AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 20 April 2011 10:02 PM

    AAPL finished New York trading at $342.41 and vaulted to $353.02 in AH trading following the release of March quarter results. Will the rally gain momentum in early New York trading on Thursday?

    [ Edited: 22 April 2011 12:32 AM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 20 April 2011 10:05 PM #1

    For those who missed the call and would rather read than listen:


    http://www.morningstar.com/earn-0/earnings—24808561-apple-inc-q2-2011.aspx.shtml?t1=1303347839

    [ Edited: 20 April 2011 10:21 PM by Prazan ]      
  • Posted: 20 April 2011 10:24 PM #2

    Prazen:

    Thank you.

    This may be a better link for the call transcript.

         
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    Posted: 20 April 2011 10:37 PM #3

    We’re on the way up. 

    Bumpiness is always to be expected.  But soon, people will see AAPL’s ttm P/E of 17.  As hard as AAPL got pounded, AAPL’s lowest P/E, intraday, was about 17.9 when FUD and anti-AAPL forces were at their peak.  We now have cheaper valuation on improving sentiment and ever greater fortunes ahead. 

    Also, analysts’ $23 EPS for FY 2011 estimates are looking awfully stupid right now.  Kinda like a straw man in the path of a locomotive.  Apple should crush $23 in ttm EPS with four months to spare.  Analysts don’t have much of a choice but to revise upward.

    The smart money should follow before too long.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2011 10:56 PM #4

    Mav - 21 April 2011 01:37 AM

    We’re on the way up. 

    Bumpiness is always to be expected.  But soon, people will see AAPL’s ttm P/E of 17.  As hard as AAPL got pounded, AAPL’s lowest P/E, intraday, was about 17.9 when FUD and anti-AAPL forces were at their peak.  We now have cheaper valuation on improving sentiment and ever greater fortunes ahead. 

    Also, analysts’ $23 EPS for FY 2011 estimates are looking awfully stupid right now.  Kinda like a straw man in the path of a locomotive.  Apple should crush $23 in ttm EPS with four months to spare.  Analysts don’t have much of a choice but to revise upward.

    The smart money should follow before too long.

    if you think that’s bad, check out the FY 2012 estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop

         
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    Posted: 20 April 2011 11:01 PM #5

    Mav - 21 April 2011 01:37 AM

    We’re on the way up. 

    Bumpiness is always to be expected.  But soon, people will see AAPL’s ttm P/E of 17.  As hard as AAPL got pounded, AAPL’s lowest P/E, intraday, was about 17.9 when FUD and anti-AAPL forces were at their peak.  We now have cheaper valuation on improving sentiment and ever greater fortunes ahead. 

    Also, analysts’ $23 EPS for FY 2011 estimates are looking awfully stupid right now.  Kinda like a straw man in the path of a locomotive.  Apple should crush $23 in ttm EPS with four months to spare.  Analysts don’t have much of a choice but to revise upward.

    The smart money should follow before too long.

    yeah.. I agree, and I can’t wait.

         
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    Posted: 20 April 2011 11:02 PM #6

    To clarify:  The 17.9 low P/E reached was a couple days ago (17.91 ttm P/E x 17.9 = about the 320 intraday low)

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 April 2011 11:04 PM #7

    DawnTreader - 21 April 2011 01:56 AM
    Mav - 21 April 2011 01:37 AM

    We’re on the way up. 

    Bumpiness is always to be expected.  But soon, people will see AAPL’s ttm P/E of 17.  As hard as AAPL got pounded, AAPL’s lowest P/E, intraday, was about 17.9 when FUD and anti-AAPL forces were at their peak.  We now have cheaper valuation on improving sentiment and ever greater fortunes ahead. 

    Also, analysts’ $23 EPS for FY 2011 estimates are looking awfully stupid right now.  Kinda like a straw man in the path of a locomotive.  Apple should crush $23 in ttm EPS with four months to spare.  Analysts don’t have much of a choice but to revise upward.

    The smart money should follow before too long.

    if you think that’s bad, check out the FY 2012 estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop

    Oh yeah.  $26.51 or so for all of FY ‘12.  Hilarious!

    [ Edited: 20 April 2011 11:17 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2011 11:29 PM #8

    adamthompson3232 - 21 April 2011 02:15 AM
    Mav - 21 April 2011 02:04 AM

    Oh yeah.  $26.51 or so for all of FY ‘12.  Hilarious!

    It is now EXTREMELY obvious to anyone with a positive IQ (doesn’t everyone have a positive IQ?) that Apple will exceed current 2012 estimates this year. Any analyst who revises estimates upward but to something less than $30.00 EPS in 2012 should be immediately fired. It looks more and more possible that Apple could get to $40.00 EPS in fiscal 2012 (50% EPS growth over 2011) but it’s still too early to say that with a high degree of confidence. $30.00, though, is an absolute certainty unless FoxConn’s factories crumble, the economy melts down, AND Microsoft comes out with an iPad killer. Of course, I’m kidding about the last one:)

    My gosh. What did we do to you? One quarter on the PED analyst comparison list and you are on analysis overdrive.  LOL

         
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    Posted: 21 April 2011 12:12 AM #9

    adamthompson3232 - 21 April 2011 02:52 AM

    Thank you, DT, for getting me involved. It’s a lot of fun. And profitable too:)

    That is what counts, right?

