Is Microsoft/Nokia a sleeping giant or just sleeping?

  • Posted: 30 April 2011 07:46 PM #46

    OK.  So to sum up my thoughts…after just reading everyones replies…

    MSFT has learned over 2 decades that slow but sure wins the race. 

    The feel no immediacy in anything b/c they have such strong cash cows.

    They can afford to protect their untouchable top cartel execs when they make bonehead decisions AND THE STOCK PRICE STILL REMAINS STABLE.

    MSFT appears to be taking the long view. 

    The leadership stinks, and have no vision.

    But they can afford it due to an absolutely never ending cash cow that is the Enterprise, not to mentiond Desktop, and now gaming, and soon to be Search, and now Mobile. 

    They patiently watch, then copy…aapl.

    It is foolish to believe that MSFT will not eventually be in the game in a huge way with Mobile.

    They see the writing on the wall and their desktop space in jeopardy to mobile and as well as internet. 

    Hence they pour massive amounts of money into advertising Bing.com Search, and even pay joe shmoe to use their search engine. 

    Mobile is next.  MSFT is not not about to forfeit the OS Desktop to Mobile so easily.  They know they have to succeed in mobile at all costs.  Hence the broad NOK deal

    The December Mobile wars will soon be here with the release of the first new WM7 phones on the new OS. 

    I think it will be very good earnings come Q2 for NOK and probably thereafter MSFT

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2011 07:54 PM #47

    I used to think MSFT would hold out and then hold out some more.  iPhone took away MSFT’s chance to make a strong Windows Mobile Market.  But iPad is different.  iPad has cracked the MSFT glass and its circulatory system all kinds of problems.

         
  • Posted: 30 April 2011 07:54 PM #48

    Steves:

    westech?good points in general, but why does MSFT/NOK need to make a great product which is at least as good as AAPL for WMC7 to succeed?? MSFT is in it for the long haul.? They can endlessly funnel money from their cash cows to their new unprofitable ventures like Xbox until xbox can stand on its own 2 feet.? They are in the process of doing that now for bing.com.? while you see bing.com as potentially a failure and certainly not a game changer, MSFT is taking the long view and slowing stealing from google, building up their ad business.? whether NOK/MSFT can work together seems to be the big question i am hearing.? I dont think this is an issue.? Rather than risk a botched partnership, they installed a MSFT employee in as NOK?s new CEO. I think its safe to say MSFT will be steering the direction of NOK now.? I think you are correct that NOK does not have the expertise to design the whole OS and is looking for MSFT to do it.? As for whether MSFT can take guidance from NOK?. I am sure that areas that natural lines of influence already exist, such as NOK?s wide distribution channels and MSFT will likely defer to NOK on these issues, so long as the new NOK ex MSFT CEO signs off.
    MSFT has has been playing a very slow game here, but their pieces are congealing.? great link to the minimsft blog.

    MSFT had a good product in Zune, and they did not succeed.

    Appointing a MSFT man as CEO means that MSFT will probably dictate the nature of the product while ignoring Nokia’s market input.  Not one of MSFT’s strong points.

    Having deep pockets helps.  XBox 360 cost them billions before it began to show a profit.  it’s better to be efficient and do it well and quickly.

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    The measure of the worth of a product is how much people are willing to pay for it, not how many people will buy it if the price is low enough.

         
  • Posted: 30 April 2011 07:57 PM #49

    One of the things that separates Apple from it’s competitors is it’s incredible execution in all phases of it’s business. ?Nowhere is this more true than it’s R & D. ?It has an incredible knack of picking the right things to work on, knowing what it wants to accomplish in these areas, focusing on these, developing new products and bringing them to market when they are ready.

    One might think that they have a huge budget. ?Not so. ?Here are the numbers:

    Apple: ? ? ? ?$581 million, ? ?2.36% ?of revenue

    Microsoft: ? ? $2,264 million, ? ?13.8 % of revenue

    Google: ? ? ? ?$818 million, ? ?12.1 % of revenue

    I don’t believe that Micrsoft can utilize their R & D resources to turn their company around without other massive changes.

    I don’t believe that Google can reinvigorate their growth just by hiring more people.

    BTW, I spent a good part of my life in R & ?D.

    Spending a lot of money and having a lot of people doesn’t help if you are not working on the right things.

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    The measure of the worth of a product is how much people are willing to pay for it, not how many people will buy it if the price is low enough.

         
  • Posted: 30 April 2011 09:14 PM #50

    danthemason - appl selling out every phone made has no bearing on whether anyone else?s phone could take off.  the mobile market is in its infancy


    I’m curious as to who could make an impact on the market with greater force than Apple is doing now.

         
  • Posted: 30 April 2011 11:02 PM #51

    i saw this post on the RIMM thread:

    bilter2000 - 29 April 2011 01:07 PM

    I had the chance to use a playbook this week.  A sales rep that visits me often bought one.  When I asked why the playbook he responded “because it syncs with my blackberry”.

