors out at the same time. This is not counting their other approach to computing, Chrome. So Google are currently working on three OS’s simultaneously and possibly a forth if they are integrating the two Androids. They say that they are going to eventually roll these into one but at the moment it is very chaotic.
Each manufacturer is trying to one up their competitors so any differentiation between products is usually eclipsed with a few short weeks of each other leading to buyers remorse.
The general impression is that Android is OK. Possibly good enough. But I think when the next generation iPhone hits we’ll have more of an idea of how this will play out in America.
At the moment with Apple taking 51% of the profits from the industry the rest are battling for the scraps.
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At the moment with Apple taking 51% of the profits…
There are multiple ways to “score” or evaluate this Android vs iOS war, but profits really are the ultimate scorecard.
If Google is able to earn $1 billion of mobile ad revenue this year, they’ll be lucky to convert that to $0.5 billion of profit.
Apple is going to sell ~$60+ billion worth of iPhones, iPods touch & iPads. Others could convert it more accurately, but I’m guessing ~$30 billion of profit?
1/2 to 30. If this were a basketball game, the score would be Google 2 - Apple 120.
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The Europe numbers surprised me, but then again, being in the US my point of reference is different.
Also, all of the Android handset makers combined have historically pumped out tens of millions of phones, so retooling for Android means they can collectively outsell Apple for years to come. I’ve made the not-so-bold prediction in the past that Android may well become the next Symbian - and with Symbian’s future in extreme doubt, that may actually come true.
But really, Symbian being the market share leader means…what now? Yeah, last I checked I didn’t see it hurting Apple’s fortunes in the least.
Personally, I still don’t really care about the Android vs. iOS war.
Because there still isn’t one in the sense of true conflict. Both companies are still staking out territory and neither side has shown any signs of running out of room for growth at this point.
Of course, as far as “niche” goes Android and iPhone are occupying the same $199/$299 price territory in many respects. And of course there’s competition. But I am beyond sick and tired of the way-overused meme that Apple wilts in the presence of competition. Seen how Apple’s done lately, anyone?
I wouldn’t necessarily equate “competition” with “threat.” Unless you see everything as a threat the way Apple engages in its amusing, SEC-or-whatever-required hand wringing about everything that could go wrong in its 8-K or 10-K or whatever. Android is surely on Apple’s radar the same way Dell reportedly once was (SJ alleged response to Dell’s “give the money back to the shareholders” was “we’re coming after you, you’re in our sights”). Apple is now out-revenue-ing Dell, and as for profit, well, you know. I see it from the angle of “don’t bet against Apple” rather than “don’t count out Android.” That second part, which is really “don’t count out the competition, period”, goes unsaid for me. Would Apple be doing as well as it has if it counted out the competition to this point?
[ Edited: 18 February 2011 04:22 AM by Mav ]Signature
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Android is surely on Apple’s radar the same way Dell reportedly once was (SJ alleged response to Dell’s “give the money back to the shareholders” was “we’re coming after you, you’re in our sights”).
“It’s not personal, it’s just business.”
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Ratty, the chart looks like Europe is about 6 months behind the US, but with iPhones having a bigger head start and RIM not having an established beachhead (except in the UK). The same fundamentals will drive Android adoption. The phones do not suck. They are pretty magical to most people, and that’s even if you assume that iPhone is more magical. The phones offer more choice and more price points. They will have a lower TCO because of things like replaceable batteries, common SIM cards, and micro USB connectivity. They are more flexible and capable, with technologies like Flash and sideloading to ensure that no control freak gimps your phone with silly rules.
Year over year (2008 - 2009 and 2009 - 2010) smartphone growth as percentage of installed base in the EU was markedly higher than in the US, and that’s probably due to both lack of BB users in the EU and iPhone adoption that brought it to 40%. That build-out favors the iPhone because it was the hot phone in 2008, 2009, and probably the first half of 2010.
I’d say the June numbers will be the most interesting for determining the fate of Europe. If Android starts eating into iPhone, game over by 2012. iPhone will drop to a niche. If iPhone hangs about 40% and Android peaks at 25%, maybe Apple should move to Helsinki. I’ll throw my chips on the former.
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Its dangerous to bet when you don’t consider all the options. You neglected to mention the third potential option, that android loses share (anything can happen right- like getting “slapped” with software litigation or side-loaded malware?).
Regarding the battery issue: are you serious? That’s so last decade.
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Even Euros like choice. Visit a Spanish beach and notice all the different colored banana hammocks the men wear. And of course I’m serious. I can walk into Batteries Plus or the Verizon store for just about any Android phone and have a replacement/extra for less than $50. How long does that battery service take on your iPhone?
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I want to agree that Android is far from dead even if it starts to lose market share in the U.S. There will be many millions of Android devices sold this year.
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I wholeheartedly agree that saying the Android is dead is like saying apple is dead. This debate is funny since the smartphone domination of the industry is in its infancy.Some Android OS phones are awesome products and as an aggregate they will get better over time. There will be far more apps with tremendous functionality, pop, and wow factor which will rival the greatest apps on the iPhone. Android phones will continue to push the technologic envelope as well.
Android will become the dominant phone the world over. Why? Because they are awesome phones/computers and will do what the iPhones will for a similar or lesser price by and large. Market share over the next few year will increase in Europe like it has in the US. I think Android OS is more likely to explode in the 3rd world where folks don’t have the same money as the developed world.
I think it unlikely that Android market share will go down in the US. I think it will become like the PCs of the 80’s and possibly take up to 70-75% of the marketshare.
Nokia made a mistake going with windows, but I don’t know what else they would do other than go with Android OS. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Apple will still remain the largest single smartphone maker and be raking in the greatest profits which will allow them to keep their edge and push the technological envelope better than any of their rivals.
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http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-19512_7-10253445-233.html
Replace your iPhone battery for 6 bucks.
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Even Euros like choice. Visit a Spanish beach and notice all the different colored banana hammocks the men wear. And of course I’m serious. I can walk into Batteries Plus or the Verizon store for just about any Android phone and have a replacement/extra for less than $50. How long does that battery service take on your iPhone?
Less time and probably less money for an external usb charger. Advantage is works with any usb device so multifunctional and doesn’t get trashed if one gets a new phone. But generally Apple is working on improving battery tech so that a second battery isn’t necessary (though it is already proved that most don’t ever buy a second battery but who cares about those facts?). You may have noticed they went with sealed batteries on laptops as well, wonder what could have driven them to that? Finally, lets turn to another sealed battery: in the iPad. Incredible life to it. And, although there are so few competitors to the ipad yet I believe others will be following Apple’s lead with sealed batteries (is this correct?) although they won’t be able to match the life of Apples tech. Then there is the efficiency of the chip etc. And of course it does not run flash which burns it right up.
That gripe is still so last decade.
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... I think it unlikely that Android market share will go down in the US. I think it will become like the PCs of the 80’s and possibly take up to 70-75% of the market share ...
Do you have evidence or cogent basis for this prognosis? The outcome you stated is obviously what Google and its partners are hoping for. I don’t have a time machine so I don’t know what would happen in the future. As an AAPL investor, I would root for Apple. As a consumer, competition is good, keep quality up and price down.
So far from indirect comments and action of carriers and handset makers, iPhone is the iconic phone that consumer desires. Some examples are:
- Elsop, CEO Nokia, said iPhone occupies the high end while Android phone starts from high end but migrated to the mid-range.
- Verizon said during iPhone launch that “everybody knows iPhone is the iconic phone that consume desires”. Verizon is happy to sell iPhone on its network.Signature
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