3/9/2010 - Apple: Sell Before the Fall

  • Posted: 22 February 2011 11:36 PM

    EDIT: Apparently, my post is being misinterpreted. My bad. This is not me talking or me being satirical, witty or ironic. I’m not nearly clever enough to come up with these gems. These are actual excerpts from an article written by Scott Moritz of The Street on March 9, 2010. Enjoy.

    Apple: Sell Before the Fall

    While hard to picture now, Jobs and company will one day, maybe soon, fall out of step with fashion.

    Cool is the whipped confection that Jobs has built the Apple kingdom on, but even the sweetest empires fall.

    PCs Are Back

    A big hurdle to Apple’s mass market success is its incompatibility with PC software, but an even bigger barrier is the shocking contrast in prices. You can buy two PCs for the price of one Mac.

    iPhones Are Stale

    Apple says it has sold 40 million iPhones and analysts estimate the company enjoys lavish 58% gross margins on the device. ... But without a new market—like the one Verizon would open up—or a striking redesign, holding these peak levels will be a challenge.

    The iPad Is A Questionable E-Reader

    Hitting stores on April 3, the iPad is aimed squarely at the Amazon Kindle. ... The iPad price starts at $500 and tops off at $830 with 64 gigabytes of memory, but 3G wireless capability costs extra. By comparison, the Kindle sells for $260 with 2 gigabytes of memory; 3G wireless service is included. ... It’s clear that thousands of people want a thin, color-screen reading tablet, but it’s not clear that millions need it.

    $200 is Too High A Price to Pay For Cool

    PCs are back, which leaves Macs as the yuppie equivalent of BMWs. Paying twice the price for a computer can only be so cool.

    The revolutionary iPhone is getting stale. No fresh market, no fresh phone. Androids are looking like an Apple antidote.

    The iPad is a not so “magical” e-reader. Expect to hear a lot of: “I spent a cold night in line for this?”

    Apple thrived during the downturn on the strength of a great Mac and iPhone product cycle, earning its 145% stock appreciation last year. Today, with the stock around $200, Apple sits at a lofty market value of $189 billion, 57% more than PC giant Hewlett-Packard.

    Investors like to call the stock’s premium valuation “the Apple tax.”

    It might be time for your refund.

    [ Edited: 23 February 2011 01:49 AM by FalKirk ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 22 February 2011 11:42 PM #1

    FalKirk - 23 February 2011 03:36 AM

    Apple: Sell Before the Fall

    While hard to picture now, Jobs and company will one day, maybe soon, fall out of step with fashion.

    Cool is the whipped confection that Jobs has built the Apple kingdom on, but even the sweetest empires fall.

    PCs Are Back

    A big hurdle to Apple’s mass market success is its incompatibility with PC software, but an even bigger barrier is the shocking contrast in prices. You can buy two PCs for the price of one Mac.

    iPhones Are Stale

    Apple says it has sold 40 million iPhones and analysts estimate the company enjoys lavish 58% gross margins on the device. ... But without a new market—like the one Verizon would open up—or a striking redesign, holding these peak levels will be a challenge.

    The iPad Is A Questionable E-Reader

    Hitting stores on April 3, the iPad is aimed squarely at the Amazon Kindle. ... The iPad price starts at $500 and tops off at $830 with 64 gigabytes of memory, but 3G wireless capability costs extra. By comparison, the Kindle sells for $260 with 2 gigabytes of memory; 3G wireless service is included. ... It’s clear that thousands of people want a thin, color-screen reading tablet, but it’s not clear that millions need it.

    $200 is Too High A Price to Pay For Cool

    PCs are back, which leaves Macs as the yuppie equivalent of BMWs. Paying twice the price for a computer can only be so cool.

    The revolutionary iPhone is getting stale. No fresh market, no fresh phone. Androids are looking like an Apple antidote.

    The iPad is a not so “magical” e-reader. Expect to hear a lot of: “I spent a cold night in line for this?”

    Apple thrived during the downturn on the strength of a great Mac and iPhone product cycle, earning its 145% stock appreciation last year. Today, with the stock around $200, Apple sits at a lofty market value of $189 billion, 57% more than PC giant Hewlett-Packard.

    Investors like to call the stock’s premium valuation “the Apple tax.”

    It might be time for your refund.

    lol.  you can’t be serious with all of your responses..

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 22 February 2011 11:43 PM #2

    Stupid me, actually clicked on the link, and lo and behold it was Scott the Moron. He’s definitely being “sponsored” by someone to write his crap.

    Nice post though, puts some of this nonsense in perspective.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 22 February 2011 11:46 PM #3

    Howitzer platoon, target and fire.

