I’ll take your $590 and raise you $5, DT!    (Whenever you can make my May 1, 2012 target not look like it’s 657, I’d appreciate it! )

DawnTreader - 12 June 2011 02:12 AM

I’ve updated my AAPL price target through the May 1, 2012.

Please see my companion posted titled Why I’m Bullish on Apple for the a comprehensive review of the factors that will fuel strong revenue and earnings growth well into FY 2012 and lead to Apple’s first $40 billion revenue quarter in FQ1 2012.

Snippet: Even at today’s multiple of 15.53 times trailing 12-month earnings Apple’s share price will reach above $425 per share by November 1st, following the release of September quarter numbers and with continued compression of the non-cash earnings multiple. There are no indications the current rate of earnings per share growth will slow between now and the end of the current fiscal year. Returning to an established valuation rage will put the the share price above $465 by that date.

What would Apple’s share price be after Jul earnings with today’s multiple of 15.53 times trailing 12-month earnings?  TIA

alice - 12 June 2011 10:27 PM

DawnTreader - 12 June 2011 02:12 AM

I’ve updated my AAPL price target through the May 1, 2012.

Please see my companion posted titled Why I’m Bullish on Apple for the a comprehensive review of the factors that will fuel strong revenue and earnings growth well into FY 2012 and lead to Apple’s first $40 billion revenue quarter in FQ1 2012.

Snippet: Even at today’s multiple of 15.53 times trailing 12-month earnings Apple’s share price will reach above $425 per share by November 1st, following the release of September quarter numbers and with continued compression of the non-cash earnings multiple. There are no indications the current rate of earnings per share growth will slow between now and the end of the current fiscal year. Returning to an established valuation rage will put the the share price above $465 by that date.

What would Apple’s share price be after Jul earnings with today’s multiple of 15.53 times trailing 12-month earnings?  TIA

$372 if AAPL reports $6.52 EPS for Q3 2011

The coiled spring is waiting on a thin, yet dense iPhone at the moment.  That’s pretty much all there is to it, I think.  Not even great fiscal Q3 earnings will do much, IMHO.

In case you missed it, here’s a chart that is the source of my bemusement:

Mercel - 12 June 2011 11:06 PM

In case you missed it, here’s a chart that is the source of my bemusement:

Notice how closely AMZN and NFLX are to consensus target prices versus Apple. Again, in these two equities retail sentiment is a big factor.

DawnTreader - 12 June 2011 11:26 PM

Notice how closely AMZN and NFLX are to consensus target prices versus Apple. Again, in these two equities retail sentiment is a big factor.

Which makes my point that AMZN and NFLX price targets are nearly realized—where is the additional upside that makes it worth holding these stocks for a year?  Not to mention the fact that the rarefied P/E ratios have more downside than upside.

Mercel - 12 June 2011 11:32 PM

DawnTreader - 12 June 2011 11:26 PM

Notice how closely AMZN and NFLX are to consensus target prices versus Apple. Again, in these two equities retail sentiment is a big factor.

Which makes my point that AMZN and NFLX price targets are nearly realized—where is the additional upside that makes it worth holding these stocks for a year?  Not to mention the fact that the rarefied P/E ratios have more downside than upside.

You’ll get no argument here. 

DawnTreader - 12 June 2011 11:26 PM

Mercel - 12 June 2011 11:06 PM

In case you missed it, here’s a chart that is the source of my bemusement:

Notice how closely AMZN and NFLX are to consensus target prices versus Apple. Again, in these two equities retail sentiment is a big factor.

depressing .....

Does this make you feel any better, owning a stock with a coiled spring? 

LOL, Mercel! Nice edited visual!

Bonkers, that should be spread around and used.

Tetrachloride - 13 June 2011 08:25 AM

Bonkers, that should be spread around and used.

You had a good idea:  PED’s running with it here:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/

Mercel - 13 June 2011 09:52 AM

Tetrachloride - 13 June 2011 08:25 AM

Bonkers, that should be spread around and used.

You had a good idea:  PED’s running with it here:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/

Excellent work. 

For those just joining us for this topic, the AFB AAPL Price Target Index and my price target forecast can be found at Posts At Eventide.

Mercel - 12 June 2011 11:32 PM

DawnTreader - 12 June 2011 11:26 PM

Notice how closely AMZN and NFLX are to consensus target prices versus Apple. Again, in these two equities retail sentiment is a big factor.

Which makes my point that AMZN and NFLX price targets are nearly realized—where is the additional upside that makes it worth holding these stocks for a year?  Not to mention the fact that the rarefied P/E ratios have more downside than upside.

agreed.. 

although I love amazon as a company..  you have to be very careful with purchasing/trading it.. 

Apple is the single best investment that I see for the rest of this year and 2013.  Granted I don’t know much..  but it IS what I see.