China Mobile

  • Posted: 26 April 2011 03:08 AM

    My two favorite share price pumping words: China Mobile

    When should we expect the announcement?

         
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    Posted: 26 April 2011 03:14 AM #1

    It should be this summer. 

    The India company said a few months.  I expect the same for China Mobile.

    The only question is weather it will be an iPhone 4 or IPhone 4S?:)

         
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    Posted: 26 April 2011 04:36 AM #2

    Will China Mobile get the iPhone 4 or its successor?

    If China Mobile will get a TD-SCDMA iPhone 4 (hey, it’d be worth any reengineering cost), I say we’ll hear about it before iPhone 5 is launched.  Otherwise, we may need to wait a few more months.  I sure hope not though.  Tim Cook seems to be very clear that Apple is focusing on China. 

    Maybe China Mobile’s still in negotiations?

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  • Posted: 26 April 2011 08:03 AM #3

    Our focus has very much been on China. We wanted to understand that market and understand the levers there. And as I said before, we’re—iPhone sales were up over 3x during the quarter. And in the first half, we did over 5—just slightly under $5 billion in Greater China in revenue, which is about 10% of Apple, to put it in perspective. And it wasn’t but a couple of years ago that, that number would have been less than 2. And so it’s a sea change. And that’s certainly not, what I would call, a classic post-pay market by any means of the imagination. And so we have some ideas about other countries as well. I’m not in a position that I want to share those today. But we purposely put the bulk of our emphasis from an emerging market point of view on China to really learn, and then we’re going to take that learning to other markets.
    Seeking Alpha

    Whenever I hear the phrase “we have ideas” and “not in a position to share those today” it means that the plan that has been years in the making is soon ready to fire (remember when they ‘had ideas’ of how to combat the netbook?) It’s 6 months out in the worst case, but I’m betting on June.  The energy required to go full bore in China might even be a large factor in the rumored iPhone 5 in September story.

    Funny, whenever I hear the words “China Mobile”,  I hear angels singing and the room fills with white fog…strange.

    (Thanks to Gene for asking the specific question I really wanted asked..glad he reads AFB

         
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    Posted: 26 April 2011 08:24 AM #4

    Due to the technologies involved I think China Telecom on CDMA iPhone 4 will come first.  China Mobile CEO was talking TD LTE and TC said 2012 for LTE.  I’m expecting China & India CDMA announcements hopefully be the end of this qtr, now that we have a supply demand balance.

         
  • Posted: 26 April 2011 09:39 AM #5

    pats - 26 April 2011 11:24 AM

    Due to the technologies involved I think China Telecom on CDMA iPhone 4 will come first.  China Mobile CEO was talking TD LTE and TC said 2012 for LTE.  I’m expecting China & India CDMA announcements hopefully be the end of this qtr, now that we have a supply demand balance.

    I agree. We won’t see China Mobile until 2012 due to CEO’s statement about TD LTE. However, I don’t think any other CDMA platforms will launch until iPhone 5 is released. As for the iPhone 5 release, I have been moved to the September camp as well due to PO comments in conf. call and WWDC announcement about software. I hope Apple is just trying to be extra quiet about it due to the leak last year, but I don’t think so at this point.

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    Posted: 26 April 2011 09:55 AM #6

    cranium - 26 April 2011 11:03 AM

    Our focus has very much been on China. We wanted to understand that market and understand the levers there. And as I said before, we’re—iPhone sales were up over 3x during the quarter. And in the first half, we did over 5—just slightly under $5 billion in Greater China in revenue, which is about 10% of Apple, to put it in perspective. And it wasn’t but a couple of years ago that, that number would have been less than 2. And so it’s a sea change. And that’s certainly not, what I would call, a classic post-pay market by any means of the imagination. And so we have some ideas about other countries as well. I’m not in a position that I want to share those today. But we purposely put the bulk of our emphasis from an emerging market point of view on China to really learn, and then we’re going to take that learning to other markets.
    Seeking Alpha

    Whenever I hear the phrase “we have ideas” and “not in a position to share those today” it means that the plan that has been years in the making is soon ready to fire (remember when they ‘had ideas’ of how to combat the netbook?) It’s 6 months out in the worst case, but I’m betting on June.  The energy required to go full bore in China might even be a large factor in the rumored iPhone 5 in September story.

