June Quarter iPhone Sales

  • Posted: 15 May 2011 09:51 PM #31

    Sparky - 16 May 2011 12:07 AM
    Treehouse - 13 May 2011 04:20 AM

    Big picture question again.  What is the range of the ballpark ?

    Among posts seen this month,  17-19 million is common.  Anybody above or below that ?

    According to DT’s blog post iPhone sales last year were 8.398 million units. Are you expecting another 100% increase in sales?

    The June quarter this year may represent a departure from iPhone unit sales trends of the past due to an expanding global presence and availability on both of the nation’s biggest cell services providers.

         
  • Posted: 16 May 2011 02:26 PM #32

    Treehouse - 13 May 2011 04:20 AM

    Big picture question again.  What is the range of the ballpark ?

    Among posts seen this month,  17-19 million is common.  Anybody above or below that ?


    i am slightly under at 16,35 million units , I think I might up it a bit but i believe this quarter isn’t so big from a Sales point of view specially as there aren’t real catalysts but we will see smile you ? :D

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  • Posted: 17 May 2011 07:56 PM #33

    I find it hard to believe that there will be fewer sales this quarter than last quarter.  I’ll stick my neck out and say this will be Apple’s first 20,000,000 unit iPhone quarter.

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  • Posted: 17 May 2011 11:24 PM #34

    westech - 17 May 2011 10:56 PM

    I find it hard to believe that there will be fewer sales this quarter than last quarter.  I’ll stick my neck out and say this will be Apple’s first 20,000,000 unit iPhone quarter.


    It depends on whether or not Apple puts the brakes on iPhone 4 shipments. Last year iPhone unit shipments in the June quarter were running at about a 90% YOY gain (the average more or less for the fiscal year) until Apple slammed the brakes on iPhone 3GS shipments ahead of the iPhone 4’s release, dropping the YOY unit sales gain to about 60%.

         
  • Posted: 17 May 2011 11:35 PM #35

    DawnTreader - 18 May 2011 02:24 AM
    westech - 17 May 2011 10:56 PM

    I find it hard to believe that there will be fewer sales this quarter than last quarter.  I’ll stick my neck out and say this will be Apple’s first 20,000,000 unit iPhone quarter.


    It depends on whether or not Apple puts the brakes on iPhone 4 shipments. Last year iPhone unit shipments in the June quarter were running at about a 90% YOY gain (the average more or less for the fiscal year) until Apple slammed the brakes on iPhone 3GS shipments ahead of the iPhone 4’s release, dropping the YOY unit sales gain to about 60%.

    I thought the lost iPhone 4 in the bar followed by all the info about it put the brake on sales.  A lot of people who were going to buy a 3Gs held off because of that.  Also, the announcement that the next iPhone would not happen in June threw water on people waiting for the iPhone 4s or 5.  Finally, China is just beginning to ramp up.

    We shall see.

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  • Posted: 18 May 2011 12:06 AM #36

    westech - 18 May 2011 02:35 AM
    DawnTreader - 18 May 2011 02:24 AM
    westech - 17 May 2011 10:56 PM

    I find it hard to believe that there will be fewer sales this quarter than last quarter.  I’ll stick my neck out and say this will be Apple’s first 20,000,000 unit iPhone quarter.


    It depends on whether or not Apple puts the brakes on iPhone 4 shipments. Last year iPhone unit shipments in the June quarter were running at about a 90% YOY gain (the average more or less for the fiscal year) until Apple slammed the brakes on iPhone 3GS shipments ahead of the iPhone 4’s release, dropping the YOY unit sales gain to about 60%.

    I thought the lost iPhone 4 in the bar followed by all the info about it put the brake on sales.  A lot of people who were going to buy a 3Gs held off because of that.  Also, the announcement that the next iPhone would not happen in June threw water on people waiting for the iPhone 4s or 5.  Finally, China is just beginning to ramp up.

    We shall see.

    Yep. We shall see.

    Last year Apple might have overreacted in slamming the brakes on 3GS shipments out of concern for the publicity surrounding the lost (or stolen) iPhone prototype.

    Working in Apple’s favor this quarter is it’s the first full quarter the iPhone will be available on the Verizon network and continued global expansion.

    Although it might be hard for some of us to understand, not every potential smartphone buyer around the world is sitting in the edge of their seat following the latest Apple news and product rumors. Enterprises aren’t always interested in the latest and greatest but often times more interest in a recent version of a product that has proven itself to work.  Apple has margin to spare on large enterprise orders.

         
  • Posted: 18 May 2011 12:23 AM #37

    I’ll stick with my 20 million.  It’s all a WAG because Apple is so secretive.

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    Posted: 18 May 2011 12:54 AM #38

    I’ll go north of 19 million if there’s an iPhone 4S/5/whatever launch within the June quarter.  Otherwise I’ll need to see very compelling trends from newer iPhone carriers, like Verizon.

