2012

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    Posted: 13 April 2011 06:50 PM

    1. Apple HDTV ( it could be this year if Steve says so)
    2. NFC (Near Field Communications)  which year, who knows
    3. iPad 3
    4. Mobile Me acceleration
    5. Thunderbolt market acceleration
    6. 4G
    7. WiMax
    8. more SSD Macs
    9. iPod Classic 500
    10. Apple Retail Oz lighting up China
    11. Tim Cook prominence is also brighter
    12. Apple makes some strategic purchases, sooner or later
    13. The center of gravity between Apple and content providers shifts.  Telecoms concerned.
    14. Business and governments continues shift to Apple products.  At least one US state joins Maine as a prime customer.
    15. BrazilNuts hosts a party in Rio
    16. Apple buys key distribution rights to The Hobbit
    17. Smaller Apple stores in the US to move or expand
    18. Music, Movie and Music Stores get a major facelift
    19. Trackpad prices fall
    20. Wireless recharging gets traction
    21. iOS flash drives go as high as 256G
    22. Kinect does not go unignored by Apple.
    23. iOS devices in cars
    24. By now, most of the tech world has realized it has underestimated what Apple is doing with its data centers.
    25. Some of Apple retail partners face cutoff if they don’t improve service. 

    Bonus:  Steve Ballmer forced to resign

         
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    Posted: 13 April 2011 07:27 PM #1

    Nice list.

    If AAPL add HDTVs to their portfolio, then I think they sell 10 million easy in FY2012.

    EPS for 2012 can easily break through $50

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  • Posted: 14 April 2011 11:46 AM #2

    The hardest part about making predictions about future Apple products and news is to keep your wishful thinking out of it. With that disclaimer aside, here’s my Apple predictions for the remainder of 2011 and 2012:

    1) iPhone 5 out in the fall 2011. Four inch screen, LTE ready and first Apple product to be made with a new liquid metal injection molding proces - Apple patented of course.

    2) iPad 3 surprise in late fall 2011. Double the screen resolution of iPad 2 (near-Retina display resolution). Also made in liquid metal. Screen size possibly upped to 10,1-10,2 inch. Same physical over all size of the device itself. Storage capacity options now ranging from 32GB-128GB. Lighter than the iPad 2. iPad 2 stays around at a new 399 dollar price. (much wailing and gnashing of teeth among Apple’s tablet competitors).

    3) Fall 2011, iPods in liquid metal.

    4) Fall 2011, Apple introduces their new seamless cloud service. Mobile Me in a basic form comes free with every new Mac or iOS device. Part digital locker, part streaming server for music and movies, part syncing service to keep your Macs and iOS devices synced OTA in a seamless manner. Personal online gallery linked with iPhoto and iMovie and much more. Video on demand and music subscription service on Apple TV.

    5) Early 2012. Steve Jobs resigns as Apple CEO due to health issues (yes, I’m sorry too ). Tim Cook most likely new Apple CEO.

    6) The authorized Steve Jobs biography “iSteve - The Book of Jobs” is released.

    7) A new version of Apple TV effectively turns it into an iOS game console. Controlled from your iOS device.

    [ Edited: 14 April 2011 01:59 PM by Garion ]

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  • Posted: 14 April 2011 11:48 AM #3

    Agree, nice list.

    I suspect we not will be seeing the iPad3 in 2011, based on reports in DigiTimes, so 2012 may be about right.

    Also agree SSD in Macs will become more common. I just got my 17” quad core i7 MBP 2 days ago, and like the core 2 duo before it, ordered with the SSD (500 GB). I think we will see breakthrough to larger SSD storage sizes by the end of 2011 and prices beginning to climb down.

    I think 2012 will see a few more things, in addition to your list:

    1) Greater definition in the interplay between iOS and OSX, with an emphasis on porting more robust production capability to the former from OSX. iOS will achieve greater balance between its content consumption and production capabilities. It will also gain greater independence from the traditional computer for core functionality in the iPad.

