June Quarter iPhone Sales

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    Posted: 11 May 2011 11:43 AM #16

    Horace has 2 new iPhone posts.  The one at the top of his website is “Measuring iPhone Progress” which counters the FUD of the swine Blodgett.

    http://www.asymco.com/2011/05/11/measuring-iphone-progress/

    This graph could use some AFB loquaciousness on unit sales projections for Q3.



    Then a 2nd post “A rising tide does not lift leaking ships” shows that Nokia is crumbling.  http://www.asymco.com/2011/05/11/a-rising-tide-does-not-lift-leaking-ships/


         
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    Posted: 11 May 2011 02:34 PM #17

    Tetrachloride - 11 May 2011 02:43 PM

    Horace has 2 new iPhone posts.  The one at the top of his website is “Measuring iPhone Progress” which counters the FUD of the swine Blodgett.

    That was a great blog post! The graph alone refutes the FUD.

    I think the lower trend line (iPhone share of all cell phones) is more significant. It takes into account the fact that eventually all cell phones will be defined as smartphones. The definition of “smartphone” is currently so vague that it’s practically meaningless.

         
  • Posted: 11 May 2011 04:11 PM #18

    The answer is really quite simple: As many as they can manufacture.

         
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    Posted: 11 May 2011 05:52 PM #19

    Ross Edwards - 11 May 2011 07:11 PM

    The answer is really quite simple: As many as they can manufacture.

    I think that is an interesting conjecture, but for the first time Apple claimed they pretty much had iPhone 4 in a supply demand balance excluding the White iPhone 4.  We can assume the manufacturing is capable of over 18M units, but IMO I dont see a capacity expansion at the end of a product cycle. We may get a good look at the demand this qtr since for once we shouldn’t have all the supply constraints.  The outlier is what is said at WWDC.

         
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    Posted: 11 May 2011 06:50 PM #20

    good insight, pats.

         
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    Posted: 11 May 2011 07:27 PM #21

    pats - 11 May 2011 08:52 PM
    Ross Edwards - 11 May 2011 07:11 PM

    The answer is really quite simple: As many as they can manufacture.

    I think that is an interesting conjecture, but for the first time Apple claimed they pretty much had iPhone 4 in a supply demand balance excluding the White iPhone 4.  We can assume the manufacturing is capable of over 18M units, but IMO I dont see a capacity expansion at the end of a product cycle. We may get a good look at the demand this qtr since for once we shouldn’t have all the supply constraints.  The outlier is what is said at WWDC.

    Why do you say its the end of a product cycle? Remember the iphone 4 will still be selling for at least another 12 months (unless its replaced by a new low end iphone).

    The iphone 3GS is the 2nd biggest selling smartphone in the US (after the iphone 4) and that is coming up on its 2 year birthday next month.

    Once it replaces the 3GS as the entry level iPhone, I expect the iphone 4 to sell more units than the 3GS currently does seeing as it is also available on CDMA carriers like verizon (which the 3GS is not).

    Apple also staggers the release of new iphone models, with some markets waiting 6 months or longer after the US introduction of a new model. These markets will continue to sell the iphone 4 as the premium version (I think this is how apple clears its higher capicity devices after they are refreshed with new models).

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  • Posted: 12 May 2011 02:47 AM #22

    iOSWeekly - 11 May 2011 11:21 AM

    Slightly off topic, but I’m surprised about what seems to be a general consensus surrounding the non-release of a new iPhone model in June, I think apple has pulled a propaganda coup here with ‘official leaks’ to certain publications. What better way to reverse last years sales slowdown with the leak of the iPhone 4, than by doing the opposite and convincing everyone you won’t be releasing a new phone in the period you have done it in for the last 4 years (and then ‘surprising’ everyone by releasing a new phone right on schedule).

    LOL I’ve been thinking along those lines myself.

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    Posted: 12 May 2011 03:03 AM #23

    “Consensus” by people who have no clue what’s going to happen.  Gotta love the up-is-down world we live in these days.

