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2015 - 4 Year Outlook
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And Mark, where the heck ya been?
Read the PM I sent you. I am still here, just taking a different role. It is best for the forum. :innocent:
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Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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Jeffi, I respect your thoughts, but wholeheartedly disagree. It dropped 10% just on the news of him going on leave, 25% is a reasonable expectation. I do agree it will recover shortly afterward, but there will be further p/e compression. My price target for 2015 is $100. :-D
Where will the $100 celebration party be, Burbank or Atlanta?
Mad, Mi casa es su casa. You can stay here on our way to Aruba and I can show you some great southern golf courses. Aruba is nice and I would think many members would enjoy it. Heck, I might even have my kitchen done by that time.
Going on 3 years now.Then your target must be $1,000 and not the $100 you posted. As they say on Jeopardy, Alex, I’ll take AAPL for $1,000! Aruba it is!
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Psst. If you like relative anonymity…well, look at your username.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Half-pseudonym.
It’s not like Adam is all that common…uh…nevermind.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Psst. If you like relative anonymity…well, look at your username.
The beauty of my username is that it’s a pseudonym. Adam is my first name. Thompson isn’t my last. Don’t ask where it came from.
Where did it come from or should we ask Bosco, your partner in crime?
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Never have had any luck in guessing what the “market” will do, I really have no clue how or why a company is valued at a certain level.
If a company pays a dividend, then it is fairly easy to see if it is a good investment. But the constant growth in value model never made any sense to me. I’m more of a steady-state process guy, not fond of the ever inflating curve.
But, of course, the big wildcard is the continuing presence of my classmate—Steven P. Jobs. If he either stays away due to medical problems, or shuffles off this mortal coil, then expect the market, fond of acting on fear, to take away ~ 25% of Apple’s value within a year of such an event.
No offense, but I find it laughable that some believe Apple might drop ~25% on such an event. The precarious nature of SJ’s health is priced into the stock. His illness is no secret. There would be no surprise. Anyone materially fearful of such an event has already sold their stock. In fact/ likelihood, the market is already leaning the wrong way and overestimating the impact. In other words, the stock’s going higher, as there are more people who want in on any discount/ sale that such a tragic event will temporarily create.
In other words the drop will be small, temporary (short lived) and quick.
IMO, Apple is more likely to go up 25% then down 25% after such a tragic event as the market prefers certainty, and has already discounted the uncertainty.
Jeffi,
With all due respect, anyone suggesting AAPL will go up at all (even 1%, not to mention 25%) if/when SJ leaves forever is smoking something really, really strong.
All… I was being facetious about the increase. The point was that there is no chance that the stock will drop 25%.
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Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.
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Jeffi, I respect your thoughts, but wholeheartedly disagree. It dropped 10% just on the news of him going on leave, 25% is a reasonable expectation. I do agree it will recover shortly afterward, but there will be further p/e compression. My price target for 2015 is $100. :-D
Where will the $100 celebration party be, Burbank or Atlanta?
Mad, Mi casa es su casa. You can stay here on our way to Aruba and I can show you some great southern golf courses. Aruba is nice and I would think many members would enjoy it. Heck, I might even have my kitchen done by that time. Going on 3 years now.Then your target must be $1,000 and not the $100 you posted. As they say on Jeopardy, Alex, I’ll take AAPL for $1,000! Aruba it is!
No, it s still 100. I really thought you would have figured this out.Signature
Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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After a 10 for 1 split?!
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My spreadsheet this minute says $984 in 3 years. This is a 15x trailing, 12x fwd multiple on estimated EPS still growing 25% annually.
Oops! sorry, that would be $792 (I was looking at the share count number). :dunce:
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My spreadsheet this minute says
$984$792 in 3 years. This is a 15x trailing, 12x fwd multiple on estimated EPS still growing 25% annually.What’s you estimate for Dec. 31 2015?
I only do EPS for the next 3 years, so no FA basis for a target through that. I do however have a revenue estimate of $255b for calendar 2015. Back of the envelope 25% net margin (just a guess) into the 984m shares yields $65 EPS, x15 = $972 price for AAPL. Yes, $792 for March 2014 and $972 for Dec 2015 (dyslexic-looking targets is fortuitous).
[ Edited: 25 February 2011 01:35 PM by deagol ]Signature
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After a 10 for 1 split?!
Winner winner, chicken dinner.Signature
Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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Speculation:
The Five Year Plan, beyond incremental changes.
1. OS X core will be re-written to allow for more flexible security.
2. Apple makes purchases or ventures which fit their DNA, or build their own, or sign some strategic alliances for the longer than 3 years
a. Internet tubes
b. music production company
c. concert promotion company
d. movie production
e. book production
f. search engine (no alliances for this one)3. One to One consultations will spread beyond the Apple Stores. Apple Stores will serve as hubs for 3rd party authorized consultants.
4. Apple makes very large move in the NFC and credit card area, not just the “swipe” portion of a purchase. Apple may purchase a bank and turn it into a credit union.
5. Apple loosens the reins on its PR department.
[ Edited: 20 May 2011 07:51 PM by Tetrachloride ]