    Funny, whenever I hear the words “China Mobile”,  I hear angels singing and the room fills with white fog…strange.

    (Thanks to Gene for asking the specific question I really wanted asked..glad he reads AFB

    The proposition that an iPhone 5 delay is caused by an iPhone release on china mobile is an intriguing one. That would be wonderful.

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    Posted: 26 April 2011 11:16 AM #7

    DawnTreader - 26 April 2011 06:08 AM

    My two favorite share price pumping words: China Mobile

    When should we expect the announcement?

    DT, thanks for posting this question. I’m drooling over the prospect of 600 million potential iphone customers. A few percent (~5% maybe) of 600 million ====>  grin

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
  • Posted: 26 April 2011 11:54 PM #8

    pats - 26 April 2011 11:24 AM

    Due to the technologies involved I think China Telecom on CDMA iPhone 4 will come first.  China Mobile CEO was talking TD LTE and TC said 2012 for LTE.  I’m expecting China & India CDMA announcements hopefully be the end of this qtr, now that we have a supply demand balance.

    That sounds very reasonable to me and I’d be quite happy with that approach.

    Anyone care to speculate on what Apple has gathered are the ‘levers’ in China (“We wanted to understand that market and understand the levers there.”)? I thought someone would jump in with the cheaper version of the iPhone? On that other hand, they are obviously doing quite well with the present version, and the goal has always been ‘the best’, not ‘the most’. I’ve always argued strenuously against the idea of the iPhone nano, but if there is any market where you might make the argument, China and India would be it.

         
  • Posted: 27 April 2011 12:17 AM #9

    cranium - 27 April 2011 02:54 AM
    pats - 26 April 2011 11:24 AM

    Due to the technologies involved I think China Telecom on CDMA iPhone 4 will come first.  China Mobile CEO was talking TD LTE and TC said 2012 for LTE.  I’m expecting China & India CDMA announcements hopefully be the end of this qtr, now that we have a supply demand balance.

    That sounds very reasonable to me and I’d be quite happy with that approach.

    Anyone care to speculate on what Apple has gathered are the ‘levers’ in China (“We wanted to understand that market and understand the levers there.”)? I thought someone would jump in with the cheaper version of the iPhone? On that other hand, they are obviously doing quite well with the present version, and the goal has always been ‘the best’, not ‘the most’. I’ve always argued strenuously against the idea of the iPhone nano, but if there is any market where you might make the argument, China and India would be it.

    I am not sure that you need a low cost phone for India and China. I believe there are more rich and middle class people in India and China than anywhere else in the world (in terms of numbers). High end consumer products will do nicely in these two countries. No low cost products needed here.  With regard to the poor they do not need a smart phone. In any case locally produced phones are very very cheap in India and China. Much cheaper than anywhere in the Developed countries.

         
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    Posted: 27 April 2011 12:44 AM #10

    cranium - 27 April 2011 02:54 AM
    pats - 26 April 2011 11:24 AM

    Due to the technologies involved I think China Telecom on CDMA iPhone 4 will come first.  China Mobile CEO was talking TD LTE and TC said 2012 for LTE.  I’m expecting China & India CDMA announcements hopefully be the end of this qtr, now that we have a supply demand balance.

    That sounds very reasonable to me and I’d be quite happy with that approach.

    Anyone care to speculate on what Apple has gathered are the ‘levers’ in China (“We wanted to understand that market and understand the levers there.”)? I thought someone would jump in with the cheaper version of the iPhone? On that other hand, they are obviously doing quite well with the present version, and the goal has always been ‘the best’, not ‘the most’. I’ve always argued strenuously against the idea of the iPhone nano, but if there is any market where you might make the argument, China and India would be it.

