June Quarter iPhone Sales

  • Posted: 08 May 2011 06:59 PM

    If last year’s awkward iPhone transition serves as a lesson, Apple isn’t talking up the iPhone 5 to avoid skewing iPhone unit sales ahead of the anticipated annual product refresh.

    Apple hit the brakes on 3GS shipments last year following the much-publicized iPhone 4 caper. There are no leaked photos of the iPhone 5 and no misplaced prototypes. The iPhone is also in its first full quarter of release on the Verizon network. In the June quarter one year ago iPhone unit sales rose 61% in a year that averaged a 90% unit sales gain. Last year’s June quarter makes for a much easier compare this year.

    What should we expect in June quarter iPhone unit sales. Apple reached channel supply goals on the iPhone 4 in the March quarter and any manufacturing transitions will impact the pace of June quarter iPhone 4 shipments.

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 07:52 PM #1

    I’ve posted a 16,000,000 sales estimate, tho 17 m is in my ballpark. 

    1) iPhone 5 jittters ? 
    2) Supply of white iPhones sufficient ? 
    3) VZ iPhone sales rocket is moderating
    4) Korea and China looking good, but would be nice to have more data or media reports.
    5) Tim Cook said that channel inventory was 4-6 weeks.  Apple sold 1.41 million iPhones per week in Jan-Mar for 18.65 m in total.

         
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    Posted: 08 May 2011 11:59 PM #2

    If ASP of iPad is 610 and iphone is 650, then 9384 iPhones = 10000 iPads for gross revenue.

    Want to make a deal ?

         
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    Posted: 09 May 2011 02:24 AM #3

    Im picking 19 million.

    I think the “purchasers waiting for iphone 5” factor is overestimated.

    The fact that the iphone 3GS is the 2nd most popular selling phone in the US is very telling, especially since its only available on 1 carrier.

    Over the first 3 iterations of iphone, the primary purchases were mostly being made by well informed early adopters - early adopters who delayed purchasers in the quarter leading up to the new phone introdution, thereby depressing June quarter sales.

    However at some point over the last 18 months, the smartphone market entered the early majority stage, which consists mostly of less informed consumers who pay less attention to expected product upgrades.

    In combination with this, the iphone and similar smartphones, have started reaching points of diminishing returns in relation to technical improvements. For the majority of consumers, improvements in screen resolution, processor & GPU power, cameras are becoming increasingly hard to recognise, you dont need to wait for the next iphone - its already capable of almost everything one would wish it to do - outside of a cosmetic difference the only marketable difference for a new model would be an additional technology being enabled (4G data speed, NFC, unknown mystery tech ???).

    That said, apple can still differentiate with iphone 5 exclusive software features (another unknown), or by increasing the phone storage to 32/64 gig and leaving the bottom end iphone 4 at 16gig (which would ensure a smooth switch for the iphone 4, unlike the iphone 3GS which dropped from 16/32 gig models to a 8gig model).

    But my overall point is: for the large majority of iphone purchasers - the upgrade cycle does not feature in their purchase plans.

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    Posted: 09 May 2011 03:48 AM #4

    At _least_ 17 million units.

    I know about the guidance AT, but keep in mind that SK Telecom and other new iPhone 4 markets will help balance “maturing” iPhone 4-cycle markets (of which Verizon may be one, it’s too early to tell from the Chitikameter).  I don’t put much stock in the white iPhone 4’s incremental sales contribution as yet. 

    Anyway, there’s no real need to “hold out” because the iPhone 4 really is a great product, and many “new” handsets, with the exception of 4G which isn’t exactly new, still use “last year’s CPU” tech, which keeps iPhone 4 relatively fresh in comparison.  I can’t think of too many good reasons why iPhone 4 sales continue to accelerate despite the world “knowing”/expecting iPhone 5 between June and September, which would put iPhone 4 at “mid-cycle” or worse.

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    Posted: 09 May 2011 06:30 AM #5

    One thing to note is that the smartphone market over the June quarter is still growing. By the end of the quarter it will be measurably larger than where we started the last quarter. For apple to maintain its marketshare in smartphones (which all surveys seem to be pointing to), then apple MUST sell more units sequentially over the march quarter.

    That’s my reasoning behind my 19 million+ iPhone units - anything less would mean apple is losing smartphone marketshare (against all evidence to the contrary so far).

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    Posted: 09 May 2011 11:29 AM #6

    okay, I’m convinced by Mav and IOSW. 

    I’ve kicked up my estimate to 17 million for now.  I may attempt some analyses based on Net Applications data, even tho it is skewed.

         
  • Posted: 09 May 2011 03:23 PM #7

    Please also consider the impact of the iPhone 4 as the legacy entry device for the line. Following the anticipated iPhone 5 refresh, the iPhone 4 will hold its own and contribute to gains in unit sales.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2011 04:38 PM #8

    Remember, too, the Verizon iPhone is only now in its first full quarter of release.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2011 06:45 PM #9

    Using average growth from Q2 to Q3 for the past three years I get 16.63% sequential growth, or 21 million units for the June quarter.

