Google VS Apple

  • Posted: 14 August 2012 12:59 PM #151

    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 03:31 PM
    Lstream - 14 August 2012 03:09 PM

    rolleyes  Let’s also assume that this charade is getting silly.

    What charade are you referring to? My feeling is that there isn’t enough analysis on this board that thinks more deeply about the risks. The point of participation here isn’t to self-congratulate each other about how smart we are for having discovered AAPL.

    Classic stage 1 troll behaviour, by you and your double:

    1. Ridiculous “assumptions” designed to provoke a reaction.  Like Android growing activations by 8x or 10x, when the whole market grew by about 50% last year.

    2. Feigned ignorance when other posters point to real sources of data designed to refute your initial wild ass assumptions.  Just mindless repetition of the same drivel over and over again.

    3. Ridiculous answers to legit questions like what this holy grail iPhone mini is supposed to look like.

    4. Inability to even understand your own so called sources of data like that Gartner study.  Where it is clear that market share was taken from Symbian/RIM and not iOS.  Extrapolating that study to crank up the FUD surrounding Apple market.  That is the study that shows 50% market growth in case you didn’t notice.

    5. Trotting out ridiculous analogies like Acura/Honda to somehow make the point that Apple needs greater scale, when they already are at the top of the pile on scale and purchasing power.

    I am all for analysis, but claiming that your posts provide analysis is just laughable. 

    Clear enough for you now?

    Apologies to iPad and others, but this noise pollution is real annoying.

    [ Edited: 14 August 2012 01:06 PM by Lstream ]      
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 01:03 PM #152

    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 01:38 PM

    Is there an Android-iOS market-share differential that would begin to undermine the profitability of iOS? Through the early 1990s, Macs were superior to Wintel PCs, yet the economics of the product didn’t work and Apple failed.

    So the current differential is 4:1. Does the risk for iOS get more serious at say 6:1?

    1. What disadvantages does iOS face with small market share?
    2. What factors might insulate iOS despite small market share? E.g., capturing the high end.
    3. To what extent do we care about platform market shares vs manufacturer market shares? Both are relevant, but maybe one is more so.
    4. To what extent might the iPad-mini and hypothetical iPhone-mini address these problems?
    5. Are there other relevant questions?

    Just thinking out loud.

    In terms of insulation, the primary differences between Android and Apple

    1. System security.  The practical chances of me doing financial transactions on Android are zero.  Lightning bolts have a better chance.

    2. Ecosystem.  My app and music purchases are Apple.  There is one and only one document that I use with Google.  My future cloud may be with Apple.  But it wont be with Google, in either documents, media or apps.

    3. Corporate integrity.  In a few months, I may be completely divorced from Google.  No gmail, no search, nothing.

    4. An iPad mini would add another layer of cement for me.  With hundreds of millions of would-be customers out there, this may be their first Apple purchase.

    5. I do care about market share.  The more market share, the more chances that Apple constructs new stores to build market share.  That’s the way Apple is.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 01:05 PM #153

    Deleted

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 01:09 PM #154

    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 03:31 PM
    Lstream - 14 August 2012 03:09 PM

    rolleyes  Let’s also assume that this charade is getting silly.

    What charade are you referring to? My feeling is that there isn’t enough analysis on this board that thinks more deeply about the risks. The point of participation here isn’t to self-congratulate each other about how smart we are for having discovered AAPL.

    When you start awarding Android 95% market share as your basis for logically discussion you basically are operating similar to the German propaganda machine.  Make a statement as if it is fact and then use that fact to create your vision of the future.  Android is not a homogenous market.  The majority of the manufacturers delivering handsets based on Android have very little profit to show for their effort so their R&D for future products is non existent.  Apple is doing extremely well with iOS in the developed markets and has not really put much effort into selling to the rest of the emerging market other then China.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 01:11 PM #155

    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 03:18 PM

    However, just because there’s a lot of bad analyses doesn’t mean that risks don’t exist.

    I agree. But let’s stick to real risks rather than absurd hypothetical scenarios. It is unrealistic and a waste of energy to worry about the possibility of 95% Android market share. All your “what-ifs” cascade from that single premise.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 01:15 PM #156

    Lstream - 14 August 2012 03:59 PM
    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 03:31 PM
    Lstream - 14 August 2012 03:09 PM

    rolleyes  Let’s also assume that this charade is getting silly.

    What charade are you referring to? My feeling is that there isn’t enough analysis on this board that thinks more deeply about the risks. The point of participation here isn’t to self-congratulate each other about how smart we are for having discovered AAPL.

    Classic stage 1 troll behaviour, by you and your double:

    1. Ridiculous “assumptions” designed to provoke a reaction.  Like Android growing activations by 8x or 10x, when the whole market grew by about 50% last year.

    2. Feigned ignorance when other posters point to real sources of data designed to refute your initial wild ass assumptions.  Just mindless repetition of the same drivel over and over again.