    2) Macs: adaptations in Lion permitting Macs to take fuller advantage of Thunderbolt, and the end of optical drives as standard issue on Macs

    3) Cloud: robust and secure productivity and consumer services, including high-performance ‘access anywhere’ options for stored media.

    4) Software: Revisions (long overdue) to iTunes, making it easier to store libraries off-drive and onto the cloud, as well as manage libraries

    5) ATV: hardware aside, greater elaboration of Apple TV into a more generalised iOS platform for games, communication, and interactive media

    There’s more, but duty calls. Perhaps I will return and add one or two more.

    [ Edited: 14 April 2011 12:19 PM by wab95 ]

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  • Posted: 14 April 2011 12:34 PM #4

    I certainly agree with you about SSD options becoming both cheaper and more commonplace in Macs in 2012. I also agree about the over all trend of harmonizing MacOS X and iOS in both form and function. We’ll see that happening in areas big and small in the next couple years.

    Oh, and iTunes! Yes, very important! I completely forgot about that. Let’s face it, iTunes has become one unwieldly “swiss army knife” of an app burdoned with far too many tasks as it stands today. In short: It’s become bloated! A much needed iTunes revision has to strip it of its iOS syncing duties and transfer those to the new cloud services. iTunes activation and syncing should no longer be a necessity for your new iPhone or iPad. Those things should be OTA syncing and updating put in the cloud.

    iTunes needs to be brought back to its original purpose as a music player/ripper/organizer and nothing else.

    [ Edited: 14 April 2011 12:46 PM by Garion ]

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    Posted: 14 April 2011 03:28 PM #5

    1. Jony Ive or Meg Whitman CEO.
    2. 10% marketshare smartphones.
    3. 25% marketshare tablets, behind Android, with Windows tablets ready to pass.
    4. Pays Adobe $1B to expedite Flash in iOS browser and AIR shared library for iOS.
    5. App Store accounts for < 30% of sales on iOS platform.

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2011 06:04 PM #6

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 14 April 2011 06:28 PM

    1. Jony Ive or Meg Whitman CEO.
    2. 10% marketshare smartphones.
    3. 25% marketshare tablets, behind Android, with Windows tablets ready to pass.
    4. Pays Adobe $1B to expedite Flash in iOS browser and AIR shared library for iOS.
    5. App Store accounts for < 30% of sales on iOS platform.


    Looks like Adobe still has some work ahead if this review is any indication of the state of Flash on Android Honeycomb
    Infoworld tried flash on the Xoom

    Flash lacks a certain touch
    As I continued my tests, it became clear that these initial problems weren’t limited to streaming video. In general, the Flash Player for Android 3.0 does not do a good job of scaling bitmap images. This becomes especially clear when scaling bitmapped text, which becomes blocky and hard to read at small sizes.

    The difficulties of navigating Flash UIs on a touchscreen device are increasingly troublesome, and unfortunately they’re endemic to the Flash platform. Flash developers are even more likely than traditional Web developers to populate their UIs with rollovers, fancy animations, and aesthetically appealing yet nonstandard controls, none of which work well on a device with a small screen and no mouse [7].

    Scrolling the screen is a particularly egregious example. Android tablets don’t use the traditional scroll bars of a mouse-based UI; instead, users swipe with their fingers to scroll. Flash apps don’t seem to understand this concept. Once a Flash movie loads into part of the browser window, that part of the window no longer responds to swipes. If you need to scroll the window—say, to make sure the Flash content is centered on the screen—you have to carefully touch your finger on a portion of the page that corresponds to HTML, so the browser will know you’re trying to scroll.

    That’s true most of the time, anyway. The worst part is the player’s inconsistent behavior. This gets really frustrating when there’s lots of HTML and Flash content mixed on a Web page. The UI turns into a tug-of-war between the browser and the Flash Player, where each touch produces varying effects, seemingly at random. Depending on where your finger happens to land—and maybe on your timing—one touch might be interpreted as a command for the browser and the next might activate controls in a Flash movie, while the next might do nothing. Adobe simply has not done enough to accommodate touch-based interfaces.

