AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 08 May 2011 04:28 PM

    We’re off to the races. Will AAPL rise in early Monday trading? When will the company’s current rates of revenue and earnings growth factor into the share price valuation?

    [ Edited: 14 May 2011 01:38 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 08 May 2011 05:30 PM #1

    AAPL major hurdle is pro analysts estimates of revenue and earnings growth for then next 3 years.
    It is between 15% and 20% per year.
    They have high targets for AAPL but their published growth estimates are ridiculously low and contradict their targets.
    Until that change, P/E ratio will be stuck under 17.

         
  • Posted: 08 May 2011 05:40 PM #2

    Fascinating…

    Steve Jobs Believes Apple Will OK Without Him

    http://www.cultofmac.com/steve-jobs-believes-apple-will-ok-without-him/93945

    In the last decade, Jobs has thoroughly remade Apple in his image. His personality traits have become encoded as the way the company does things. His perfectionism, attention to detail, even his design taste, have become part and parcel of Apple?s processes, from product development to advertising.

    One of the most interesting revelations in Lashinky?s piece concerns the ?case studies? that are being written about Apple?s most important decisions, such as consolidating iPhone manufacturing around a single factory in China. Jobs hired Joel Podolny, former dean of Yale School of management, as Apple head of HR. He?s been busy with a team of ?eggheads? writing studies about Apple?s business decisions.

    ?It runs out Podolny has been busy working on a project that speaks directly to the delicate topic of life at Apple after Jobs. At Jobs? instruction, Podolny hired a team of business professors, including the renowned Harvard veteran and Andy Grove biographer Richard Tedlow. This band of eggheads is writing a series of internal case studies about significant decisions in Apple?s recent history. It?s exactly the sort of thing the major business schools do, except Apple?s case studies are for an Apple-only audience? The goal is to expose the next layer of management to the executive team?s thought process? Jobs even is ensuring that his teachings are being collected, curated and preserved so that future generations of Apple?s leaders can consult and interpret them.?

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 07:23 PM #3

    Hamourabi - 08 May 2011 08:40 PM

    Fascinating…

    Steve Jobs Believes Apple Will OK Without Him

    http://www.cultofmac.com/steve-jobs-believes-apple-will-ok-without-him/93945

    This is going to be a very interesting and ‘linked’ story about Apple/Jobs. There are hints in here about how the magic will live on well past SJ’s tenure.

    cheers
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 09:45 PM #4

    Nikkei is flat.  US futures are green.

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 10:33 PM #5

    Some Garnish for Tomorrow’s positive open
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42951528

         
  • Posted: 08 May 2011 11:01 PM #6

    Nagrani - 09 May 2011 01:33 AM

    Some Garnish for Tomorrow’s positive open
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42951528

    Great.
    Will probably have opposite effect and cause AAPL to sell-off.
    (gripe gripe, moan moan)

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 11:46 PM #7

    johnG - 08 May 2011 10:23 PM
    Hamourabi - 08 May 2011 08:40 PM

    Fascinating…

    Steve Jobs Believes Apple Will OK Without Him

    http://www.cultofmac.com/steve-jobs-believes-apple-will-ok-without-him/93945

    This is going to be a very interesting and ‘linked’ story about Apple/Jobs. There are hints in here about how the magic will live on well past SJ’s tenure.

    cheers
        JohnG

    IHMO, the best CEOs know they’re only stewards of the company, not the company itself, because that way they help build for the future.  Harder to do when you’re also the founder, but assuming Lashinsky’s reporting is solid, the rest of the world is finding out what most of us have long suspected.  As I’ve argued before, if anything Steve’s health issues have only increased his efforts to ensure Apple maintains its corporate/product philosophy no matter who’s in charge.

    I’d think it’s be very hard to find a company better prepared for the future than Apple.  Steve’s still the man, but in some ways he’s like the proud parent watching his kid biking off into the sunset without the training wheels.

    Hopefully long-term, Apple will see continuous promotion from within.  The second I see a CEO with no obvious and deep ties to Apple, I’ll start wondering.

    [ Edited: 08 May 2011 11:49 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 11:56 PM #8

    Hamourabi - 08 May 2011 08:30 PM

    AAPL major hurdle is pro analysts estimates of revenue and earnings growth for then next 3 years.
    It is between 15% and 20% per year.
    They have high targets for AAPL but their published growth estimates are ridiculously low and contradict their targets.
    Until that change, P/E ratio will be stuck under 17.

    Have been thinking about how apples guidance effects its perceived growth rate. Its possible that from a spreadsheet point of view, apples traditional low guidance creates an artificial impression that its near term growth rate is slowing.

    To explain in a hypothetical situation: if I have a spreadsheet which takes into account earnings results from previous quarters, their year on year growth rates, and includes company guidance for upcoming quaters - then a valuation for AAPL on my spreadsheet is going to be lower, as the lowball company guidance will imply that the large year on year increases in earnings from previous quaters is going to be lower in the next quarter - effectively implyign that the company growth rate is going to slow dwon in the next quarter.

    I know everyone here understands that apple consistently beats its guidance, but its possible that if you use the same off-the-shelf spreadsheet formula to calculate price & growth targets for any stock you are “analysing” - then if you dont make any changes for Apples notorious lowballing on guidance, then you are going to end up with a lower valuation based on company-indicated slowing growth.

    Thoughts?

    Signature

    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 09 May 2011 12:04 AM #9

    Imho,

    That one of the top   5 reasons for current compression.  Others are world economics, wall street manipulation, Apple disbelief and one more I forgot.

         
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    Posted: 09 May 2011 01:00 AM #10

    Someone mentioned the importance of speech recognition to future iterations of iOS in an earlier board. Here’s the company that might help provide it:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2011/05/06/apple-negotiating-deal-with-nuance-for-speech-recognition-in-ios-5/

         
  • Posted: 09 May 2011 01:24 AM #11

    Monday

    R4       358.99
      midpoint   357.10
    R3       355.20
      midpoint   353.31
    R2       351.41
      midpoint   350.23
    R1       349.04
      midpoint   348.33
    PP       347.62
      midpoint   346.44
    S1       345.25
      midpoint   344.54
    S2       343.83
      midpoint   341.94
    S3       340.04
      midpoint   338.15
    S4       336.25

         
  • Posted: 09 May 2011 09:57 AM #12

    caruso2323 - 09 May 2011 02:19 AM

    A nice squeeze could get AAPL to break through 355 :)
    Friday’s action suggets a shortie irrational exuberance ... Shorting close to 345.20 sounds irrational exuberance…
    There will be blood ...

    PM is not sounding like that. I think we would touch the 50 DMA. Lets see how it goes

         
  • Posted: 09 May 2011 10:09 AM #13

    One day, possibly when we least expect it, the stock is finally going to rise, and rise and rise!

         
  • Posted: 09 May 2011 10:23 AM #14

    qualitywte - 09 May 2011 01:09 PM

    One day, possibly when we least expect it, the stock is finally going to rise, and rise and rise!

    Hopefully, but I am afraid that there are tons of squeezed long around. Hedgies knows about that and want to take advantage before they let AAPL free to go upward….

         
  • Posted: 09 May 2011 10:29 AM #15

    Max pain is 340 for May 21. So folks relax, take some time off AAPL isn’t going anywhere until it can cross 349.75. Break of 345.03 = 340 support. Still trading within the channel