    3. Ridiculous answers to legit questions like what this holy grail iPhone mine is supposed to look like.

    4. Inability to even understand your own so called sources of data like that Gartner study.  Where it is clear that market share was taken from Symbian and not iOS.  Extrapolating that study to crank up the FUD surrounding Apple market.  That is the study that shows 50% market growth in case you didn’t notice.

    5. Trotting out ridiculous analogies like Acura/Honda to somehow make the point that Apple needs greater scale, when they already are at the top of the pile on scale and purchasing power.

    I am all for analysis, but claiming that your posts provide analysis is just laughable. 

    Clear enough for you now?

    Apologies to iPad and others, but this noise pollution is real annoying.

    Sorry you feel this way. I’m not sure what would give you the impression I’m a troll, whatever that means. If you have meaningful input into our conversation, I’m very interested to hear it. You input would be interesting to me given your stated expertise. I’m participating on this board to learn.

    I only stated the Acura/Honda analogy because you didn’t seem to be considering the basic economics of the situation. Apparently I was wrong, so sorry to have thought that.

    I’m also sorry I didn’t give you a precise answer about what an iPhone mini would look like. I really don’t know.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 01:18 PM #157

    Drew Bear - 14 August 2012 04:11 PM
    gliderplane - 14 August 2012 03:18 PM

    However, just because there’s a lot of bad analyses doesn’t mean that risks don’t exist.

    I agree. But let’s stick to real risks rather than absurd hypothetical scenarios. It is unrealistic and a waste of energy to worry about the possibility of 95% Android market share. All your “what-ifs” cascade from that single premise.

    I believe Centsless was just doing a thought experiment. Limiting cases might be a helpful starting place to understand what happens in between. But I see your point. Thanks for your input.

    [ Edited: 14 August 2012 01:23 PM by gliderplane ]      
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 01:22 PM #158

    Hey - if you stop playing in the land of the absurd, then I am sure we can be buds.  You will note from other posters that I am not the only one feeling this way.

    Regarding the iPhone mini, of course you don’t know what it would be.  With that being the case, can you not see how silly it looks to be making the case that Apple needs one?

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 01:28 PM #159

    Lstream - 14 August 2012 04:22 PM

    Hey - if you stop playing in the land of the absurd, then I am sure we can be buds.  You will note from other posters that I am not the only one feeling this way.

    Regarding the iPhone mini, of course you don’t know what it would be.  With that being the case, can you not see how silly it looks to be making the case that Apple needs one?

    I don’t think the actual form factor of an iPhone mini is relevant to whether an iPhone mini should be created. What we need to know is that it would be a lower functionality device at a lower cost and price, and it hopefully designed with the target segment in mind rather than being a hold over from several years ago (e.g., 3GS).

    To me the question is whether this hypothetical device would be helpful to Apple cost structure, market position, and adoption in markets that Apple currently doesn’t serve effectively.

    I’d like to avoid an argument. I’m just trying to clarify point of view. I don’t think it’s a dumb question.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 01:33 PM #160

    Hypotheticals are required.  That’s where new devices come from.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 01:49 PM #161

    Jordan D - 14 August 2012 03:14 PM

    As a developer, I will bring my software first to the platform(s) with the greatest potential return.  Right now, that is iOS hands-down (the purchasing behavior of iOS users more than makes up for the difference in smartphone share). However, in the scenario where Android has 95% of the market, that would no longer be the case.

    My fear would be that developer support would start to shift dramatically in favor of Android, creating a virtuous cycle for Android adoption.  Personally, I would like to see iOS continue hold at least a quarter or a third of the market, even at slightly lower margins if necessary.

    Exactly.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2012 02:04 PM #162

    Centsless - 14 August 2012 04:49 PM
    Jordan D - 14 August 2012 03:14 PM

    As a developer, I will bring my software first to the platform(s) with the greatest potential return.  Right now, that is iOS hands-down (the purchasing behavior of iOS users more than makes up for the difference in smartphone share). However, in the scenario where Android has 95% of the market, that would no longer be the case.

    My fear would be that developer support would start to shift dramatically in favor of Android, creating a virtuous cycle for Android adoption.  Personally, I would like to see iOS continue hold at least a quarter or a third of the market, even at slightly lower margins if necessary.

    Exactly.

    So let me understand your “exactly” point. Android currently has 68% of the smartphone market and Jordan says he develops for iOS first.  I guess at some percentage the market share of Android will impact iOS, but I think your leap of faith that Android will just continue to grow is a pipe dream and in the $100 device market the OS really doesn’t matter.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 02:21 PM #163

    gliderplane - 13 August 2012 08:49 PM

    Apple still seems like a great investment, but Android is a real threat. It becomes much harder for Apple to compete against rivals (Android device makers) who shoot for <10% gross margins when Apple’s business model and stock price depend on 50% phone margins. Economies of scale in production and Apple’s nice design help only so much, especially with attracting new consumer segments. As Horace might say, it’s asymmetric.

    I’m still optimistic about Apple, but I’m keeping an eye out for early signs of real problems. The continuing growth of Android and the disappointing Q3 Apple results has made me reassess whether Apple is a sure thing.

    If problems with Apple arise, I expect them to appear first in non-US markets, perhaps China, but maybe also parts of Europe and elsewhere. I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s a real risk.