    Applications? Forget it
    Needless to say, these deficiencies are compounded when you try to use Flash Player for real work. For my next assessment I wanted to see how the Xoom would handle complex Flash-based applications. I had the perfect torture test in mind: Adobe’s own Acrobat.com [8], which features a Google Docs-like suite of office applications implemented in Flash. Unfortunately, on the Xoom I was greeted with the message, “Sorry, but Adobe Acrobat.com is not compatible with your browser at this time. Please upgrade to a supported browser.” That should have been my first hint.

    When I did track down some demo Adobe Flex applications that would load in the Android browser, my reaction was utter disappointment. Visually they were appealing enough, but they didn’t do much to accommodate the tablet-sized screen, which meant I had to scroll around a lot (where possible). The UI controls were all nonstandard, and many assumed I had a mouse.

    Worst of all was form input, a mainstay of any business application. When presented with a Flash-based form, I literally had to stab my finger at the Xoom’s screen six or seven times before my touch would register as a click. Finally some random form field would be highlighted, irrespective of where my finger landed, and the onscreen keyboard would pop up. Woe betide me if the wrong field was highlighted, though, because Tab and Shift-Tab would both advance me forward through the form fields. There didn’t seem to be any way to go back, and I dared not try to select another field by touch. In a nutshell, Flash-based forms are a total nonstarter on Android tablets. Forget about them.

    What about games? Even there, I didn’t have much luck. One simple balloon-popping game rendered in my browser window, then inexplicably leaped up and to the left, leaving a white square where the Flash content was supposed to be. I could scroll the window to see the game screen, but to control the game I still had to touch inside the white square. It was hopeless.

    As far as I could tell, there was one thing and one thing only that the Flash Player for Android 3.0 accomplished successfully. On the stock Android browser, Flash content is invisible, so you don’t notice Flash-based advertising. With the Flash Player installed, however, all those ads suddenly appear where once there were none, their animated graphics leaping and scuttling under your fingertips like cockroaches on a dinner tray—some achievement.

         
  • Posted: 14 April 2011 06:35 PM #7

    pats - 14 April 2011 09:04 PM
    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 14 April 2011 06:28 PM

    1. Jony Ive or Meg Whitman CEO.
    2. 10% marketshare smartphones.
    3. 25% marketshare tablets, behind Android, with Windows tablets ready to pass.
    4. Pays Adobe $1B to expedite Flash in iOS browser and AIR shared library for iOS.
    5. App Store accounts for < 30% of sales on iOS platform.

    Ha! I didn’t see this at first because I have Bosco on “ignore”. When I first saw this list I misread it. I thought that Pats was being funny and suggesting that “Meg Ryan” - not “Meg Whitman” - was going to be CEO. It’s just as realistic and any of the other drivel on Bosco’s list.

    Would you all please do me, the board and yourselves a favor and put Bosco on ignore or have the courtesy to never, never, ever quote his posts? I love a good discussion as much as anyone but Bosco never brings anything to the table. Every thread he touches, he destroys. You want proof? Watch what happens to this thread now that Bosco has made an appearance.

    I’m begging you - put Bosco on ignore. It’s what the function was made for.

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2011 08:50 PM #8

    I agree there’s a convergence out there of MacBook Air and iPad if 3G is not in the deck.

    I would prefer that Convergence be based on OS X than iOS.  I leave off the technical obstacles for those with more knowledge on interrupt hierarchies, battery management or XCode.

         
  • Posted: 14 April 2011 10:02 PM #9

    Two other things for on my list for 2012:

    6) True voice interface development with initial piloting on both iOS and OSX. This is the next platform added to the pantheon of keyboard/mouse GUI (OSX), touch (iOS), then true handsfree voice (the next big thing). I don’t anticipate its maturation into its own discrete hardware deployment by 2012. Perhaps not until after 2015.

