2012

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    Posted: 15 April 2011 02:25 AM #16

    World Cup is very tempting.  3 years from now we may be lucky and celebrate 1000 if the iPad follows the path of the iPod.smile

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 03:35 AM #17

    FalKirk - 14 April 2011 09:35 PM

    I’m begging you - put Bosco on ignore. It’s what the function was made for.

    Funny, I did too (a while back)! I think he’s the only one on ignore for me.
    Thanks for the picture of Meg (the better-looking one).

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 03:36 AM #18

    BrazilNuts - 15 April 2011 04:55 AM

    You will be issuing the invitations when date and venue is decided! Welcome! grin


    BrazilNuts, party in Sao Paulo sounds tempting… now if only the stock cooperates in the next couple of years… (Bet it will, just at wild pace as always… Up only 40% in the last year. 100% in the year before. Time to catch up).

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:27 PM #19

    Intel defends USB 3 amidst Thunderbolt

    Well, pardon my french, but 3 years from now, why would I need USB 3 ?

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 02:19 PM #20

    24. clarified.  One way or another, I believe that Apple will undercut Google further.  Maps, YouTube, Search, user privacy.  Look at these 3 comments from MacDailyNews

    link

    m159
    Friday, April 15, 2011 - 12:55 pm

    After Jobs visited Mountain View and saw the depths of Google?s betrayal, he bought two internet map companies. Why would he do that? Google should not be shocked to wake up one day and find all Apple products default to AppleSearch. They will regret their decision to emulate Bill Gates.


    Alex
    Friday, April 15, 2011 - 1:00 pm

    I can?t wait for Apple to launch a new search engine that is focused on users vs. advertisers


    Truth
    Friday, April 15, 2011 - 1:05 pm ?

    Agreed

         
  • Posted: 15 April 2011 03:09 PM #21

    BrazilNuts - 15 April 2011 04:06 AM

    Tethra, on item 15, even though Rio is a wonderful city, would gladly host a party in Sao Paulo, to celebrate the inauguration of the new Apple factory there. Or how about, first Apple store in Latin America? Carnaval time 2012, World Cup 2014 or Olympics 2016? grin

    The link is for the opening vignette Carnaval 2011 of Globo Network (largest latin american tv network and one of world’s largest). This is like Super Bowl for TV in Brazil. Just a warning, Brazilian TV does not have same rating standards as US. Here

    The Girls of Ipanema

    Do you have to pay extra for that channel?  Great way to get your financial news.

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 03:34 PM #22

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 15 April 2011 04:53 AM

    ... It’s the same stuff Apple fans like me were spouting in the early to mid 90s.

    This statement confirmed Gregg Thurman’s suspicion that he has missed out on the monstrous AAPL run and the resurgence of Apple.  The same reason why many aging Wall Streeters and CIOs dislike Apple and AAPL.

    Signature

    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 07:54 PM #23

    Gregg Thurman - 15 April 2011 06:09 PM
    BrazilNuts - 15 April 2011 04:06 AM

    Tethra, on item 15, even though Rio is a wonderful city, would gladly host a party in Sao Paulo, to celebrate the inauguration of the new Apple factory there. Or how about, first Apple store in Latin America? Carnaval time 2012, World Cup 2014 or Olympics 2016? grin

    The link is for the opening vignette Carnaval 2011 of Globo Network (largest latin american tv network and one of world’s largest). This is like Super Bowl for TV in Brazil. Just a warning, Brazilian TV does not have same rating standards as US. Here

    The Girls of Ipanema

    Do you have to pay extra for that channel?  Great way to get your financial news.

    Haven’t been to Carnival since ‘05. No nudity. Scantily clad? Yes. Nudity? Nope.

    Moreover, it’s with great sadness that I report there is absolutely no nudity on the beach at Ipanema, Copacabana or any other beaches in Rio.

    Saw two American girls get read the riot act by a couple of locals for taking their tops off on Ipanema . Sad. Sad. Sad state of affairs.

    Rio is great, Carnival is a lot of fun. Just not the debaucherous orgy of flesh many folks are led to believe. Incredibly beautiful women. Something in the water down there.