    Sales history of the last 4 quarters:
    Q3/10 8.4 million
    Q4/10 14.1 million
    Q1/11 16.2 million
    Q2/11 18.6 million

    My sources inside ATT tell me that March quarter sales are the lowest of the calendar year.

    I think that 21 million is easily defended when you consider greater exposure in China (more Apple Stores), CDMA version and a white model.

    With 4 - 6 weeks inventory and a late June launch, Apple could still be in iPhone4 production through mid May, clear inventory, launch to big crowds, and make 21 million.  Even if the transition hit some bumps I think iPhone volume will exceed 18 million units.

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    Posted: 10 May 2011 08:46 PM #10

    iOSWeekly - 09 May 2011 09:30 AM

    One thing to note is that the smartphone market over the June quarter is still growing. By the end of the quarter it will be measurably larger than where we started the last quarter. For apple to maintain its marketshare in smartphones (which all surveys seem to be pointing to), then apple MUST sell more units sequentially over the march quarter.

    That’s my reasoning behind my 19 million+ iPhone units - anything less would mean apple is losing smartphone marketshare (against all evidence to the contrary so far).

    In that case, Apple may well “lose” marketshare in the June quarter, given the age of its smartphone offering.  Them’s the breaks when you only have one new model a year, but it doesn’t matter much to me despite any misguided gloating from the Fandroid Army (since there’s more than enough greenfield for both Android and iOS at the moment).  YOY growth will always be my primary concern, and iPhone sales won’t hit hyperdrive (say, 25-30 million units/quarter) until iPhone 5 is available in quantity, and with big carriers like China Mobile.

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    Posted: 10 May 2011 10:31 PM #11

    Mav - 10 May 2011 11:46 PM
    iOSWeekly - 09 May 2011 09:30 AM

    One thing to note is that the smartphone market over the June quarter is still growing. By the end of the quarter it will be measurably larger than where we started the last quarter. For apple to maintain its marketshare in smartphones (which all surveys seem to be pointing to), then apple MUST sell more units sequentially over the march quarter.

    That’s my reasoning behind my 19 million+ iPhone units - anything less would mean apple is losing smartphone marketshare (against all evidence to the contrary so far).

    In that case, Apple may well “lose” marketshare in the June quarter, given the age of its smartphone offering.  Them’s the breaks when you only have one new model a year, but it doesn’t matter much to me despite any misguided gloating from the Fandroid Army (since there’s more than enough greenfield for both Android and iOS at the moment).  YOY growth will always be my primary concern, and iPhone sales won’t hit hyperdrive (say, 25-30 million units/quarter) until iPhone 5 is available in quantity, and with big carriers like China Mobile.

    last year Q3 iphone unit sales experienced a small dip sequentially (-4%), but in the previous years Q3 unit sales were up sequentially by a large amount (+37%).

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    Posted: 11 May 2011 01:57 AM #12

    adamthompson3232 - 09 May 2011 05:30 AM
    iOSWeekly - 09 May 2011 05:24 AM

    Im picking 19 million.

    I think the “purchasers waiting for iphone 5” factor is overestimated.

    The fact that the iphone 3GS is the 2nd most popular selling phone in the US is very telling, especially since its only available on 1 carrier.

    Over the first 3 iterations of iphone, the primary purchases were mostly being made by well informed early adopters - early adopters who delayed purchasers in the quarter leading up to the new phone introdution, thereby depressing June quarter sales.

    However at some point over the last 18 months, the smartphone market entered the early majority stage, which consists mostly of less informed consumers who pay less attention to expected product upgrades.

    In combination with this, the iphone and similar smartphones, have started reaching points of diminishing returns in relation to technical improvements. For the majority of consumers, improvements in screen resolution, processor & GPU power, cameras are becoming increasingly hard to recognise, you dont need to wait for the next iphone - its already capable of almost everything one would wish it to do - outside of a cosmetic difference the only marketable difference for a new model would be an additional technology being enabled (4G data speed, NFC, unknown mystery tech ???).

    That said, apple can still differentiate with iphone 5 exclusive software features (another unknown), or by increasing the phone storage to 32/64 gig and leaving the bottom end iphone 4 at 16gig (which would ensure a smooth switch for the iphone 4, unlike the iphone 3GS which dropped from 16/32 gig models to a 8gig model).

    But my overall point is: for the large majority of iphone purchasers - the upgrade cycle does not feature in their purchase plans.

    Apple’s revenue guidance and statements regarding iPad (“a very large number”) practically guarantee a sequential decline in iPhone sales. Of course, I could be wrong, but I can’t see any way iPhone sales won’t be down 1-2 million units.


