AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 05 June 2011 04:33 PM

    It’s time to start over. WWDC opens tomorrow. Will the announcements at Apple’s annual conference boost the share price?

    [ Edited: 10 June 2011 09:57 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 04:40 PM #1

    Not really (speaking in intraday terms), not without a surprise.

    But I don’t think AAPL will sell off either.  iOS has been baking in the oven for 3 months longer than usual between iterations, and Lion will help lower the anxiety barrier for a considerable number of consumers who are finding themselves most comfortable with an iOS-like interface.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 05 June 2011 04:45 PM #2

    Hope springs eternal, particularly when a WWDC is centered around software.  The hard truth is that the media can’t distill the goodness of Lion or iOS5 as easily as a new phone (which I do not expect).

    Still, there’s lots of anticipation, including some noise about the chances for “one more thing.”  AAPL sorely needs something, at least in the short term.  I am 50/50 we will get some kind of catalyst.  Whether it holds will depend on its strength and the overall market.

    Contrary to what others have said, I believe Steve Jobs is acutely aware of stock valuation, but his time horizon is longer than those of us who’ve taken our lumps holding options.

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 05:24 PM #3

    This pic was sent to me today, I thought I would share. This is a pic of SEAL team 6, gives me chills just thinking about them busting through the door in the middle of the night. I will say this, they have always been hero’s to me, but it was not to long ago that some of these guys were in serious trouble for slapping a terrorist. Killing is OK.  tongue laugh

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 06:21 PM #4

    mbeauch - 05 June 2011 08:24 PM

    This pic was sent to me today, I thought I would share. This is a pic of SEAL team 6, gives me chills just thinking about them busting through the door in the middle of the night. I will say this, they have always been hero’s to me, but it was not to long ago that some of these guys were in serious trouble for slapping a terrorist. Killing is OK.  tongue laugh

    Where is that super dog that went in with these guys? With all the dog avatars we have around here, he (or she) deserves some credit too.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 06:24 PM #5

    “Charging a man with murder in this place was like handing out speeding tickets in the Indy 500…...

    If that’s the way Killgore fought the War I wonder what they really had against Kurtz it wasn’t just murder and insanity ...There was enough of that to go around for everybody….”

    Apocalypse Now…..not much has changed.

    Back on topic….I think were overdue a “Just One More Thing!”

    [ Edited: 05 June 2011 06:33 PM by aaplcrazie ]

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    Lieutenant Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company…

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 07:18 PM #6

    <moved to seperate thread>

    [ Edited: 05 June 2011 09:50 PM by Burgess ]

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 09:13 PM #7

    My official prediction for the week: I have NO flippin idea!!!

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 09:20 PM #8

    The weekly game of using common stock to get options to price at max pain is getting old - fast… Now that folks on the yahoo msg board know about it - how much longer can it last?

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 09:37 PM #9

    Nagrani - 06 June 2011 12:20 AM

    The weekly game of using common stock to get options to price at max pain is getting old - fast… Now that folks on the yahoo msg board know about it - how much longer can it last?

    Forever, so long as retail investors keep buying options. And based on what I have been reading here, that isn’t stopping anytime soon.

    It’s like saying, “We’re on to you starving wild pitbulls wanting to eat our porkchop underwear,” then going back into their kennel wearing more porkchop underwear, murmuring, “this can’t last, we’re onto you little bastards.”

    Kind of like how people still play Roulette and slot machines.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
  • Posted: 05 June 2011 10:55 PM #10

    JDSoCal - 06 June 2011 12:37 AM
    Nagrani - 06 June 2011 12:20 AM

    The weekly game of using common stock to get options to price at max pain is getting old - fast… Now that folks on the yahoo msg board know about it - how much longer can it last?

    Forever, so long as retail investors keep buying options. And based on what I have been reading here, that isn’t stopping anytime soon.

    It’s like saying, “We’re on to you starving wild pitbulls wanting to eat our porkchop underwear,” then going back into their kennel wearing more porkchop underwear, murmuring, “this can’t last, we’re onto you little bastards.”

    Kind of like how people still play Roulette and slot machines.

    I’m writing some calls this week:  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 11:01 PM #11

    Kevin Fox, who worked on the Newton, offers a thought which summarizes my hopes for tomorrow: iCloud will be to MobilMe what the iPad was to Newton. Here’s the link:

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/04/kevin-foxs-wwdc-wishlist/

    I don’t expect people to get it immediately. I expect a knee-jerk reaction from the market if a surprise hardware announcement isn’t made. I expect many folks will make derisive comments about the new product innovations. The iPhone and iPad attracted naysayers as well. Do any of the greybeards on this board recall the share price action after the iPad announcement? The folks at Apple are making a big deal of what’s to be announced tomorrow, and they don’t often under-deliver. If it’s really revolutionary, it may take awhile for the consequences to shake out.