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 08:11 PM #24

    Gregg Thurman - 15 April 2011 06:09 PM
    BrazilNuts - 15 April 2011 04:06 AM

    Tethra, on item 15, even though Rio is a wonderful city, would gladly host a party in Sao Paulo, to celebrate the inauguration of the new Apple factory there. Or how about, first Apple store in Latin America? Carnaval time 2012, World Cup 2014 or Olympics 2016? grin

    The link is for the opening vignette Carnaval 2011 of Globo Network (largest latin american tv network and one of world’s largest). This is like Super Bowl for TV in Brazil. Just a warning, Brazilian TV does not have same rating standards as US. Here

    The Girls of Ipanema

    Do you have to pay extra for that channel?  Great way to get your financial news.

    grin No, open channel, in Brazil like CBS. Third largest only after CBS and NBC. Watched by 120 million people daily. Available in the US (paid) through DirecTV, Dish Network and some other cable providers such as Brighthouse and Comcast.

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2011 08:23 PM #25

    xian - 15 April 2011 10:54 PM
    Gregg Thurman - 15 April 2011 06:09 PM
    BrazilNuts - 15 April 2011 04:06 AM

    Tethra, on item 15, even though Rio is a wonderful city, would gladly host a party in Sao Paulo, to celebrate the inauguration of the new Apple factory there. Or how about, first Apple store in Latin America? Carnaval time 2012, World Cup 2014 or Olympics 2016? grin

    The link is for the opening vignette Carnaval 2011 of Globo Network (largest latin american tv network and one of world’s largest). This is like Super Bowl for TV in Brazil. Just a warning, Brazilian TV does not have same rating standards as US. Here

    The Girls of Ipanema

    Do you have to pay extra for that channel?  Great way to get your financial news.

    Haven’t been to Carnival since ‘05. No nudity. Scantily clad? Yes. Nudity? Nope.

    Moreover, it’s with great sadness that I report there is absolutely no nudity on the beach at Ipanema, Copacabana or any other beaches in Rio.

    Saw two American girls get read the riot act by a couple of locals for taking their tops off on Ipanema . Sad. Sad. Sad state of affairs.

    Rio is great, Carnival is a lot of fun. Just not the debaucherous orgy of flesh many folks are led to believe. Incredibly beautiful women. Something in the water down there.

    No tops off in high density beaches. Bare-off in secluded beaches. If they show more than what a string bikini reveals, there would be no surprises left, like hair style and so on. Yes, Carnival is lots of fun, it is and epic production with more than 7,000 people plus musicians in one samba school. Not a big orgy, subtle orgy. grin

    This could be educative and gives an overall view of Carnaval in Brazil

         
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    Posted: 26 May 2011 06:31 PM #26

    Andy Zaky lays out his estimates for FY2012 iPhone sales and revenues, assuming iPhone 5 launch in September.  Sales estimate is for 115 million.  http://seekingalpha.com/article/271953-2012-the-115-million-iphone-year


    Fiscal Q1 2012 iPhone Estimates (assuming September upgrade cycle)

    Apple will probably add about 2.5 million units in fiscal Q1 2012 if the iPhone is launched in September. I expect Apple to post sales of about 29 million iPhones which represents a 78.6% year-over-year rise above the 16.24 million units Apple sold in Q1 2011. I expect Apple to be completely stretched to full capacity on the quarter and there will be spill-over into fiscal Q2 and fiscal Q3.

    iPhone revenues should skyrocket to $18.6 billion on the quarter resulting in Apple breaking $10.00 in earnings per share for the first time in the company’s history.

    Fiscal Q2 2012 iPhone Estimates (assuming September upgrade cycle)

    Fiscal Q2 will be even more dramatic. As Apple begins to bring the company to supply-demand parity, millions of purchases will roll-over to fiscal Q2. I expect sales to jump by 3 million units over my original estimates. Unit sales should come somewhere around 30 million units for the March 2012 quarter resulting in iPhone revenues of approximately $19.2 billion. Apple will report well over $10 in EPS on the quarter—don’t worry I’ll get to my full 2012 estimates soon enough.