    1. Apple already had new markets
    2. iPad was not aimed at the Kindle. 
    3. iPad is a magical e-reader.
    4. Apple thrived during a downturn.  Is SM saying that Apple would not survive during an upturn ? 
    5. Does SM like to rain on other people’s parade ?  They bought a Mac.  They liked it.  They will buy another.
    6. PC incompatibility ?    a.  Boot Camp, Fusion, Parallels.  b.  MS Office for Mac c. macupdate.com   and now the Mac App Store.
    7. 2 “Pieces of Crap” for the price of 1 Mac.  I got a 27” iMac, SM.  What do you have.

         
  • Posted: 23 February 2011 12:17 AM #4

    I find language like this more offensive than the negative analysis.

    While hard to picture now, Jobs and company will one day, maybe soon, fall out of step with fashion.

    Cool is the whipped confection that Jobs has built the Apple kingdom on, but even the sweetest empires fall.

    This constant stream of derision suggesting that Apple is only successful because they fool fashion conscious morons into buying “cool” products really irks me.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 February 2011 01:28 AM #5

    FalKirk,

    Thank you for the talk opposite grin  thread.  Should I call you Squidward LOL ?

    Signature

    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
  • Posted: 23 February 2011 01:51 AM #6

    Mace - 23 February 2011 05:28 AM

    FalKirk,

    Thank you for the talk opposite grin  thread.  Should I call you Squidward LOL ?

    I’ve added the following edit to the top of my original post:

    EDIT: Apparently, my post is being misinterpreted. My bad. This is not me talking or me being satirical, witty or ironic. I’m not nearly clever enough to come up with these gems. These are actual excerpts from an article written by Scott Moritz of The Street on March 9, 2010. Enjoy.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 February 2011 02:26 AM #7

    adamthompson3232 - 23 February 2011 04:27 AM

    I wasn’t sure where to post this but it seems as good a thread as any. Watching Mad Money right now and a caller asked about Intel and Microsoft and why the stocks hadn’t done anything in the past several years. Cramer said it’s because “Apple is killing everything that…..isn’t Apple.” He then went on to say that Apple is the winner and those other guys are perceived as the losers. I couldn’t have put it better myself and in a few years it will be apparent to everyone, even Scott Scott Mor(on)itz.

    In fairness, Intel is a great technology company, with a low PE and a decent dividend. Not sure why it doesn’t do better, especially since so many companies, including Apple, use their chips.

    I think I might take a respite from CNBC for a while, such morons on there. That Haines and Burnett team makes me lose IQ points, even watching it with the sound off.

    Signature

    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 February 2011 02:29 AM #8

    The only part of CNBC I pay attention to is Cramer, sometimes, when he’s right about Apple.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 February 2011 02:48 AM #9

    Mav - 23 February 2011 06:29 AM

    The only part of CNBC I pay attention to is Cramer, sometimes, when he’s right about Apple.

    I do like Squawk Box in the mornings, but it is on too early for the West Coast. They occasionally have some amazing guests. Joe Kernan is a riot.

    Signature

    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 February 2011 03:12 AM #10

    Am I the only person who noticed the link is nearly a year old?

    Come with me guys and jump into my wayback machine and I’ll take you back, back to the future!

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 February 2011 12:39 PM #11

    Mav - 23 February 2011 06:29 AM

    The only part of CNBC I pay attention to is Cramer, sometimes, when he’s right about Apple.

    He is an annoying loud mouth usually..  but he SHOULD be paid attention to..  he is just that smart.

    The other people on CNBC worth taking a listen to are about 2/3’s of the people on Fast Money… particularily the Najarians, Terranova, Seymour and Finnerman (i like her value-based mindset)

    Cramer though…  has been spot on with apple.  He is the first to throw out the 300 target on tv that I seen..

         
  • Posted: 23 February 2011 01:09 PM #12

    Eric Landstrom - 23 February 2011 07:12 AM

    Am I the only person who noticed the link is nearly a year old?

    Come with me guys and jump into my wayback machine and I’ll take you back, back to the future!

    I did label the thread “3/9/2010” but apparently I needed to make it far, far more obvious that I was posting an article from the past.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 February 2011 03:39 PM #13

    FalKirk - 23 February 2011 05:09 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 23 February 2011 07:12 AM

    Am I the only person who noticed the link is nearly a year old?

    Come with me guys and jump into my wayback machine and I’ll take you back, back to the future!

    I did label the thread “3/9/2010” but apparently I needed to make it far, far more obvious that I was posting an article from the past.

    In other news, I once again urge Fal and everyone else to disregard anything by Scott Moritz. If you’re so inclined, put it in the intraday and don’t provide a link. He works for the Street as the “bear” case so that Cramer can do the bull case (or some such).

    The writing is so sloppy - and so consistently anti-Apple over the years - that he can actually re-use an article from a year ago verbatim and not even notice!

    By the way, I didn’t click the link smile