Chart: Apple v. Windows computer sales

  • Posted: 14 April 2011 06:10 PM

    First quarter PC forecast: Windows down 2%, Mac+iPad up 250%

    (EDITED: to fix original link)

    AUTHOR: Horace Dediu

    [ Edited: 15 April 2011 02:42 PM by FalKirk ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 14 April 2011 06:35 PM #1

    Of course iPads don’t count :wink:  So we need to adjust the chart to reflect the fact that the folks who shill the data aren’t getting paid by Apple.  They have backed themselves into a corner by saying the iPad is not a computer but the netbook is?  What are the differentiating features?  I hope it is not a hard keyboard, HDD and USB port, because I think it is a pretty lame distinction.  As far as any other metric, I think iPad 2 with the A5 will stand up to any light weight computing task and is a suitable substitute for many situations which are currently supported by a laptop or netbook.  I think it is safe to say the iPad is putting a hurt on the netbook makers and will continue to displace laptops for certain use cases where the tablet user interface out-weights the benefits of the laptops greater computing power and hard keyboard.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 14 April 2011 07:37 PM #2

    an early nomination for Financial Chart of the Year

         
  • Posted: 14 April 2011 08:14 PM #3

    I’ll second that.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 14 April 2011 08:20 PM #4

    pats - 14 April 2011 09:35 PM

    Of course iPads don’t count :wink:  So we need to adjust the chart to reflect the fact that the folks who shill the data aren’t getting paid by Apple.  They have backed themselves into a corner by saying the iPad is not a computer but the netbook is?  What are the differentiating features?

    OS: Netbooks can run the same applications that a laptop or desktop. iPads only iOS apps, not MacOSX.

    Signature

    Tightwad.

         
  • Posted: 14 April 2011 08:37 PM #5

    Yesterday I had a long conversation with a gentleman who installs high end residential sound systems. Last month he got an iPad . He did the class at the Tysons Corner Apple Store. He said he had not used his Dell laptop in the last two weeks and saw no need to use it again. He had transferred everything he needed to the iPad. This guy is a convert. He runs three to five jobs at a time and is impressed at how simple everything is to accomplish. I introduced him to this site and DT"s blog. He has replaced a PC with an iPad to manage his business.

    If the work gets done, who cares what’s under the hood.

         
  • Posted: 14 April 2011 08:43 PM #6

    awcabot - 14 April 2011 11:20 PM
    pats - 14 April 2011 09:35 PM

    Of course iPads don’t count :wink:  So we need to adjust the chart to reflect the fact that the folks who shill the data aren’t getting paid by Apple.  They have backed themselves into a corner by saying the iPad is not a computer but the netbook is?  What are the differentiating features?

    OS: Netbooks can run the same applications that a laptop or desktop. iPads only iOS apps, not MacOSX.

    Windows PCs don’t run Mac/OSX applications either.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 April 2011 03:59 AM #7

    OK, I’ll be a contrarian here and say that—despite enormous respect and utter devotion to Horace (I read every Asymco post)—this chart is misleading and does not steer debate in a useful manner. It’s probably the first time I think that of his charts.

    Adding up growth percentages of a 25-year old product with a huge established user base (Mac) with growth of a 1-year old device of a comparatively small installed user base is just mathematically inconsistent. After all, we always complain whenever Android fanboys use growth against Apple even though iOS still leads in installed base numbers. If Horace showed growth of total installed units, the chart would make much more sense - and fit on the screen better. Or even calculate growth with total units in the denominator. (e.g. (4.1m+7.3m)/(60m+8m) = 16% last quarter - using 60m Macs as estimated installed base).

    I chuckled at PED calling it a giraffe however smile

         
  • Posted: 15 April 2011 04:55 AM #8

    This discussion has a history.

    Todays question is whether or not an iPad is a ” real ” computer.  It’s not relevant, categorizing new devices with old pigeon holes is missing the point, and that point is progress. Stop counting buggy whips and go out for a ride. The fresh air will do you good.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 April 2011 06:13 AM #9

    capablanca - 14 April 2011 11:43 PM
    awcabot - 14 April 2011 11:20 PM
    pats - 14 April 2011 09:35 PM

    Of course iPads don’t count :wink:  So we need to adjust the chart to reflect the fact that the folks who shill the data aren’t getting paid by Apple.  They have backed themselves into a corner by saying the iPad is not a computer but the netbook is?  What are the differentiating features?

    OS: Netbooks can run the same applications that a laptop or desktop. iPads only iOS apps, not MacOSX.

    Windows PCs don’t run Mac/OSX applications either.

    Which is why they are in different categories, and why iPads should be counted separately from Macs.

    Signature

    Tightwad.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 April 2011 08:56 AM #10

    Roman - 15 April 2011 06:59 AM

    OK, I’ll be a contrarian here and say that—despite enormous respect and utter devotion to Horace (I read every Asymco post)—this chart is misleading and does not steer debate in a useful manner. It’s probably the first time I think that of his charts.