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  • Posted: 18 May 2011 01:15 AM #39

    westech - 18 May 2011 03:23 AM

    I’ll stick with my 20 million.  It’s all a WAG because Apple is so secretive.

    I’m not going that high for the June quarter unless some persuasive data comes down the pike.

         
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    Posted: 18 May 2011 01:29 AM #40

    19 million. 20 million if we see a new iphone before the end of quarter.

    Reasons why:

    - iphone sales Q2 to Q3 average from last 3 years is positive sequential growth
    - a larger potential subscriber base (new carriers added)
    - a growing smartphone market
    - no big iphone leak to depress device sales (like gizmodo iphone leak last year)
    - a US price drop to $49 for the 3GS compared to Q3 last year (when the 3G was $99)
    - as smartphones have a more mainstream consumer market the number of purchasers who are early-adopters (or geeks) of those waiting for the iphone refresh is less, so there are less purchasers who defer purchases.
    - Nokias marketshare implosion in Europe

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  • Posted: 18 May 2011 09:24 AM #41

    adamthompson3232 - 18 May 2011 03:53 AM
    westech - 18 May 2011 03:23 AM

    I’ll stick with my 20 million.  It’s all a WAG because Apple is so secretive.

    Based on Apple’s revenue guidance of $23B and TC saying they would build a “very large number” of iPads, it’s almost impossible that iPhone units will be up sequentially. I am estimating 17.03M units for the quarter.

    Why do you believe that iPad production will impact iPhone production?  Do they use the same equipment?  Is it a shortage of components that may be common to both?  Labor shortage?  Something else?

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  • Posted: 18 May 2011 09:25 AM #42

    Oops.  iPod should be iPhone.  Sorry.

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    Posted: 18 May 2011 09:30 AM #43

    Digitimes has update on production for iPhone 4 and Ipad 2 for this qtr.

    Due to an inventory volume of 1.5-2 million units of iPhone 4 and the launch of iPhone 4S planned as early as September 2011, Apple has lowered its expected shipment volume of iPhone 4 for the second quarter of 2011 from 20 million units, to 17.5-18 million units consisting of 16 million units of the 3G version and 1.5-2 million units of the CDMA version, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.

    In addition, Apple was originally expected to ship 7-8 million iPad 2s in the second quarter based on sales performance in the preceding quarter, but will ship 10-10.5 million units in line with its goal of selling 35-40 million units in 2011, the sources pointed out.

         
  • Posted: 18 May 2011 10:25 AM #44

    pats - 18 May 2011 12:30 PM

    Digitimes has update on production for iPhone 4 and Ipad 2 for this qtr.

    Due to an inventory volume of 1.5-2 million units of iPhone 4 and the launch of iPhone 4S planned as early as September 2011, Apple has lowered its expected shipment volume of iPhone 4 for the second quarter of 2011 from 20 million units, to 17.5-18 million units consisting of 16 million units of the 3G version and 1.5-2 million units of the CDMA version, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.

    In addition, Apple was originally expected to ship 7-8 million iPad 2s in the second quarter based on sales performance in the preceding quarter, but will ship 10-10.5 million units in line with its goal of selling 35-40 million units in 2011, the sources pointed out.

    Thanks.  I missed that.  So are they starting to build an inventory of the iPhone 4S?

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    Posted: 18 May 2011 10:34 AM #45

    westech - 18 May 2011 01:25 PM
    pats - 18 May 2011 12:30 PM

    Digitimes has update on production for iPhone 4 and Ipad 2 for this qtr.

    Due to an inventory volume of 1.5-2 million units of iPhone 4 and the launch of iPhone 4S planned as early as September 2011, Apple has lowered its expected shipment volume of iPhone 4 for the second quarter of 2011 from 20 million units, to 17.5-18 million units consisting of 16 million units of the 3G version and 1.5-2 million units of the CDMA version, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.

    In addition, Apple was originally expected to ship 7-8 million iPad 2s in the second quarter based on sales performance in the preceding quarter, but will ship 10-10.5 million units in line with its goal of selling 35-40 million units in 2011, the sources pointed out.

    Thanks.  I missed that.  So are they starting to build an inventory of the iPhone 4S?

    The inventory is for the iPhone 4.  They added inventory last qtr according to the CC

    We ended the quarter with about 5.2 million iPhones in channel inventory, a sequential increase of about 1.7 million to support new carrier launches and existing channel partners. This placed us within our target range of 4 to 6 weeks of iPhone channel inventory.

    What Digitimes is claiming is they are lowering iPhone 4 orders in anticipation of the iPhone 4S start, which would be pretty logical since Apple has all the sales info and launch info. Assuming they start to bring down the channel inventory this qtr if they are building 18M we should have outstanding YOY growth again this qtr.