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The big question for FQ3 2011
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PurpleApple
- [ Ignore ]
Will Apple sell as many or more iPhones in FQ3 as it did in FQ2 (i.e., at least 18.6MM)? If so, why? If not, why?
If it can, we could see EPS of ~$7.0 (and ttm EPS through FQ3 of around $24.50) based on my first cut of FQ3 2011 EPS (forecast).
Btw, I’m guessing iPad 2 unit sales will roughly double sequentially, as a conservative first estimate.
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PurpleApple
- [ Ignore ]
EPS of $7.00 for FQ3 would represent a YoY increase of about 100%, by the way, and it is achievable if iPhone sales will comply.
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AT, I can only see a significant iPhone downtick in the event of a big iPhone 5 sales pause, accompanied by no iPhone 5 in the quarter. Everything else is typical Oppenheimer sandbagging. Oh, and maybe a little misdirection too. Oppenheimer seemed to hint at higher-than-fiscal-Q1 EPS at first glance. $0.10 higher guidance, $0.03 lower actual result.
It’s a fascinating, not-entirely-predictable game he’s playing. I don’t think “$23 million” this and “$22 million” that is coincidence. Notice the complete lack of decimal points in revs guidance since July 2010? He’s being cagier than ever!
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
That $ 5.03 number might send a signal of a secret kept for centuries. If we can open the .... .... Oh wait, never mind. I am watching The Da Vinci Code on Crackle.
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Hey, if you think iPhones will be down sequentially that’s fine. Why, is the question.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Hey, if you think iPhones will be down sequentially that’s fine. Why, is the question.
I would imagine it is the lull between expected models, people waiting to upgrade. If a september launch is accurate that will slow some potential buyers.
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AT, I can only see a significant iPhone downtick in the event of a big iPhone 5 sales pause, accompanied by no iPhone 5 in the quarter.
This is what some believe happened to iPad sales in the last quarter. If so, and consumers are becoming smarter about Apple’s releases, and can endure delayed gratification for new devices, then this could happen for the iPhone5, which is consistently rumoured for September (or at least Fall) 2011.Signature
wab95
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I believe iPhones will be down sequentially even though sales to consumers might be about the same. The said at least a couple of times on the call that they had more phones in the channel at the end of the quarter than at the start and that they had reached supply/demand equilibrium. All of that tells me that iPhone numbers will be down, but not by much.
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I believe iPhones will be down sequentially even though sales to consumers might be about the same. The said at least a couple of times on the call that they had more phones in the channel at the end of the quarter than at the start and that they had reached supply/demand equilibrium. All of that tells me that iPhone numbers will be down, but not by much.
I believe PO said they had 5.2 million iPhones in the channel which was in their target range of 4 to 6 weeks of inventory. I have put together some unit projections based on those numbers with the assumption they don’t get any new channels to fill during the quarter, TC said they are always looking at new carriers so I don’t know if this is a good assumption.
Weeks of inventory Units/Week Q3 Total
4 1.3 16.9
5 1.04 13.52
6 0.87 11.27Hopefully they are closer to the four weeks side of the target range based on these unit projections.
[ Edited: 21 April 2011 05:12 PM by cdodge ]
Edit: Forgot there are in 13 weeks in a quarter.
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@chasedodge
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18.6 million in 13 weeks = 1,430,000 per week.
