Google VS Apple

  • Posted: 29 July 2012 02:23 PM #136

    An interesting article by Bryan Appleyard, published in the Sunday Times today:

    http://www.bryanappleyard.com/in-the-beginning-was-google/

         
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    Posted: 07 August 2012 11:46 AM #137

    Another article speculating on which search engine should be for Apple.

    Guess.  Yahoo/Bing again.  Forbes: Eric Jackson and TechCrunch

    I do not find Yahoo or Bing compelling, but I will give another shot for a while.

    That said, Google is ripe for a new search engine competitor.

    Given what we know about Apple’s many hardware prototypes, I’d be surprised if Apple does not have some mini-search engine prototypes.

         
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    Posted: 08 August 2012 05:59 PM #138

    This would be an excellent reason to dump Google Search and Gmail

    http://allthingsd.com/20120808/google-adds-personal-gmail-results-into-search/?mod=e2tw

    Liz Gannes…

    Google Adds Personal Gmail Results Into Search
    AUGUST 8, 2012 AT 10:16 AM


    In a major move to integrate personal search and Web search, Google is adding some users? Gmail into their search results as a ?limited field trial,? it said today.

    So when participating users search for ?Amazon,? information from their own recent purchase confirmation emails will appear on the right rail. Or, a user could type ?my flights? as a search query, and see ? directly at the top of their search results ? itineraries drawn from their flight confirmation emails.

         
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    Posted: 09 August 2012 01:31 PM #139

    Ironically, this could mean that the “Google Now” feature will be on more iOS devices than Android devices. Very few Android devices will have Jelly Bean installed anytime soon, while a huge percentage of Apple devices will soon be upgraded to iOS 6. The question is how many iOS users will actually download & use the Google app. I’ll give it a try, but Bing has been working fine for me.

    Google’s search app for iOS is about to become more Siri-like…As noted by our friends at the Verge, the feature is “pretty much identical” to what’s available in Android 4.1 (Jelly Bean)...

    But why would an iOS user want to use Google’s app to search by voice over something like Siri? Well for one, Siri still only works on the iPhone 4S…If you own any other iOS device?I’m still hanging onto my trusty iPhone 4?you can’t make use of Siri, but you will be able to make use of Google’s search.

    http://arstechnica.com/apple/2012/08/googles-ios-search-app-to-gain-enhanced-voice-search/

         
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    Posted: 09 August 2012 09:19 PM #140

    Apple maps in iOS 6 show more detail compared to Google maps.  w/video

    http://www.cultofmac.com/183742/apples-3d-maps-in-ios-6-are-insanely-detailed-when-compared-with-googles-video/

    Signature

    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 09:04 AM #141

    First there was last week’s IDC report:

    Google’s Android surged to a whopping 68% share of the global smartphone market last quarter. That’s four times the 17% market share held by Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), according to a Wednesday report from research firm IDC.

    Then there is this morning’s Gartner report:

    By operating system, Google’s Android extended its lead with 64 percent market share compared with 43 percent a year earlier, while Apple iOS held a 19 percent share, little changed from a year earlier.

    Then there are people like Tomi Ahonen (who you may or may not like, but he was written up in Forbes for his influence in the mobile sector) who believes:

    So that is what was on my mind today, looking at the smartphone battles. I also think we are nearing the end of bothering to monitor this part of mobile, the end-game is pretty well clear, Samsung and Google have run away with the dominating positions. Apple iPhone has secured a safe second place. The rest is fought by surprisingly weak entrants to the third place, considering how strong some of them were as recently as a year to 18 months ago (HTC, RIM, Nokia, Microsoft, LG etc).

    And of course there was the recent interview with Horace and Gene Munster (who you also may or may not like - I do), where Gene was asked what the greatest threat to Apple is and his one-word reply was simply, “Android.”

    So while we at AFB apparently do not believe that Android poses any big threat to Apple, my guess is that Apple itself sees it as a HUGE threat. The trial is important, but it is not going to stop Samsung, especially worldwide. My guess is that Apple is soon going to do something pretty drastic in terms of changing its whole strategy towards Android.

    [ Edited: 14 August 2012 09:12 AM by Centsless ]      
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 10:38 AM #142

    Centsless - 14 August 2012 12:04 PM

    So while we at AFB apparently do not believe that Android poses any big threat to Apple, my guess is that Apple itself sees it as a HUGE threat. The trial is important, but it is not going to stop Samsung, especially worldwide. My guess is that Apple is soon going to do something pretty drastic in terms of changing its whole strategy towards Android.

    Is there an Android-iOS market-share differential that would begin to undermine the profitability of iOS? Through the early 1990s, Macs were superior to Wintel PCs, yet the economics of the product didn’t work and Apple failed.

