AFB Member FQ2 Estimate Index (Work In Progress Edition)

  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 March 2011 12:34 AM

    Hi everybody!

    It’s that time! Apple’s fiscal quarter closes on Saturday, March 26th and entries for the AFB Member FQ2 Estimate Index are due in this topic no later than 6pm Cupertino Time on Friday, April 1st. The day is the 35th anniversary of the company’s establishment. This gives everyone about a week following the end of the quarter to complete their numbers.

    The index will be posted by the end of the weekend following the 1st of April.

    Best wishes to everyone and we are excited by what we know will be the most successful FQ2 in the company’s 35 year history.

    Sassy

    [ Edited: 03 April 2011 10:44 PM by DawnTreader ]

    Signature

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 01:01 AM #1

    From a prior topic:

    Tetrachloride - 20 March 2011 10:03 PM

    The previous quarter’s thread 

    Here’s the projection for last quarter by westech, to pick a nice looking example

    By comparison, I guess

    CPU’s at 3.5 million
    iPods at 7.2 million
    iPhones at 19 million
    iPads at 6.4 million
    Software at $ 1 billion
    Peripherals steady at $ 600
    itunes steady at $ 1600

    gross margin 39.2. 

    Casts the dice:  24.5 B revenue,  EPS 5.90.

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 01:03 AM #2

    From a prior topic:

    PurpleApple - 22 March 2011 02:51 AM

    My current FQ2 2011 numbers:

    Revenue: $25.3B
    GM: 40%
    OpEx: 9.5%
    Provision for taxes: 23.5%
    Shares: 937MM
    EPS: $6.37

    Unit sales
    Mac - 4.0MM
    iPhone - 18.4MM
    iPod - 10.1MM
    iPad - 6.0MM

    I welcome feedback from anyone.

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 01:05 AM #3

    From a prior topic:

    libranca - 22 March 2011 11:40 AM

    My estimates:
    Q2 eps: 5.9
    Revenue: $24B

    Few thoughts:
    - Q2 Guidance was higher (than Q1) but some of it was to dampen the impact of news of SJ’s medical leave announced a day before earnings.
    - Gross margin will be the big difference between Q1 and Q2. My expectation is around 40%.
    - Japan event will not affect Q2 numbers much. I think all retail stores are open and operational.

    Anything above 6 eps would be blockbuster but I am not expecting it mainly because VZ iPhone launch was not mega success. I think it is selling well but just not as spectacularly and with huge sales as some had predicted including Apple. It was clear that Apple stores planned and prepared for lines that never materialized. iPhone sales should come in at 17M+ this quarter.

    Q1 used to be significantly higher and now it is not as much. Last year Q2 was about 90% of Q1 eps. And this has been getting higher every year used to be about 70% ( 91%, 72%, 67%, 76%). I think Apple has done well with product launches spread in various quarters to mitigate impact of seasonality.

    libranca, we need a full set of numbers for the index. You’ve done most of the work.  grin

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 01:07 AM #4

    From a prior topic:

    cdodge - 22 March 2011 04:39 PM

    Revenue: $25.45B
    EPS: $6.57

    I will post the more detailed estimate when DT calls for them.

    We’re knocking on the door!  grin

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 01:10 AM #5

    From a prior topic:

    Tetrachloride - 20 March 2011 08:46 PM

    Jan 18, 2011, Apple reports $ 26.74 billion revenue and 6.43 EP.  Guidance is $ 22 billion and 4.90 EPS.

    Unusual points:

    1. Q1 was beyond the official expectations of all on Wall Street.
    2. Q2 guidance was also beyond.
    3. Q2 revenue guidance was only 4.4 % below Q1 guidance.  (there are several ways to arrive at this general point)
    4. Q2 EPS guidance was a bit higher than guidance for Q1. 

    Products released recently

    1. MacBook Airs updated in Oct 2010
    2. MacBook Pros updated in Feb 2011
    3. iPad 2—10 days ago
    4. VZ iPhone released Feb 2011
    5. Mac App store goes live Jan 2011

    The Great Tohoku Japan Earthquake (probably the official name in English as translated from Japanese) and Tsunami of March 11, 2011 will have minimal impact on results for Q2. 

