June Quarter Mac Unit Sales

  • Posted: 08 May 2011 06:50 PM

    The Macintosh like showed surprising strength in the Match quarter with unit sales rising 28%. Apple has recently refreshed the iMac line which should boost desktop unit sales. iMac unit sales have lagged while the portable Mac line experienced 53% unit sales growth last quarter.

    What should we expect from Mac unit sales in the June quarter?

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 07:18 PM #1

    The Apple Macintosh:  Success in The Era of Handheld Devices

    http://www.postsateventide.com/2011/03/apple-macintosh-success-in-era-of.html

    The last 5 quarters’ unit sales (thousands):  2943, 3472, 3885, 4134 and for Jan-Mar 3760.

    My early guesstimate is 3900.  iMac and MacBook Pro sales up.  Others holding steady or down, unless we get some updated hardware released.

         
  • Posted: 08 May 2011 07:20 PM #2

    Tetrachloride - 08 May 2011 10:18 PM

    The Apple Macintosh:  Success in The Era of Handheld Devices

    http://www.postsateventide.com/2011/03/apple-macintosh-success-in-era-of.html

    The last 5 quarters’ unit sales (thousands):  2943, 3472, 3885, 4134 and for Jan-Mar 3760.

    My early guesstimate is 3900.  iMac and MacBook Pro sales up.  Others holding steady or down, unless we get some updated hardware released.

    I remember reading that blog post too.  :wink:  LOL

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 07:51 PM #3

    The last 2 years they’ve had almost 18% growth from Q2 to Q3. If that holds true, we’re looking at over 4400.

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 08:05 PM #4

    There have been recurring rumors of a June Mac Air update. That update will likely determine the extent of mac sales increase.

    Just my WAG: If the Air is released 2+ weeks from quarter’s end (early June) I suspect we’ll see a YOY gain close to 30%. If no Air until after the quarter’s end then I’d expect a sub 25% ballpark #.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 11:38 PM #5

    I prefer unit growth as the metric instead of percentage growth at this stage of the quarter.

         
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    Posted: 09 May 2011 05:45 AM #6

    I like YOY growth myself. 

    I’m thinkin’ the new iMacs and fresh MacBook Pros will keep the Mac growth rate around at least 25% YOY.  That gets us to about 4.34 million Macs for fiscal Q3 without going too far out on a limb.

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    Posted: 09 May 2011 11:32 AM #7

    Once again, Roberts resource guide and everyone else in the thread convinces me to raise estimates to 4.05 million Macs.  Another spreadsheet may convince me to go higher.

    http://www.postsateventide.com/2011/05/apple-ten-quarters-of-product-unit.html

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2011 04:36 PM #8

    Tetrachloride - 09 May 2011 02:32 PM

    Once again, Roberts resource guide and everyone else in the thread convinces me to raise estimates to 4.05 million Macs.  Another spreadsheet may convince me to go higher.

    http://www.postsateventide.com/2011/05/apple-ten-quarters-of-product-unit.html

    Mac sales are definitely moving higher and I expect strong unit sales growth in the June quarter. Education spending should be on the rebound and the recent iMac refresh will provide a lift for desktop sales.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2011 06:51 PM #9

    The problem with using historic average growth rates is that they don’t care a twit about product refreshes.  Because of that my desktop estimate may be to low.  That said I’m modeling 4.418 million Mac units for the June quarter (mostly coming from laptops).

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  • Posted: 10 May 2011 06:55 PM #10

    Gregg Thurman - 10 May 2011 09:51 PM

    The problem with using historic average growth rates is that they don’t care a twit about product refreshes.  Because of that my desktop estimate may be to low.  That said I’m modeling 4.418 million Mac units for the June quarter (mostly coming from laptops).

    Averaging the six unit estimates posted so far I get 4.250 million units (13% QoQ).  That’s pretty healthy growth at a time when PC sales are in decline.

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    Posted: 10 May 2011 08:41 PM #11

    Gregg Thurman - 10 May 2011 09:51 PM

    The problem with using historic average growth rates is that they don’t care a twit about product refreshes.  Because of that my desktop estimate may be to low.  That said I’m modeling 4.418 million Mac units for the June quarter (mostly coming from laptops).

    Yep.  The way I do Mac estimates, I look back one or two years (I do take the other quarter’s YOY growth rates into account), then I think about what’s different Mac-wise, macro-wise, etc. before “adjusting” the previous year’s YOY up or down.  A small “law of large numbers” bit of conservatism is baked in, along with a recognition of slowing PC market growth rates.

    The fiscal Q3 2010 YOY growth rate for Mac was 33%.  All things considered I think 25%+ YOY growth this quarter is very possible.

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  • Posted: 10 May 2011 09:57 PM #12

    Mav - 10 May 2011 11:41 PM

    Yep.  The way I do Mac estimates, I look back one or two years (I do take the other quarter’s YOY growth rates into account), then I think about what’s different Mac-wise, macro-wise, etc. before “adjusting” the previous year’s YOY up or down.  A small “law of large numbers” bit of conservatism is baked in, along with a recognition of slowing PC market growth rates.

    The fiscal Q3 2010 YOY growth rate for Mac was 33%.  All things considered I think 25%+ YOY growth this quarter is very possible.

    The average three year Mac Q2 - Q3 growth rate results in 27% YoY for Q3.

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    Posted: 11 May 2011 12:12 AM #13

    Exactly, I look at both YoY and QoQ to account for any seasonality (back to school).

         
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    Posted: 11 May 2011 02:23 PM #14

    I’ve generally noticed a trend that Apple pushes out new hardware ahead of an OS release.

    iMacs and MacBook Pros are out.  Developers have Lion previews to practice with.

    New releases of MacBook Airs possibly would come with Lion pre-installed, but statistically, they won’t.  Owners of those new Airs will be able to get Lion for a nominal fee or Lion install disk or flash chip included but not installed.

    Based on MacRumors Buyers Guide, a new Air might come as late as October.  But Thunderbolt awaits.  I sense pressure to get news Airs out before the end of summer.

         
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    Posted: 11 May 2011 02:59 PM #15

    I don’t know if there are hard stats to back this up, but my impression is that Mac growth has been primarily driven by demand in the consumer & education markets. The enterprise & government markets have still not fully embraced Macs as they have iPhones.

    What if that begins to change? Instead of 20-30% YOY growth, could that spike to 40-50%?

    The Mac has become a viable choice for enterprise users, agrees premium reseller, Square Group chief, Darren King. “We see lots of interest from enterprise customers looking to use Apple under employee choice schemes, as part of change management (to enhance the employee IT experience).”

    Apple’s iPhone and iPad have caused a sea change in the way corporates regard its platforms. Huge interest among consumer users means Apple’s technology has been “consumerized”, if you will.

    “Apple is cool and many corporate staff use Mac at home or at least have iPhones/iPads,” King explains. There’s other, more tangible benefits, “It’s easy to use, easy to deploy, easy to update/manage, energy efficient and easy to support. Total cost of ownership (TCO) for a Mac vs a comparable Wintel device over 3-4 years is actually lower!” King claims.

    ? A recent Enterprise Desktop Alliance survey of IT admins predicts Apple’s could become the fastest-growing platform in the enterprise this year.

    ? In 2009 the Mac accounted for 3.3 percent of enterprise systems, in 2011 the platform is now expected to hit 5.2 percent of enterprise systems and 25 percent of new systems added to enterprise set-ups.

    The scene is set for massive market expansion.

    http://blogs.computerworld.com/18253/apples_other_growing_platform_the_mac