June Quarter iPad Unit Sales (Archive)

  • Posted: 08 May 2011 06:52 PM

    The iPad entered the June quarter with severely constrained supplies of the iPad 2. We will see 9 million iPad units flow out Apple’s doors or will supply constraints continue to restrict the availability of product and Apple’s ability to meet demand?

    [ Edited: 10 June 2011 12:37 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 08 May 2011 07:13 PM #1

    Too soon to tell based on what I’m reading about LG’s early inability to make a panel without light bleed.  They’re rumored to have fixed the problem.  However, these production ramps do not turn on a dime.  Samsung is the other supplier for panels.  My early WAG is 7.5 - 8M units for the June quarter.

         
  • Posted: 08 May 2011 07:19 PM #2

    Mercel - 08 May 2011 10:13 PM

    Too soon to tell based on what I’m reading about LG’s early inability to make a panel without light bleed.  They’re rumored to have fixed the problem.  However, these production ramps do not turn on a dime.  Samsung is the other supplier for panels.  My early WAG is 7.5 - 8M units for the June quarter.

    Apple has plenty of demand to satisfy and a global channel to supply. Production is the only practical limit on unit sales in the June quarter.

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 07:21 PM #3

    Tim Cook On iPad 2

    ?We?re still amazed that we are still heavily backlogged, not only at the end of the quarter but also up to date. However, I can tell you that I?m extremely pleased with the progress of the manufacturing ramp and we were so confident that we rolled out 25 additional countries at the end of last month, and we are shipping to an additional 13 countries next week, and we?re planning to add even more countries through the quarter. So I?m very confident that we can produce a very large number of iPads for the quarter. Whether that will be enough to meet demand, I don?t know. Demand has been staggering and I?m not going to predict when supply and demand will come into balance. I can only be confident on supply side.?

    http://theapplegoogle.com/2011/04/tim-cook-speaks-ipad-2-android-steve-jobs/

    Also, my guess is due to a shipping bottleneck that some international iPad orders were pushed back from Q2 to Q3.

    My guess is 10,000,000.

         
  • Posted: 08 May 2011 08:07 PM #4

    Bold predictions considering how off most have been when it comes to quarterly iPad sales. I’m guessing 6- 10 million, which is an embarrassingly large range.

    Bottom line, we really don’t know but it will be good to great on a YOY basis.

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    Posted: 08 May 2011 10:49 PM #5

    I’ll be VERY happy with any # over 9m and very disappointed with a # under 8m. My WAG is 9m.

      cheers to the longs
          JohnG

         
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    Posted: 09 May 2011 05:52 AM #6

    As with last quarter, those “tells” by Cook and Oppenheimer (this time just Cook) are important.

    Last quarter, it was a CC indication of substantially more than 16.2 million iPhones to be sold in fiscal Q2.

    This quarter, “large number” is a surefire sign of over 7.5 million iPads projected to be sold in fiscal Q3.  But I’m very hesitant to be more “bullish” on iPad on account of pretty much everyone, including WS, being too high on iPad last quarter.  I’ll need data points (total so far:  none, really) or conviction before I’d estimate an iPad number much higher than 8.5 million.  Around the same number as AT, but with Mercel’s caution.

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  • Posted: 10 May 2011 04:34 PM #7

    Tetrachloride - 08 May 2011 10:21 PM

    My guess is 10,000,000.

    Tetra, that’s quite an ambitious estimate. What’s your revenue number for the quarter?

         
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    Posted: 10 May 2011 05:03 PM #8

    I decided to moderate my iPad number down to 9200.

    Today’s estimate Gross Revenue = 26.8 B   , EPS 6.56.   

    I’d be willing to go as high as 27.5,  6.86 and still be in the “normal” range of estimates.

    The super-bull case is 7.20.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2011 07:02 PM #9

    I have struggled with my iPad estimate.  Given that I think Apple’s internal earnings estimate is ~$6.79, I let my formulas calculate everything except iPad units.  I then adjusted them until I got earnings approximating Apple’s internal number - 5,633,000.  I have no confidence in that number, but post it just the same (I’m ready to take a virtual beating from the group for it).

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    Posted: 10 May 2011 08:35 PM #10

    I adjust my models for CC comments.  Tim Cook has essentially called a 7.5+ million iPad quarter in my book.  He would not have said “very large number” otherwise, IMHO.

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    Posted: 11 May 2011 02:03 AM #11

    I am at 7.2 mil and considering that is over 100% YOY, that is a large number. Production ramp and component supply being the main factors for this thinking.

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  • Posted: 11 May 2011 06:30 AM #12

    I don’t have a crystal ball.  I leave that to those of you that do it so well.  However, Tim Cook’s comments on iPad sales, the subsequent interview comments to Ms Huberty and the continued expansion into new countries makes me believe that this Q will be a record sandbag by AAPL mgmt.

         
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    Posted: 11 May 2011 04:19 PM #13

    I don’t know how reliable these numbers are and whether they hold true in the U.S. or Asia. It might be useful in estimating iPad ASP.

    Research firm Context (via V3) compiled a report about the state of the tablet market in western Europe, and found that the 64 GB 3G iPad 2 has accounted for a third of all iPad 2 sales since launch. The next closest model is the 16 GB WiFi-only iPad 2, which was responsible for 22 percent of all sales.

    http://gigaom.com/apple/most-popular-ipad-2-model-is-also-the-most-expensive/

         
  • Posted: 11 May 2011 05:37 PM #14

    Tetrachloride - 08 May 2011 10:21 PM

    Tim Cook On iPad 2

    ?We?re still amazed that we are still heavily backlogged, not only at the end of the quarter but also up to date. However, I can tell you that I?m extremely pleased with the progress of the manufacturing ramp and we were so confident that we rolled out 25 additional countries at the end of last month, and we are shipping to an additional 13 countries next week, and we?re planning to add even more countries through the quarter. So I?m very confident that we can produce a very large number of iPads for the quarter. Whether that will be enough to meet demand, I don?t know. Demand has been staggering and I?m not going to predict when supply and demand will come into balance. I can only be confident on supply side.?

    http://theapplegoogle.com/2011/04/tim-cook-speaks-ipad-2-android-steve-jobs/

    Also, my guess is due to a shipping bottleneck that some international iPad orders were pushed back from Q2 to Q3.

    My guess is 10,000,000.

    Tetrachloride ,I am more for an 8,5 million due to shipping bottleneck altough Tim Cook’s words make me think that we might be nearer to 10 million that 8,5 million
    anyways more than 7 million would be magnificent :D raspberry

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  • Posted: 12 May 2011 05:56 PM #15

    Gregg Thurman - 10 May 2011 10:02 PM

    I have struggled with my iPad estimate.  Given that I think Apple’s internal earnings estimate is ~$6.79, I let my formulas calculate everything except iPad units.  I then adjusted them until I got earnings approximating Apple’s internal number - 5,633,000.  I have no confidence in that number, but post it just the same (I’m ready to take a virtual beating from the group for it).

    Gregg:

    We all struggle with this number. In my view the issue plain and simple is supply, not demand. We’ll have some clues on supply as we head into the latter half of the June quarter.