    So the current differential is 4:1. Does the risk for iOS get more serious at say 6:1?

    1. What disadvantages does iOS face with small market share?
    2. What factors might insulate iOS despite small market share? E.g., capturing the high end.
    3. To what extent do we care about platform market shares vs manufacturer market shares? Both are relevant, but maybe one is more so.
    4. To what extent might the iPad-mini and hypothetical iPhone-mini address these problems?
    5. Are there other relevant questions?

    Just thinking out loud.

    [ Edited: 14 August 2012 10:42 AM by gliderplane ]      
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 10:45 AM #143

    An interesting Apple study saying some customers bought Android devices to remain current of their carrier.

    http://www.cultofmac.com/184402/apple-study-claims-that-us-consumers-bought-android-devices-to-remain-with-current-carrier/

    Signature

    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 11:49 AM #144

    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 01:38 PM

    Is there an Android-iOS market-share differential that would begin to undermine the profitability of iOS? Through the early 1990s, Macs were superior to Wintel PCs, yet the economics of the product didn’t work and Apple failed.

    So the current differential is 4:1. Does the risk for iOS get more serious at say 6:1?

    1. What disadvantages does iOS face with small market share?
    2. What factors might insulate iOS despite small market share? E.g., capturing the high end.
    3. To what extent do we care about platform market shares vs manufacturer market shares? Both are relevant, but maybe one is more so.
    4. To what extent might the iPad-mini and hypothetical iPhone-mini address these problems?
    5. Are there other relevant questions?

     

    Thanks for taking an open-minded approach, gliderplane.

    Let’s just consider the extreme case for a moment. Let’s assume (hypothetically) that Android gets 95% market share and IOS 5%. I think the prevailing view at AFB would be that this is okay so long as Apple is making all the profits and the developers are all writing first for IOS because that is where they are making their profits. I actually share this view and I am not sure if that is because I have become indoctrinated or the view is truly correct.

    But the 95% figure does give me pause. It’s too much potential power to cede to the enemy and is too reminiscent of the PC situation. The effects are too unpredictable. For instance, what happens when that 95% of people inevitably become wealthier and do start to buy apps? I think the prevailing view here would be that then they would migrate to IOS because of its superior performance. And there is truth to that view and some people certainly would migrate, but most I think would be used to Android and already invested (in whatever small way) in that ecosystem and would stay. Also by then Android might be a little better than it is now, as it does seem to be slowly improving.

    So that 95% makes me nervous, even if I can’t put my finger on exactly why. I would say 90% and 80% share for Android also make me nervous. But somehow somewhere around 70% for Android, 30% for IOS - that I can live with. That is close to where Android is now, but for IOS to get there, it will need to increase from its current 20%. I think the new iPhone will certainly help in this regard, but may not be enough so Apple (perhaps) will take additional steps.

    [ Edited: 14 August 2012 11:53 AM by Centsless ]      
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 11:54 AM #145

    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 01:38 PM

    Is there an Android-iOS market-share differential that would begin to undermine the profitability of iOS?

    It’s a mistake to focus too much on unit market share. One $100 Android device does not equate to one $600 iOS device. Devices with such a large price discrepancy provide very different levels of profit for the manufacturers and functionality for the users.

    Any discussion of Android vs iOS must include both smartphones and tablets. It must also include profit-share, usage-share, content-share and developer mind-share. Overall, iOS is in a much stronger position and Apple is doing all the right things in order to strengthen that position.

    Apple will continue to lead the mobile computing market. It is aware of what the competition is doing, but has never and will not react to their products or strategies.

    I’m not worried about my AAPL investment. I force myself to read negative “analyses”, but 90% are pure FUD. I don’t see anything slowing Apple down in the next two years.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 12:09 PM #146

    Centsless - 14 August 2012 02:49 PM
    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 01:38 PM

    Is there an Android-iOS market-share differential that would begin to undermine the profitability of iOS? Through the early 1990s, Macs were superior to Wintel PCs, yet the economics of the product didn’t work and Apple failed.

    So the current differential is 4:1. Does the risk for iOS get more serious at say 6:1?

    1. What disadvantages does iOS face with small market share?
    2. What factors might insulate iOS despite small market share? E.g., capturing the high end.
    3. To what extent do we care about platform market shares vs manufacturer market shares? Both are relevant, but maybe one is more so.
    4. To what extent might the iPad-mini and hypothetical iPhone-mini address these problems?
    5. Are there other relevant questions?

     

    Thanks for taking an open-minded approach, gliderplane.

    Let’s just consider the extreme case for a moment. Let’s assume (hypothetically) that Android gets 95% market share and IOS 5%. I think the prevailing view at AFB would be that this is okay so long as Apple is making all the profits and the developers are all writing first for IOS because that is where they are making their profits. I actually share this view and I am not sure if that is because I have become indoctrinated or the view is truly correct.