    7) Increased battery life for laptops (e.g. 10h). 2012 will be too early for wireless power supply, but one can dream.

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    Posted: 14 April 2011 10:51 PM #10

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 14 April 2011 06:28 PM

    2. 10% marketshare smartphones.
    3. 25% marketshare tablets, behind Android, with Windows tablets ready to pass.
    4. Pays Adobe $1B to expedite Flash in iOS browser and AIR shared library for iOS.
    5. App Store accounts for < 30% of sales on iOS platform.

    And you would be willing to wager HOW much on 2, or 3, or 5, over the next 18 months?

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  • Posted: 15 April 2011 12:20 AM #11

    redge - 15 April 2011 01:55 AM
    FalKirk - 14 April 2011 09:35 PM

    I’m begging you - put Bosco on ignore. It’s what the function was made for.

    Bosco, I don’t know anything about you, except that as a result of Falkirk begging me to put you on ignore, I read your post, and I can’t find anything wrong with it. I don’t agree with you, but that’s fine.

    And without it I’m not sure I would have seen Infoworlds takedown of flash on the XOOM courtesy of Pats.  Thanks Pats.

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    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:06 AM #12

    Tethra, on item 15, even though Rio is a wonderful city, would gladly host a party in Sao Paulo, to celebrate the inauguration of the new Apple factory there. Or how about, first Apple store in Latin America? Carnaval time 2012, World Cup 2014 or Olympics 2016? grin

    The link is for the opening vignette Carnaval 2011 of Globo Network (largest latin american tv network and one of world’s largest). This is like Super Bowl for TV in Brazil. Just a warning, Brazilian TV does not have same rating standards as US. Here

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:15 AM #13

    BrazilNuts - 15 April 2011 04:06 AM

    Tethra, on item 15, even though Rio is a wonderful city, would gladly host a party in Sao Paulo, to celebrate the inauguration of the new Apple factory there. Or how about, first Apple store in Latin America? Carnaval time 2012, World Cup 2014 or Olympics 2016? grin

    The link is for the opening vignette Carnaval 2011 of Globo Network (largest latin american tv network and one of world’s largest). This is like Super Bowl for TV in Brazil. Just a warning, Brazilian TV does not have same rating standards as US. Here

    If you are hosting the party in Sao Paulo, I’m there.

    I’ll bring Anne.  :wink:

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    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:53 AM #14

    redge - 15 April 2011 01:55 AM

    Bosco, I don’t know anything about you, except that as a result of Falkirk begging me to put you on ignore, I read your post, and I can’t find anything wrong with it. I don’t agree with you, but that’s fine.

    Yeah, the social skills of the many of the regulars here leave a lot to be desired. I noticed they called you a “troll” for posting something that disagrees with the orthodoxy, you fracking heretic.

    More than a year ago, I was telling the fine folks here how Android phones would clobber the iPhone. They denied and resisted the whole way. Now they accept, but with caveats like “profit share” and “fragmentation”. It’s the same stuff Apple fans like me were spouting in the early to mid 90s.

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:55 AM #15

    Red shirted ensign - 15 April 2011 04:15 AM
    BrazilNuts - 15 April 2011 04:06 AM

    Tethra, on item 15, even though Rio is a wonderful city, would gladly host a party in Sao Paulo, to celebrate the inauguration of the new Apple factory there. Or how about, first Apple store in Latin America? Carnaval time 2012, World Cup 2014 or Olympics 2016? grin

    The link is for the opening vignette Carnaval 2011 of Globo Network (largest latin american tv network and one of world’s largest). This is like Super Bowl for TV in Brazil. Just a warning, Brazilian TV does not have same rating standards as US. Here

    If you are hosting the party in Sao Paulo, I’m there.

    I’ll bring Anne.  :wink:

    You will be issuing the invitations when date and venue is decided! Welcome! grin