    And I am lucky to be able to get in some more Monday morning at 322.  That is why I always keep some of my powder dry.

         
  • Posted: 21 April 2011 12:17 AM #10

    DawnTreader - 21 April 2011 01:02 AM

    AAPL finished New York trading at $342.41 and vaulted to $353.02 in AH trading following the release of March quarter results. Will the rally gain momentum in early New York trading on Thursday?

    Using the “vaulting” analogy, it actually cleared a AH height of somewhere near $358 before “landing” at $353.02

    I wonder if we’ll hold a solid $350 floor tomorrow, or if it will retrace all the way back to yesterday’s close first?

    Hey, the great news out of this quarter (aside from just about everything); think of what the iPad numbers are going to add up to be NEXT quarter.  Wow!

         
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    Posted: 21 April 2011 12:32 AM #11

    I am actually pissed.

    the numbers were solid and I expected a 3% jump.  We may get 4% tomorrow.

    What I can’t believe is that we basically doubled our earnings and all we get is a 3%. 

    WS just hates us with a passion.  p/e compression has been taking place in front of us and we are powerless to do anything about it.

    I am at a loss in predicting where the stock will go.  It is acting consistently the last three earnings releases.  We get about a 10% increase from prior low.  The problem is that we went from 364 to 320 so our base was much lower this time.

    I think we could see 360 tomorrow and would not be surprised to see 345 in the next two weeks.

    No share buy back no stock split and we are only from 10% higher then Oct highs.

         
  • Posted: 21 April 2011 12:34 AM #12

    Since markets are closed Friday, I assume weekly options will have their effect tomorrow instead. Hopefully the pressure will not be great enough to halt the earnings momentum. But if it does prove a roadblock, I’d expect to resume the rocket ride Monday. [yes, I know I mixed my metaphors, but that’s the way I like them, mixed not stirred]

         
  • Posted: 21 April 2011 12:35 AM #13

    Thursday

    R4       355.97
      midpoint   353.85
    R3       351.72
      midpoint   349.60
    R2       347.47
      midpoint   346.21
    R1       344.94
      midpoint   344.08
    PP       343.22
      midpoint   341.96
    S1       340.69
      midpoint   339.83
    S2       338.97
      midpoint   336.85
    S3       334.72
      midpoint   332.60
    S4       330.47

         
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    Posted: 21 April 2011 12:49 AM #14

    adamthompson3232 - 21 April 2011 02:52 AM
    DawnTreader - 21 April 2011 02:29 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 21 April 2011 02:15 AM
    Mav - 21 April 2011 02:04 AM

    Oh yeah.  $26.51 or so for all of FY ‘12.  Hilarious!

    It is now EXTREMELY obvious to anyone with a positive IQ (doesn’t everyone have a positive IQ?) that Apple will exceed current 2012 estimates this year. Any analyst who revises estimates upward but to something less than $30.00 EPS in 2012 should be immediately fired. It looks more and more possible that Apple could get to $40.00 EPS in fiscal 2012 (50% EPS growth over 2011) but it’s still too early to say that with a high degree of confidence. $30.00, though, is an absolute certainty unless FoxConn’s factories crumble, the economy melts down, AND Microsoft comes out with an iPad killer. Of course, I’m kidding about the last one:)

    My gosh. What did we do to you? One quarter on the PED analyst comparison and your on analysis overdrive.  LOL

    DT,

    It’s your fault actually. You “forced” me to do this and now you have a monster on your hands. I am eagerly waiting Deagol’s tabulation of the smack down results. Admittedly, I blew it on EPS primarily because I was so conservative on GM%. I should have known better based on the previous 4 quarters of GM% beat.

    Thank you, DT, for getting me involved. It’s a lot of fun. And profitable too:)

    You blew it? How? You called 6.20 EPS, 25.18 Revs, 18.3 M iPhones, 5.9 M iPads. I don’t know who will be the official winner, but those estimates look uncanny to me. (Insert icon of tipping hat)

         
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    Posted: 21 April 2011 12:54 AM #15

    Unique - 21 April 2011 03:51 AM

    Thing is they drove us from 320 to 357.47(after hour high). That’s 11+%. Yes, it’s frustrating, but like you said in prior posts we will be higher a year from now :D

    Sponge cheer up :D I have a cold Heineken waiting for you

    Where do you live?, I will be right over. grin

    Hey at least we are not talking about visiting 310 or dropping like google.

    and speaking of drinks, Time bring up Vegas thread.  :-D