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2015 - 4 Year Outlook
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PED has an article this morning commenting on Gene Munster’s predictions of 25-30% earnings growth for AAPL through 2015. Anyone care to publish a prediction on a Dec 31 2015 share price? We can check back in 4 years to see how close you were (assuming you can get internet service from your yacht).
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PED has an article this morning commenting on Gene Munster’s predictions of 25-30% earnings growth for AAPL through 2015. Anyone care to publish a prediction on a Dec 31 2015 share price? We can check back in 4 years to see how close you were (assuming you can get internet service from your yacht).
Seems like there are no new product lines in his model.
So, that might be called the base case.
Does anyone believe there will be no money-making new products between now and the end of FY 2015?
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PED has an article this morning commenting on Gene Munster’s predictions of 25-30% earnings growth for AAPL through 2015. Anyone care to publish a prediction on a Dec 31 2015 share price? We can check back in 4 years to see how close you were (assuming you can get internet service from your yacht).
I’ll take $2000 for $500 Alex… Impossible to say really because who knows what this crazy ass world is going to bring us between now and then. I certainly don’t know why anyone thinks that growth is magically going to slow to 25-30% in 2012.
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That’s a lot of Apple Stores to build.
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PED has an article this morning commenting on Gene Munster’s predictions of 25-30% earnings growth for AAPL through 2015. Anyone care to publish a prediction on a Dec 31 2015 share price? We can check back in 4 years to see how close you were (assuming you can get internet service from your yacht).
My spread sheet which got revised after 2008 and delayed the stock appreciation by 3 years, tells me we will hit 1000 per share by Dec 2015.
Once WS starts to figure out that after 20% growth for another 10 years is par for the course, we could see that $1000 a share come about 12 months early. Apple needs to persuade WS that it is the MS of smart phones and iPads from now until 2030. Only then we can trade with multiples like priceline, amazon, Netflix and every other darling.
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$2200
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Never have had any luck in guessing what the “market” will do, I really have no clue how or why a company is valued at a certain level.
If a company pays a dividend, then it is fairly easy to see if it is a good investment. But the constant growth in value model never made any sense to me. I’m more of a steady-state process guy, not fond of the ever inflating curve.
But, of course, the big wildcard is the continuing presence of my classmate—Steven P. Jobs. If he either stays away due to medical problems, or shuffles off this mortal coil, then expect the market, fond of acting on fear, to take away ~ 25% of Apple’s value within a year of such an event.
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Never have had any luck in guessing what the “market” will do…expect the market, fond of acting on fear, to take away ~ 25% of Apple’s value within a year of such an event.
Welcome, OldGuy. May your luck continue on it’s path.
The longer Apple flourishes with SJ working part-time, the less impact his eventual retirement will have on AAPL.
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My spreadsheet this minute says
$984$792 in 3 years. This is a 15x trailing, 12x fwd multiple on estimated EPS still growing 25% annually.Edit, because I’m dumb.
[ Edited: 25 February 2011 12:47 PM by deagol ]
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Don’t forget, Gene Munster for the last few years has been stedfast that Apple will in the next few years have an Apple TV. Not the $99 Apple tv which streams to your current HD TV, a dedicated HD Apple TV which will set the bar for future flat screens. If Apple can capture just 10% of this market, the revenues are big.
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Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.
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My spreadsheet this minute says $984 in 3 years. This is a 15x trailing, 12x fwd multiple on estimated EPS still growing 25% annually.
What’s you estimate for Dec. 31 2015?
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My spreadsheet this minute says $984 in 3 years. This is a 15x trailing, 12x fwd multiple on estimated EPS still growing 25% annually.
What’s you estimate for Dec. 31 2015?
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Never have had any luck in guessing what the “market” will do, I really have no clue how or why a company is valued at a certain level.
If a company pays a dividend, then it is fairly easy to see if it is a good investment. But the constant growth in value model never made any sense to me. I’m more of a steady-state process guy, not fond of the ever inflating curve.
But, of course, the big wildcard is the continuing presence of my classmate—Steven P. Jobs. If he either stays away due to medical problems, or shuffles off this mortal coil, then expect the market, fond of acting on fear, to take away ~ 25% of Apple’s value within a year of such an event.
No offense, but I find it laughable that some believe Apple might drop ~25% on such an event. The precarious nature of SJ’s health is priced into the stock. His illness is no secret. There would be no surprise. Anyone materially fearful of such an event has already sold their stock. In fact/ likelihood, the market is already leaning the wrong way and overestimating the impact. In other words, the stock’s going higher, as there are more people who want in on any discount/ sale that such a tragic event will temporarily create.
In other words the drop will be small, temporary (short lived) and quick.
IMO, Apple is more likely to go up 25% then down 25% after such a tragic event as the market prefers certainty, and has already discounted the uncertainty.
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Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.
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Jeffi, I respect your thoughts, but wholeheartedly disagree. It dropped 10% just on the news of him going on leave, 25% is a reasonable expectation. I do agree it will recover shortly afterward, but there will be further p/e compression. My price target for 2015 is $100. :-D
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Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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Jeffi, I respect your thoughts, but wholeheartedly disagree. It dropped 10% just on the news of him going on leave, 25% is a reasonable expectation. I do agree it will recover shortly afterward, but there will be further p/e compression. My price target for 2015 is $100. :-D
Where will the $100 celebration party be, Burbank or Atlanta?
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Jeffi, I respect your thoughts, but wholeheartedly disagree. It dropped 10% just on the news of him going on leave, 25% is a reasonable expectation. I do agree it will recover shortly afterward, but there will be further p/e compression. My price target for 2015 is $100. :-D
Where will the $100 celebration party be, Burbank or Atlanta?
Mad, Mi casa es su casa. You can stay here on our way to Aruba and I can show you some great southern golf courses. Aruba is nice and I would think many members would enjoy it. Heck, I might even have my kitchen done by that time. Going on 3 years now.Signature
Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