    Adding up growth percentages of a 25-year old product with a huge established user base (Mac) with growth of a 1-year old device of a comparatively small installed user base is just mathematically inconsistent. After all, we always complain whenever Android fanboys use growth against Apple even though iOS still leads in installed base numbers. If Horace showed growth of total installed units, the chart would make much more sense - and fit on the screen better. Or even calculate growth with total units in the denominator. (e.g. (4.1m+7.3m)/(60m+8m) = 16% last quarter - using 60m Macs as estimated installed base).

    I chuckled at PED calling it a giraffe however smile

    Whereas we could benefit from an installed base growth analysis, Installed base numbers are not a luxury we possess for all the platforms.

    The point of the chart is to focus on growth of particular platforms relative to each other. Unforeseen growth is what is rewarded (installed base not so much) so it’s what should be used to weigh investment opportunities. The conclusion is that Apple’s computer business is exploding while Microsoft’s is imploding. Also the narrative uses the chart to defend the post-PC thesis of substitutability of the iPad.

    Signature

    Read more at: Asymco Blog

         
  • Posted: 15 April 2011 11:50 AM #11

    awcabot - 14 April 2011 11:20 PM
    pats - 14 April 2011 09:35 PM

    Of course iPads don’t count :wink:  So we need to adjust the chart to reflect the fact that the folks who shill the data aren’t getting paid by Apple.  They have backed themselves into a corner by saying the iPad is not a computer but the netbook is?  What are the differentiating features?

    OS: Netbooks can run the same applications that a laptop or desktop. iPads only iOS apps, not MacOSX.

    Not entirely true. Apple has iPad versions of iMovie, Garageband, Keynote, Numbers, and Pages. Bento and OmniGraffle are also available. These have been customized for the smaller screen as well as the ability to use touch controls, something that’s also coming to OSX. iOS is OSX; just a reduced set because everything in OSX isn’t required. I need to check my Xcode but I believe I can write software and export it for whichever platform I want. Apple has announced OSX Lion and demonstrated compatible functions between iOS and OSX.

    Most netbooks run a subset of Windows or Linux; just enough to allow them to turn on. Most netbooks run applications off the net, if they have a good connection and can wait to download them. Netbook’s failures have shown that people really want all their software and applications on their computer instead of relying on access to the network to get them.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:28 PM #12

    asymco - 15 April 2011 11:56 AM

    Whereas we could benefit from an installed base growth analysis, Installed base numbers are not a luxury we possess for all the platforms.

    The point of the chart is to focus on growth of particular platforms relative to each other. Unforeseen growth is what is rewarded (installed base not so much) so it’s what should be used to weigh investment opportunities. The conclusion is that Apple’s computer business is exploding while Microsoft’s is imploding. Also the narrative uses the chart to defend the post-PC thesis of substitutability of the iPad.

    Horace, I think your conclusions are right, and even the method of comparing growth amongst a dying platform and a growing one (that’s taking its space) is ok, so long as you used iPad growth rates separately from Mac. I only had a problem with that specific method.

    Using sample (not real) numbers, to me comparing 7m/8m=87.5% quarterly iPad growth with 4m/60m=6.6% Mac growth makes sense. The combined growth (7m+4m)/(8m+60m)=16.2% makes sense. But just adding growth *rates* as in 87.5%+6.6%=94.1% does not make sense. That particular addition is what to me looked like some charts and data manipulation we often see from the Android camp.

    It’s fine at the end of the day, please keep it as you make some good points there countering the stale methods of Gartner and IDC that are failing to see market substitution. And, besides, it’s a giraffe smile

    Thank you for your great research as always.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:48 PM #13

    As soon as all of the back-patting comes to an end, somebody should overlay all of the Android and netbook devices so as to show a better comparison.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 April 2011 01:53 PM #14

    Eric Landstrom - 15 April 2011 04:48 PM

    As soon as all of the back-patting comes to an end, somebody should overlay all of the Android and netbook devices so as to show a better comparison.

    Oh, so we lump ONE line, against the 100+ highly fragmented others and compare them as if they were produced by ONE manufacturing firm?

    Gee, THAT seems like a wonderful way to goose the loser ANDROID. I wonder if Chevy could outsell Ford, if Chevvies were buy one get one free, or worse, TOTALLY FREE verses paying full sticker for the Fords?

    Yeah, THAT is what capitalism is all about, spend hundreds of millions to develop a product then give it away to every two bit Chinese sweatshop to use to undersell HONEST capitalism.

    Eric, my man, have you gone off your rocker, are you going to start supporting Comrade Hussein next?

    Signature

    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Posted: 15 April 2011 02:45 PM #15

    My apologies to all and particuarly to Horace Dediu. It had been my intention to link Horace’s graph back to his original article on ASYMCO. I inadvertantly copied an erroneous link instead.

    I’ve corrected the original link and I invite you all to see Horace’s original work which is located here.