    Q3 momentum and supplies are the big questions in the guidance numbers ahead.

    tetra, I appreciate the information gathering for the above post.  grin

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 March 2011 01:32 AM #6

    Sassy - 23 March 2011 03:34 AM

    Hi everybody!

    It’s that time! Apple’s fiscal quarter closes on Saturday, March 26th and entries for the AFB Member FQ2 Estimate Index are due in this topic no later than 6pm Cupertino Time on Friday, April 1st. The day is the 35th anniversary of the company’s establishment. This gives everyone about a week following the end of the quarter to complete their numbers.

    The index will be posted by the end of the weekend following the 1st of April.

    Best wishes to everyone and we are excited by what we know will be the most successful FQ2 in the company’s 35 year history.

    Sassy

    Does the quarter include Saturday’s sales? Just want to be sure to include it in my estimate.  tongue laugh

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 March 2011 01:38 AM #7

    Since fiscal Q2 ends on Saturday, I’d figure Saturday’s included.  What that means in terms of international time, I can’t remember if Apple ever answered that.  Would make sense for fiscal quarters to end on 11:59pm Cupertino time.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 March 2011 01:48 AM #8

    Apple’s making it very difficult to estimate iPad sales this quarter.  I feel like I have no choice but to be more conservative on the iPad number, because several hundred thousand units that would otherwise count as sales had the launch been earlier in the month will probably be counted in fiscal Q3.

    Hoping for a data point by next week, though I can still do the rest of my home game, proprietary Dartboard Guessing(tm) in the meantime.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 10:09 AM #9

    DawnTreader - 23 March 2011 04:07 AM

    From a prior topic:

    cdodge - 22 March 2011 04:39 PM

    Revenue: $25.45B
    EPS: $6.57

    I will post the more detailed estimate when DT calls for them.

    We’re knocking on the door!  :-)

    Product               Rev($M)   Units
    -------------------   -------   ------
    iPhone                11,809     18.86
    Mac                    4
    ,588      3.64
    iPad                   4
    ,180      6.45
    iPod                   1
    ,825      9.92

    Revenue      25
    ,454
    GM 40.1
    %
    OPEX          2,446
    Other Income    100
    IBT           7
    ,861
    Tax 21.7
    %
    NI            6,155

    EPS 6.57 

    Signature

    @chasedodge

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 12:32 PM #10

    cdodge, thanks for filling out the numbers.  grin

         
  • Posted: 23 March 2011 02:52 PM #11

    Here is my forecast for FQ2, 2011.  Too many uncertainties.

    ?t=1300902584

    Signature

    The measure of the worth of a product is how much people are willing to pay for it, not how many people will buy it if the price is low enough.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 March 2011 06:51 PM #12

    My estimate, including information on guidance and performance to last year.

    Note the last line. What the earnings would have been like if we excluded the iPad. (wasn’t there last year for Q2)

         
  • Posted: 24 March 2011 01:18 AM #13

    The numbers are rolling in and it looks like members of the AFB crowd are doing their homework.  grin

    I’m looking forward to the index results.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 24 March 2011 11:01 AM #14

    Hopefully the whisper copier people will think it’s an April Fools thing! LOL

    Although it was linked on the other thread (thanks Tet) I’ll copy-paste it here:

    Revenue breakdown:
    Mac        4,724 3,648 ? $1,295)
    iPod       1,815 (10,133 ?   $179)
    iPhone    11,238 (17,652 ?   $637)
    iPad       4,450 7,111 ?   $626)
    iTunes     1,707
    Periph       571
    Software     760

    Income statement
    :
    Revenue   25,265
    COGS      14
    ,996
    GM        10
    ,268
    OpEx       2
    ,410
    OpInc      7
    ,858
    OI
    &E          45
    Pre
    -tax    7,903
    Tax        1
    ,976
    NetInc     5
    ,927
    Shrs
    .        938
    EPS         6.32

    Ratios
    :
    GM%        40.6%
    OpInc%     31.1%
    Tax%       25.0%
    NetInc%    23.5
         
  • Posted: 24 March 2011 04:15 PM #15

    It is just a gift to be reading this. Thanks Deagol. A few moments ago I read of Horace’s take on the pitiful forecasts of analysts. Seeing Deagol’s forecast after that was like a breath of fresh air.