2015 - 4 Year Outlook

  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 01:50 AM #16

    adamthompson3232 - 25 February 2011 04:49 AM

    And Mark, where the heck ya been?

    Read the PM I sent you. I am still here, just taking a different role. It is best for the forum. :innocent:

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 02:17 AM #17

    mbeauch - 25 February 2011 05:48 AM
    madmaxroi - 25 February 2011 04:44 AM
    mbeauch - 25 February 2011 04:37 AM

    Jeffi, I respect your thoughts, but wholeheartedly disagree. It dropped 10% just on the news of him going on leave, 25% is a reasonable expectation. I do agree it will recover shortly afterward, but there will be further p/e compression. My price target for 2015 is $100.  :-D

    Where will the $100 celebration party be, Burbank or Atlanta? smile


    Mad, Mi casa es su casa. You can stay here on our way to Aruba and I can show you some great southern golf courses. Aruba is nice and I would think many members would enjoy it. Heck, I might even have my kitchen done by that time. LOL Going on 3 years now.

    Then your target must be $1,000 and not the $100 you posted.  As they say on Jeopardy, Alex, I’ll take AAPL for $1,000!  Aruba it is! smile

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 02:35 AM #18

    Psst.  If you like relative anonymity…well, look at your username.  wink

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 02:40 AM #19

    Half-pseudonym.  wink 

    It’s not like Adam is all that common…uh…nevermind. raspberry

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 03:04 AM #20

    adamthompson3232 - 25 February 2011 06:37 AM
    Mav - 25 February 2011 06:35 AM

    Psst.  If you like relative anonymity…well, look at your username.  wink

    The beauty of my username is that it’s a pseudonym. Adam is my first name. Thompson isn’t my last. Don’t ask where it came from.

    Where did it come from or should we ask Bosco, your partner in crime?  tongue laugh

         
  • Posted: 25 February 2011 06:17 AM #21

    adamthompson3232 - 25 February 2011 04:32 AM
    jeffi - 25 February 2011 04:24 AM
    OldGuy - 23 February 2011 10:19 PM

    Never have had any luck in guessing what the “market” will do, I really have no clue how or why a company is valued at a certain level.

    If a company pays a dividend, then it is fairly easy to see if it is a good investment. But the constant growth in value model never made any sense to me.  I’m more of a steady-state process guy, not fond of the ever inflating curve. rolleyes

    But, of course, the big wildcard is the continuing presence of my classmate—Steven P. Jobs.  If he either stays away due to medical problems, or shuffles off this mortal coil, then expect the market, fond of acting on fear, to take away ~ 25% of Apple’s value within a year of such an event.

    No offense, but I find it laughable that some believe Apple might drop ~25% on such an event. The precarious nature of SJ’s health is priced into the stock. His illness is no secret. There would be no surprise. Anyone materially fearful of such an event has already sold their stock. In fact/ likelihood, the market is already leaning the wrong way and overestimating the impact. In other words, the stock’s going higher, as there are more people who want in on any discount/ sale that such a tragic event will temporarily create.

    In other words the drop will be small, temporary (short lived) and quick.

    IMO, Apple is more likely to go up 25% then down 25% after such a tragic event as the market prefers certainty, and has already discounted the uncertainty.

    Jeffi,

    With all due respect, anyone suggesting AAPL will go up at all (even 1%, not to mention 25%) if/when SJ leaves forever is smoking something really, really strong.

    All… I was being facetious about the increase. The point was that there is no chance that the stock will drop 25%.

    Signature

    Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 07:49 AM #22

    madmaxroi - 25 February 2011 06:17 AM
    mbeauch - 25 February 2011 05:48 AM
    madmaxroi - 25 February 2011 04:44 AM
    mbeauch - 25 February 2011 04:37 AM

    Jeffi, I respect your thoughts, but wholeheartedly disagree. It dropped 10% just on the news of him going on leave, 25% is a reasonable expectation. I do agree it will recover shortly afterward, but there will be further p/e compression. My price target for 2015 is $100.  :-D

    Where will the $100 celebration party be, Burbank or Atlanta? smile


    Mad, Mi casa es su casa. You can stay here on our way to Aruba and I can show you some great southern golf courses. Aruba is nice and I would think many members would enjoy it. Heck, I might even have my kitchen done by that time. LOL Going on 3 years now.

    Then your target must be $1,000 and not the $100 you posted.  As they say on Jeopardy, Alex, I’ll take AAPL for $1,000!  Aruba it is! smile


    No, it s still 100. I really thought you would have figured this out. LOL

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Posted: 25 February 2011 08:46 AM #23

    After a 10 for 1 split?!

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 11:45 AM #24

    deagol - 24 February 2011 05:48 PM

    My spreadsheet this minute says $984 in 3 years. This is a 15x trailing, 12x fwd multiple on estimated EPS still growing 25% annually.

    Oops! sorry, that would be $792 (I was looking at the share count number). :dunce:

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 12:09 PM #25

    ChasMac77 - 25 February 2011 01:21 AM
    deagol - 24 February 2011 05:48 PM

    My spreadsheet this minute says $984 $792 in 3 years. This is a 15x trailing, 12x fwd multiple on estimated EPS still growing 25% annually.

    What’s you estimate for Dec. 31 2015?

    I only do EPS for the next 3 years, so no FA basis for a target through that. I do however have a revenue estimate of $255b for calendar 2015. Back of the envelope 25% net margin (just a guess) into the 984m shares yields $65 EPS, x15 = $972 price for AAPL. Yes, $792 for March 2014 and $972 for Dec 2015 (dyslexic-looking targets is fortuitous).

    [ Edited: 25 February 2011 12:35 PM by deagol ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 25 February 2011 10:31 PM #26

    JonathanU - 25 February 2011 12:46 PM

    After a 10 for 1 split?!


    Winner winner, chicken dinner. LOL

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 20 May 2011 06:38 PM #27

    Speculation:

    The Five Year Plan, beyond incremental changes.

    1. OS X core will be re-written to allow for more flexible security. 

    2. Apple makes purchases or ventures which fit their DNA, or build their own, or sign some strategic alliances for the longer than 3 years
    a. Internet tubes
    b. music production company
    c. concert promotion company
    d. movie production
    e. book production
    f. search engine (no alliances for this one)

    3. One to One consultations will spread beyond the Apple Stores.  Apple Stores will serve as hubs for 3rd party authorized consultants.

    4. Apple makes very large move in the NFC and credit card area, not just the “swipe” portion of a purchase.  Apple may purchase a bank and turn it into a credit union.

    5. Apple loosens the reins on its PR department.

    [ Edited: 20 May 2011 07:51 PM by Tetrachloride ]