         
  • Posted: 05 June 2011 11:29 PM #12

    Monday

    R4       353.55
      midpoint   351.89
    R3       350.23
      midpoint   348.57
    R2       346.91
      midpoint   346.05
    R1       345.18
      midpoint   344.39
    PP       343.59
      midpoint   342.73
    S1       341.86
      midpoint   341.07
    S2       340.27
      midpoint   338.61
    S3       336.95
      midpoint   335.29
    S4       333.63

         
  • Posted: 05 June 2011 11:38 PM #13

    Prazan - 06 June 2011 02:01 AM

    Kevin Fox, who worked on the Newton, offers a thought which summarizes my hopes for tomorrow: iCloud will be to MobilMe what the iPad was to Newton. Here’s the link:

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/04/kevin-foxs-wwdc-wishlist/

    I don’t expect people to get it immediately. I expect a knee-jerk reaction from the market if a surprise hardware announcement isn’t made. I expect many folks will make derisive comments about the new product innovations. The iPhone and iPad attracted naysayers as well. Do any of the greybeards on this board recall the share price action after the iPad announcement? The folks at Apple are making a big deal of what’s to be announced tomorrow, and they don’t often under-deliver. If it’s really revolutionary, it may take awhile for the consequences to shake out.

    $25/year is more affordable than MobileMe, but a lot of people will hit bandwidth problems. I know I will. ATT recently sent me a warning that under their new monthly allotment (in effect since May, thanks to “net neutrality”) I am close to having used up my share. I can stop streaming movies over Netflix, I suppose; but if I were to put all my music in the cloud and tried to access it with my iPad over my DSL based wi-fi network, I’d easily be paying ATT more each month for their already overpriced (and slow) service. My iPhone would be the only place I’d be safe, since I kept unlimited data.

    Can Apple use their data centers to bypass the cell networks and phone conglomerates? So far I haven’t read any indication that iCloud will do that.

         
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    Posted: 05 June 2011 11:58 PM #14

    willrob - 06 June 2011 02:38 AM
    Prazan - 06 June 2011 02:01 AM

    Kevin Fox, who worked on the Newton, offers a thought which summarizes my hopes for tomorrow: iCloud will be to MobilMe what the iPad was to Newton. Here’s the link:

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/04/kevin-foxs-wwdc-wishlist/

    I don’t expect people to get it immediately. I expect a knee-jerk reaction from the market if a surprise hardware announcement isn’t made. I expect many folks will make derisive comments about the new product innovations. The iPhone and iPad attracted naysayers as well. Do any of the greybeards on this board recall the share price action after the iPad announcement? The folks at Apple are making a big deal of what’s to be announced tomorrow, and they don’t often under-deliver. If it’s really revolutionary, it may take awhile for the consequences to shake out.

    $25/year is more affordable than MobileMe, but a lot of people will hit bandwidth problems. I know I will. ATT recently sent me a warning that under their new monthly allotment (in effect since May, thanks to “net neutrality”) I am close to having used up my share. I can stop streaming movies over Netflix, I suppose; but if I were to put all my music in the cloud and tried to access it with my iPad over my DSL based wi-fi network, I’d easily be paying ATT more each month for their already overpriced (and slow) service. My iPhone would be the only place I’d be safe, since I kept unlimited data.

    Can Apple use their data centers to bypass the cell networks and phone conglomerates? So far I haven’t read any indication that iCloud will do that.

    What percentage of folks in the U.S. are bumping against download limits? I have this problem in Europe, where I’m on DSL, but not in my place in the U.S., where I have cable. That isn’t an argument, by the way. Just a question I don’t have an answer to.

         
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    Posted: 06 June 2011 12:17 AM #15

    Usually when Apple announces something big, the markets tend to be in the middle of another hiccup.  We had a terrible week last week and now the Asian markets are not doing much better.

    Oil is still at 100.

    Many of the features that everyone talked about in iOS 5 seem pretty cool.  However the one theme everyone keeps talking about is over the air syncing or accessing one’s media.  These are two of the biggest features.  However I don’t seem them important enough for most people to go out and rush to buy the iOS 5 or a new computer.  Lion is part of a long term plan of making the cloud, iOS and the App store the trojan horses that destroy Android and Windows in the next 10 years.

    I don’t think most people want to watch their movies every where, or are really bugged in having to sync their iPHONes via a cable.

    Android is the big elephant in the room that is hurting our stock.

    Horce gave a number in his last article that confirms for me why we are going nowhere as a stock.

    There are about 20 million iPhone users and 27 million Android users in the US today. A year ago there were 12 and 6 million respectively.

    WS is afraid that Android will hurt Apple long term.  So far it has not slowed them down, but the fact that Android went from 6 million to 27 million in the US in one year is important. Especially when 50% of Apple’s revenue comes from the iPhone.  Like I have said before, Android forced Apple to deal with Verizon sooner then I thought and WS sees blood in the water.  Everyone here knows that Android has serious challenges in the future, but so did Windows but they managed to hurt Apple in the 80’s and 90’s.  Until a clear picture comes out in the mobile wars in the next two years, our stock will have issues and the p/e will kept lower then we all like.

    So I don’t think tomorrow’s event will move us much higher.  I hope we see a 4 to 6 point run up before we give half of it back by the end of the day.

    We just patiently wait for the new iPhone later this summer to really help us out.  My wife can’t wait to get one along with millions of 3Gs owners and millions more of Droid users.  Droids sold quite well in the last 12 months.  A few may upgrade but millions will jump ship as soon as the new iPhone is out.