    Fiscal Q3 2012 iPhone Estimates (assuming September upgrade cycle)

    iPhone 5 unit sales and revenue will peak in fiscal Q3 as Apple will finally meet supply-demand parity on the iPhone—just in time for Apple to struggle with demand from the iPad 3. I expect sales to rise to over 31 million units on the quarter resulting in Apple posting nearly $20 billion in iPhone revenue. This will result in Apple reporting well over $10 in EPS on the quarter.

    Fiscal Q4 2012 iPhone Estimates (assuming September upgrade cycle)

    Since Apple would presumably be on a new upgrade cycle which results in a new iPhone introduced every September, Apple’s fiscal Q4 will tend to be Apple’s weakest quarter depending on when the iPhone is actually launched. Apple’s fiscal Q4 runs from July through the end of September. Thus, if Apple were to release it’s iPhone in early September rather than late September, then fiscal Q4 will tend to be on par with previous quarters.

     

    Yet, if Apple tends to upgrade the iPhone toward the end of September, then due to seasonality, iPhone sales will tend to suffer in the quarter as customers postpone purchase ahead of a new device. Conservatism demands that we assume the less favorable outcome on the quarter.

    Thus, I’m looking for iPhone sales to fall by about 3 million units in fiscal Q4 2012 as Apple prepares to introduce the iPhone 6. Revenue from the iPhone will be approximately $18 billion on the quarter. The charts below represent my iPhone estimates for Apple’s fiscal Q3 & Q4 2011 along with Apple’s FYE 2012.

     

    [ Edited: 27 May 2011 10:21 AM by Tetrachloride ]      
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    Posted: 27 May 2011 10:38 AM #27

    Andy takes on 2011 and 2012 iPad estimates.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/272181-zaky-2011-2012-ipad-sales-estimates?source=yahoo

         
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    Posted: 07 October 2011 12:45 PM #28

    4, 10, 11, 15, 17

    2012 could be fairly huge by any standard of the AFB.

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2012 12:43 PM #29

    Tetrachloride - 13 April 2011 09:50 PM

    1. Apple HDTV ( it could be this year if Steve says so)
    2. NFC (Near Field Communications)  which year, who knows
    3. iPad 3
    4. Mobile Me acceleration
    5. Thunderbolt market acceleration
    6. 4G
    7. WiMax
    8. more SSD Macs
    9. iPod Classic 500
    10. Apple Retail Oz lighting up China
    11. Tim Cook prominence is also brighter
    12. Apple makes some strategic purchases, sooner or later
    13. The center of gravity between Apple and content providers shifts.  Telecoms concerned.
    14. Business and governments continues shift to Apple products.  At least one US state joins Maine as a prime customer.
    15. BrazilNuts hosts a party in Rio
    16. Apple buys key distribution rights to The Hobbit
    17. Smaller Apple stores in the US to move or expand
    18. Music, Movie and Music Stores get a major facelift
    19. Trackpad prices fall
    20. Wireless recharging gets traction
    21. iOS flash drives go as high as 256G
    22. Kinect does not go unignored by Apple.
    23. iOS devices in cars
    24. By now, most of the tech world has realized it has underestimated what Apple is doing with its data centers.
    25. Some of Apple retail partners face cutoff if they don’t improve service. 

    Bonus:  Steve Ballmer forced to resign

    Well, how are my 2012 predictions holding up ?

    The worst ones:

    6. 4G—- not real soon
    7. WiMac—who knows
    8. iPod Classic 500—unlikely—possible end of life
    15. BrazilNuts—I’d like to go.  Prior commitments make this unlikely for me.
    16. it could happen
    18. this should happen but I’m not holding my breath

    Some things which are more true than I predicted.

    10. China
    11. Tim Cook
    12. strategic purchases
    13. center of gravity
    24. Apple data centers

         
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    Posted: 12 March 2012 01:38 AM #30

    Looking ahead for product releases.

    The tea leaves at MacRumor’s Buying Guide seem to indicate the next hardware releases will be iMacs, MacBook Air’s and Mac Pro’s.  Yes, the Mac Pro.  Imminent update ?  Once upon a time, the Mac of Macs.  Now, one of many Macs to best fit the customer. 

    Adding a new row:

    26. Siri and other key apps are updated a lot in data centers.  The iOS devices and downloaded apps won’t have to be updated so often.  Rephrasing: Apple has hired a lot of people and some Google mindshare goes down.