    They appear to have been right about iOS though, so I have to give them credit for that.

    Until Apple can prove it’s able to launch a new iOS product that’s not an iPod touch or AppleTV in FORCE (iPad - not yet, iPhone 4? - didn’t contribute that much at launch), meaning several million within a week or so, the exact release schedule isn’t likely to have a particularly profound impact on the fiscal Q3 results.  I may be inclined to lift my iPhone number by a couple million if iPhone 5 comes out in June, but it really all depends on Apple’s ability to move product at launch.

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  • Posted: 12 May 2011 05:58 PM #24

    Gregg Thurman - 12 May 2011 05:47 AM
    iOSWeekly - 11 May 2011 11:21 AM

    Slightly off topic, but I’m surprised about what seems to be a general consensus surrounding the non-release of a new iPhone model in June, I think apple has pulled a propaganda coup here with ‘official leaks’ to certain publications. What better way to reverse last years sales slowdown with the leak of the iPhone 4, than by doing the opposite and convincing everyone you won’t be releasing a new phone in the period you have done it in for the last 4 years (and then ‘surprising’ everyone by releasing a new phone right on schedule).

    LOL I’ve been thinking along those lines myself.

    The leaked iPhone 4 photos skewed demand and Apple slammed the brakes on 3GS shipments last June quarter. The prior-year year iPhone unit sales is a low compare leading to outsized unit sales growth this quarter by comparison.

         
  • Posted: 12 May 2011 06:57 PM #25

    meaning several million within a week or so,


    With the launch of a new or updated product, having a million or two ready to go might bite you in the ass if an unanticipated problem presents calling for a fix.

    Roll out and ramp up.

    Of course with the iPad they didn’t have a big enough ramp.

         
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    Posted: 12 May 2011 10:45 PM #26

    I have iPhones at 18,900 ... a very slight sequential quarter uptick.  YOY is 125% at that number..  That’s incredible growth..

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    Posted: 12 May 2011 11:09 PM #27

    1. I think the QoQ is more powerful this time than the YoY, in absence of iPhone 5 rumors.   
    2. VZ iPhone at Chitika is looking fine.
    3. White iPhone in China is also good.
    4. Availability in US Stores is excellent.
    ——-
    If economy picks up in the US and Europe, hurray even more.

    The Jun 1st Net Applications numbers are next up on my Apple calendar.

         
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    Posted: 12 May 2011 11:21 PM #28

    danthemason - 12 May 2011 09:57 PM

    meaning several million within a week or so,


    With the launch of a new or updated product, having a million or two ready to go might bite you in the ass if an unanticipated problem presents calling for a fix.

    Roll out and ramp up.

    Of course with the iPad they didn’t have a big enough ramp.

    Yes and no.

    I was speaking in terms of quarterly sales, not recommended Apple business processes (not entirely, anyway).  I prefer a launch done right as well.

    OTOH, Apple has had well over a million ready to go if iPhone 4 (1.7 million initial sales) is any indication.  And you know Apple is planning to beat that number with iPhone 5.

    The white iPhone, hopefully, will help Apple do its QA more efficiently so there won’t be any unanticipated problems.  And on the defect rate note, that’s why the “iPhone 4GS” makes so much sense.  You don’t have to take chances with a new form factor, which is one big reason why unanticipated problems might occur.  And does anyone really need a thinner phone?

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    Posted: 13 May 2011 01:20 AM #29

    Big picture question again.  What is the range of the ballpark ?

    Among posts seen this month,  17-19 million is common.  Anybody above or below that ?

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2011 09:07 PM #30

    Treehouse - 13 May 2011 04:20 AM

    Big picture question again.  What is the range of the ballpark ?

    Among posts seen this month,  17-19 million is common.  Anybody above or below that ?

    According to DT’s blog post iPhone sales last year were 8.398 million units. Are you expecting another 100% increase in sales?