    I am pulling this from the other thread, gliderplane, because I think you are right on. Let me see if I understand.

    Two points in Apple’s favor I think are 1) IOS should prevail over Android in the US in the short term anyway, perhaps by a fair amount. And that means US enterprise will be there and probably then world enterprise will follow US. So that is good. And 2) I think if they can get that mini tablet established worldwide it will help with the erosion. And then the excellent ecosystem, China Mobile, iTV and pipeline. Plus other things I can’t think of now. So profits should continue to roll in for quite some time.

    But, yeah, long term Android will get cheaper and better. Those Chinese and Indian manufacturers are going to get cranked up. Samsung is good, Google and Samsung together are very good. And, you are right, it is going to show up in Europe and other countries first. Eventually either Apple’s market share or margins or both are going to have to take a hit. But hopefully that time isn’t now. Is that along the lines of what you are thinking?

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 02:40 PM #164

    pats - 14 August 2012 05:04 PM
    Centsless - 14 August 2012 04:49 PM
    Jordan D - 14 August 2012 03:14 PM

    As a developer, I will bring my software first to the platform(s) with the greatest potential return.  Right now, that is iOS hands-down (the purchasing behavior of iOS users more than makes up for the difference in smartphone share). However, in the scenario where Android has 95% of the market, that would no longer be the case.

    My fear would be that developer support would start to shift dramatically in favor of Android, creating a virtuous cycle for Android adoption.  Personally, I would like to see iOS continue hold at least a quarter or a third of the market, even at slightly lower margins if necessary.

    Exactly.

    So let me understand your “exactly” point. Android currently has 68% of the smartphone market and Jordan says he develops for iOS first.  I guess at some percentage the market share of Android will impact iOS, but I think your leap of faith that Android will just continue to grow is a pipe dream and in the $100 device market the OS really doesn’t matter.

    You do understand correctly, pats. I do think at some percentage the market share of Android will impact IOS and that was the point of my 95% hypothetical thought experiment, to find out exactly what that percentage is. In that post I concluded (or guessed - I mean, who knows?) that it would have an impact at not only 95% but also at 90% and 80%. Then I said that I thought Apple would be safe at 70% or below. That was the point of the post.

    So now whether Android will continue to grow beyond its current 68% or whatever is beyond my knowing and could well be a pipe dream, as you say. But I think there is a good probability that it does happen (they have been growing by leaps and bounds up to now) so I would like to be prepared for it. But you may be right. It may never happen.

    As for the OS in the $100 market, I agree with you that right now it probably does not matter a whole lot. But I think as $100 phones get better and better in the future, it will matter.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 02:40 PM #165

    Centsless - 14 August 2012 05:21 PM
    gliderplane - 13 August 2012 08:49 PM

    Apple still seems like a great investment, but Android is a real threat. It becomes much harder for Apple to compete against rivals (Android device makers) who shoot for <10% gross margins when Apple’s business model and stock price depend on 50% phone margins. Economies of scale in production and Apple’s nice design help only so much, especially with attracting new consumer segments. As Horace might say, it’s asymmetric.

    I’m still optimistic about Apple, but I’m keeping an eye out for early signs of real problems. The continuing growth of Android and the disappointing Q3 Apple results has made me reassess whether Apple is a sure thing.

    If problems with Apple arise, I expect them to appear first in non-US markets, perhaps China, but maybe also parts of Europe and elsewhere. I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s a real risk.

    I am pulling this from the other thread, gliderplane, because I think you are right on. Let me see if I understand.

    Two points in Apple’s favor I think are 1) IOS should prevail over Android in the US in the short term anyway, perhaps by a fair amount. And that means US enterprise will be there and probably then world enterprise will follow US. So that is good. And 2) I think if they can get that mini tablet established worldwide it will help with the erosion. And then the excellent ecosystem, China Mobile, iTV and pipeline. Plus other things I can’t think of now. So profits should continue to roll in for quite some time.

    But, yeah, long term Android will get cheaper and better. Those Chinese and Indian manufacturers are going to get cranked up. Samsung is good, Google and Samsung together are very good. And, you are right, it is going to show up in Europe and other countries first. Eventually either Apple’s market share or margins or both are going to have to take a hit. But hopefully that time isn’t now. Is that along the lines of what you are thinking?

    That’s right. As competitors catch Apple on quality, Apple might become an increasingly inferior value to customers, the way the Mac became vs Wintel in the 1990s.

    These risks won’t necessarily be realized. If Apple can lock-in a sufficient number of users to its platform (e.g., via iCloud) the way Wintel did, then we’re golden. If Apple can stay sufficiently ahead on introducing new and important features (e.g., haptic technology), that would also help. If Apple gets a monopoly over key inputs or functions in its products, such as Yelp, Facebook, and the new fingerprint reader technology, that would help. I’m sure there are other ways Apple can help secure its long-term position.

    I can see Apple continuing to do well for some time in the N American market via these advantages. I’m less sure about China and elsewhere, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Apple figures out a way to address these threats. It just seems hard to forecast.