    .
    This is an excellent point to remember, the whole “sync” lock in. 

    Im sure I don’t have to remind Mac users the horrible years of having to figure out what phone will actually iSync to your Address Book and Calendar properly.

    Very few.  There was a complicated matrix apple put out of what worked and what didn’t.

    The moment we had iPhone our problems were solved.

    In this same way, I think the vast majority of Window users will just pick a Windows phone for the assurance that “it syncs” with their PC.

    Dont understate this..  This is CRITICAL.

    This is actually the crucial vendor lock in that I believe MSFT/NOK will include in their products as usual. 

    Just like I could never fully sync my Mac to Window Mobile without the help of some kludgey 3rd software bridge software… who wants that?

         
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    Posted: 01 May 2011 12:29 AM #52

    steves - 01 May 2011 02:02 AM

    ...I think the vast majority of Window users will just pick a Windows phone for the assurance that “it syncs” with their PC.

    This is patently untrue. There’s 300-400 million smartphone users and maybe 4-5% run a Microsoft mobile OS. The vast majority of Windows PC users use smartphones that run Symbian, Blackberry, iOS or Android.

    I’m really not sure how many people need anything but the most basic syncing features. Apple is undoubtedly working on this, but it’s clearly not put a damper on iPhone or iPad sales.

         
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    Posted: 01 May 2011 12:42 AM #53

    greatgazoo192 - 29 April 2011 02:42 AM

    If Nokia can convince it’s customer base in these three continents(especially Asia) to “stay on board” through their transition to “Windows Mobile”, then yes, “Microsoft” will be in the #1 spot, but only because of the market share Nokia holds with it’s current Symbian OS.

    This is a very big “IF”. Even if it came to pass, it would likely only mean that Nokia continues to hang on to the low end market. Apple could care less. Go ahead and be king of the sub-$100 phone market.

    While Nokia still leads the global handset market in sales, Apple has become the leader in revenue. In the first quarter, Apple sold 18.65 million iPhones at an average price of $660 for revenue of $11.9 billion…While sales leader Nokia shipped 108.5 million handsets in the first quarter at an average selling price of $94.77—equivalent to $9.4 billion

    http://www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=78250

         
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    Posted: 01 May 2011 12:43 AM #54

    my iPhone and iPad sync very well with Gmail and Google Calendar.  and iOS has sync capability with Microsoft Exchange as well.  i think for the most part sync works well between any of these 3 major systems (Google, Apple [Mobile Me], Microsoft [Exchange]).  in my opinion there is no platform lock-in in terms of sync issues.  it might be a perception by users, but i would guess not.  i would guess anyone who knows enough to care about sync probably puts in a little time to research and find out the capabilities of the device.

         
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    Posted: 01 May 2011 01:33 AM #55

    steves - 30 April 2011 10:37 PM

    MSFT is in it for the long haul.  They can endlessly funnel money from their cash cows to their new unprofitable ventures like Xbox until xbox can stand on its own 2 feet.  They are in the process of doing that now for bing.com.  while you see bing.com as potentially a failure and certainly not a game changer, MSFT is taking the long view and slowing stealing from google, building up their ad business.

    Xbox will turn 10 yrs. old this November. Although this division has been profitable for a few years, it has a long ways to go before it makes up for the $billions of losses accumulated in the early years. $4 billion revenue in it’s 10th year vs iPad’s $10-12 billion in it’s first year. That’s pretty weak for it’s most successful product line outside of the big 3.

    Bing is still in it’s bleeding-red-ink phase: at a rate of $3-4 billion per year. It’d be a safe bet to guess they’ll throw $10 billion into the pit before they see the first penny of profit. But they’re in it for the long haul, so let’s see what they can look forward to in a few years. Google’s search ad revenue is somewhere in the $20 billion range annually. MSFT would do well to reach $5 billion by the time their online division reaches its 10th birthday. Adjust for inflation and that’s about as good as Xbox. Again, weak.

    mercel - you said: ” many, many MS employees are closet Apple customers.  Funny. ”  -  This isn’t funny.  it’s scary (if you are an AAPL investor).  It shows that the design and vision of AAPL will assimilate as usual into all MSFT products, and MSFT will eventually take over, regardless of in fighting.  MSFT will eventually produce last years ipad.

    MSFT has already “taken over”. They are Rome just past her peak and beginning the slow decline. The tide is turning towards iOS & OSX devices. Microsoft had years of experience with its mobile OS before Apple jumped in with the 2007 iPhone. They still haven’t caught up. What evidence is there that they (partnered with Nokia/Dell/??) can produce anything like an iPad anytime soon?

    Microsoft and Nokia will be around for many years to come. Microsoft especially will continue to thrive. It just won’t be able to keep up with Apple’s growth. Nokia will be the Dell of the cell phone industry. They’ll stay profitable selling lots of cheap devices with thin margins.