    Do we have a starting point for speculation on what the current ASP for prepay phones on china mobile is?

    I think once we know that we can start to speculate whether apple can profitably sell a discounted version of the iPhone 4 selling in the $400-$500 USD range, or whether it needs to be a stripped down iPhone Air/Nano/3GS style phone with a cheaper build cost selling in the $200-$300 USD range.

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    Posted: 27 April 2011 12:50 AM #11

    MacOz - 27 April 2011 03:17 AM
    cranium - 27 April 2011 02:54 AM
    pats - 26 April 2011 11:24 AM

    Due to the technologies involved I think China Telecom on CDMA iPhone 4 will come first.  China Mobile CEO was talking TD LTE and TC said 2012 for LTE.  I’m expecting China & India CDMA announcements hopefully be the end of this qtr, now that we have a supply demand balance.

    That sounds very reasonable to me and I’d be quite happy with that approach.

    Anyone care to speculate on what Apple has gathered are the ‘levers’ in China (“We wanted to understand that market and understand the levers there.”)? I thought someone would jump in with the cheaper version of the iPhone? On that other hand, they are obviously doing quite well with the present version, and the goal has always been ‘the best’, not ‘the most’. I’ve always argued strenuously against the idea of the iPhone nano, but if there is any market where you might make the argument, China and India would be it.

    I am not sure that you need a low cost phone for India and China. I believe there are more rich and middle class people in India and China than anywhere else in the world (in terms of numbers). High end consumer products will do nicely in these two countries. No low cost products needed here.  With regard to the poor they do not need a smart phone. In any case locally produced phones are very very cheap in India and China. Much cheaper than anywhere in the Developed countries.

    I think the opposite is true - The poor & middle class DO need a smarrtphone, as it will be there one and only computing & communication device - bypassing the PC & landline completely. And it will be prepaid - not on contract.

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  • Posted: 27 April 2011 01:04 AM #12

    iOSWeekly - 27 April 2011 03:50 AM

    I think the opposite is true - The poor & middle class DO need a smarrtphone, as it will be there one and only computing & communication device - bypassing the PC & landline completely. And it will be prepaid - not on contract.

    Most of us in the west are unfamiliar with how important cell phones have become for the conduct of commerce in lesser developed regions of the world and in regions with sparse population densities and absent easy access to modern transportation infrastructure.

    The question is whether or not Apple chooses to address this market.

         
  • Posted: 27 April 2011 01:45 AM #13

    China unicom just announced numbers and spent over $800m usd on handset subsidies.  That is up from almost nothing the year before. 

    I wonder if that is about 2m iPhone units?

    Maybe they are ramping before china telecom gets the CDMA version?

         
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    Posted: 27 April 2011 01:49 AM #14

    Paging Horace Dediu…...  thanks to Jlaus, we have some numbers to chew on.

    jlaus - 27 April 2011 04:45 AM

    China unicom just announced numbers and spent over $800m usd on handset subsidies.  That is up from almost nothing the year before. 

    I wonder if that is about 2m iPhone units?

    Maybe they are ramping before china telecom gets the CDMA version?

    Link found

    China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. Tuesday reported its first-quarter unaudited net profit tumbled 86% from a year earlier as it continued to offer heavy subsidies on third-generation mobile phones in an attempt to catch up with its bigger rival.

    China Unicom, China’s second-biggest mobile carrier by accounts and the country’s only carrier to offer Apple Inc.‘s iPhone, is racing with China Telecom Corp. and China Mobile Ltd. to boost revenue by adding users of third-generation mobile services, which offer faster data speeds at a higher price. Tough competition and heavy spending on subsidies for 3G handsets weighed on China Unicom’s net profit last year, though analysts say the subsidies could help accelerate the company’s growth in 3G users this year.

    http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=464297&mail=500&C=0

         
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    Posted: 18 May 2011 03:59 AM #15

    PRODUCTION CONSTRAINTS!

    That old howler.  Again.

    I look forward to what I hope is the repeated repudiation of DigiEnquirer.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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