    But the 95% figure does give me pause. It’s too much potential power to cede to the enemy and is too reminiscent of the PC situation. The effects are too unpredictable. For instance, what happens when that 95% of people inevitably become wealthier and do start to buy apps? I think the prevailing view here would be that then they would migrate to IOS because of its superior performance. And there is truth to that view and some people certainly would migrate, but most I think would be used to Android and already invested (in whatever small way) in that ecosystem and would stay. Also by then Android might be a little better than it is now, as it does seem to be slowly improving.

    So that 95% makes me nervous, even if I can’t put my finger on exactly why. I would say 90% and 80% share for Android also make me nervous. But somehow somewhere around 70% for Android, 30% for IOS - that I can live with. That is close to where Android is now, but for IOS to get there, it will need to increase from its current 20%. I think the new iPhone will certainly help in this regard, but may not be enough so Apple (perhaps) will take additional steps.

    rolleyes  Let’s also assume that this charade is getting silly.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 12:10 PM #147

    Centsless - 14 August 2012 02:49 PM

    Let’s assume (hypothetically) that Android gets 95% market share and IOS 5%...But the 95% figure does give me pause. It’s too much potential power to cede to the enemy and is too reminiscent of the PC situation.

    Let’s take a quick look at “the PC situation”. IBM, Compaq, Gateway and many others are out of that business. HP tried to get out. Dell is hanging by a thread. Only Microsoft still reaps healthy profits from Windows, but Apple actually makes just as much profit from Macs.

    BTW, your hypothetical is absurd.

    But somehow somewhere around 70% for Android, 30% for IOS - that I can live with. That is close to where Android is now, but for IOS to get there, it will need to increase from its current 20%.

    Why are you ignoring the 70% iOS market share in the tablet space? And no discussion of the iPod touch? That’s over 20 million $199 devices per year. Do you think Google will come anywhere close to selling that many $199 Nexus 7s?

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 12:14 PM #148

    As a developer, I will bring my software first to the platform(s) with the greatest potential return.  Right now, that is iOS hands-down (the purchasing behavior of iOS users more than makes up for the difference in smartphone share). However, in the scenario where Android has 95% of the market, that would no longer be the case.

    My fear would be that developer support would start to shift dramatically in favor of Android, creating a virtuous cycle for Android adoption.  Personally, I would like to see iOS continue hold at least a quarter or a third of the market, even at slightly lower margins if necessary.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 12:18 PM #149

    Drew Bear - 14 August 2012 02:54 PM
    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 01:38 PM

    Is there an Android-iOS market-share differential that would begin to undermine the profitability of iOS?

    It’s a mistake to focus too much on unit market share.

    Why? Market share is obviously not the only factor, but it may have important implications for the economics of Apple’s business.

    One $100 Android device does not equate to one $600 iOS device. Devices with such a large price discrepancy provide very different levels of profit for the manufacturers and functionality for the users.

    Clearly. But thinking about market shares may help to understand where the mobile device industry will be next year or in three years. And I’m not sure where the $100 comes from. Aren’t we worried about the $300-500 Android devices?

    Any discussion of Android vs iOS must include both smartphones and tablets. It must also include profit-share, usage-share, content-share and developer mind-share. Overall, iOS is in a much stronger position and Apple is doing all the right things in order to strengthen that position.

    That’s right. But “usage-share, content-share and developer mind-share” may be precisely why market share is so important. Because if Android has much larger market share, developers and content providers may switch to work with Android first rather than iOS.

    Apple will continue to lead the mobile computing market. It is aware of what the competition is doing, but has never and will not react to their products or strategies.

    That’s illogical. As an investor, Apple would set itself up for a major class-action lawsuit if it never and would never react to competitors. Clearly, much of Apple’s strategy is related to competitors’ behavior. A major part of every Apple product is designed with competitors in mind: iPod diversification to capture every price point, iCloud to lock-in users, the lawsuit against Samsung to maintain product differentiation, locking up supply of important inputs to disadvantage rivals, the increase in iPhone 5 screen size, and so on.

    I’m not worried about my AAPL investment. I force myself to read negative “analyses”, but 90% are pure FUD. I don’t see anything slowing Apple down in the next two years.

    I’m with you that Apple’s prospects continue to look promising. I also agree that 90% of negative analyses are FUD. However, just because there’s a lot of bad analyses doesn’t mean that risks don’t exist.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 12:31 PM #150

    Lstream - 14 August 2012 03:09 PM

    rolleyes  Let’s also assume that this charade is getting silly.

    What charade are you referring to? My feeling is that there isn’t enough analysis on this board that thinks more deeply about the risks. The point of participation here isn’t to self-congratulate each other about how smart we are for having discovered AAPL.