    Not to pour cold water on your idea Adam, but your idea of a “large number” and Apple’s is probably quite different. (I am 7.2 mil ipads) I am at 18.1 mil iphones for the qtr. Production is at full speed with an equilibrium in the channel. The channel itself has roughly 7.5 mil units. That other 10.5 to me does not seem that hard to reach to me. China, please, no slow down there. VZ on board and a little white phone. I better stop before I talk myself into a higher number.  :-D

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    Posted: 11 May 2011 08:21 AM #13

    Referring to DT’s post at his eventide blog, I think it’s important to note that over the last 2 years iPhone unit sales have been up sequentially every quarter, with the only exception being a slight fall in last years Q3, when news of the leaked iPhone 4 garnered mainstream media attention and undoubtedly slowed sales before it’s introduction.

    Unless there is another masssive leak this quarter, I don’t think we will see any sequential decline in iPhone unit sales, especially with the verizon iPhone, white iPhone, and most importantly the general growth of the smartphone market.

    Slightly off topic, but I’m surprised about what seems to be a general consensus surrounding the non-release of a new iPhone model in June, I think apple has pulled a propaganda coup here with ‘official leaks’ to certain publications. What better way to reverse last years sales slowdown with the leak of the iPhone 4, than by doing the opposite and convincing everyone you won’t be releasing a new phone in the period you have done it in for the last 4 years (and then ‘surprising’ everyone by releasing a new phone right on schedule).

    (can’t make up my mind whether it is a iPhone Air or iPhone 5 we will see next though)

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  • Posted: 11 May 2011 09:07 AM #14

    Gregg Thurman - 10 May 2011 09:45 PM

    Using average growth from Q2 to Q3 for the past three years I get 16.63% sequential growth, or 21 million units for the June quarter.

    Sales history of the last 4 quarters:
    Q3/10 8.4 million
    Q4/10 14.1 million
    Q1/11 16.2 million
    Q2/11 18.6 million

    My sources inside ATT tell me that March quarter sales are the lowest of the calendar year.

    I think that 21 million is easily defended when you consider greater exposure in China (more Apple Stores), CDMA version and a white model.

    With 4 - 6 weeks inventory and a late June launch, Apple could still be in iPhone4 production through mid May, clear inventory, launch to big crowds, and make 21 million.  Even if the transition hit some bumps I think iPhone volume will exceed 18 million units.


    With my estimates of Iphone at 16,35 Million Units ,
    I m feeling like a ultra conservative Wall Street Analyst ........ :(

    I believe White Iphone 4 and Inventory could give a big boost and near it 18 to 19 million , that adds more than 1,3Bn$  in Revenue smile :D :D :D <3

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    Posted: 11 May 2011 09:09 AM #15

    iOSWeekly - 11 May 2011 11:21 AM

    Referring to DT’s post at his eventide blog, I think it’s important to note that over the last 2 years iPhone unit sales have been up sequentially every quarter, with the only exception being a slight fall in last years Q3, when news of the leaked iPhone 4 garnered mainstream media attention and undoubtedly slowed sales before it’s introduction.

    Unless there is another masssive leak this quarter, I don’t think we will see any sequential decline in iPhone unit sales, especially with the verizon iPhone, white iPhone, and most importantly the general growth of the smartphone market.

    Slightly off topic, but I’m surprised about what seems to be a general consensus surrounding the non-release of a new iPhone model in June, I think apple has pulled a propaganda coup here with ‘official leaks’ to certain publications. What better way to reverse last years sales slowdown with the leak of the iPhone 4, than by doing the opposite and convincing everyone you won’t be releasing a new phone in the period you have done it in for the last 4 years (and then ‘surprising’ everyone by releasing a new phone right on schedule).

    (can’t make up my mind whether it is a iPhone Air or iPhone 5 we will see next though)

    You can count me in the crowd expecting the release will not occur in June.  I think Apple is waiting till Sept.  From Omnivision’s last CC. 

    Recently, at the Mobile World Conference in Barcelona, we announced our first image sensor, built on our OmniBSI-2 technology, the OV8830 image sensor. The OV8830 device is our most sophisticated 8-megapixel image sensor to-date. The advanced feature offered by this device enables full HD video. We set a new standard for the laterally growing video-centric smartphone market.

    We remain on schedule, as we execute the planned tradition from sample volume to mass production of the OV8830 in the second half of calendar 2011.

    Another key development in the smartphone market is the migration to an 8-megapixel resolution sensor the primary camera. We have already been shipping this product resolution to the smartphone market for several months. However, the volumes will grow significantly in the second half of this calendar year and 8-megapixel sensors will become the product of choice by next year.

    As Shaw noted earlier, we recently announced at the Mobile World Conference in Barcelona, Spain, the launch of an 8-megapixel sensor, the OV8830, which is based on our next generation BSI technology, OmniBSI-2. We have targeted the 8830 for mass production by this year?s fall season and have already secured design wins with multiple Tier 1 OEM manufacturers.