IPhone 5 release date September 20th?

  • Posted: 15 June 2011 09:36 PM

    So we learned today that the Apple Back to School sale starts tomorrow and goes through September 20th, 2011. 

    What do you want to bet that this is the same day as the official release of ios5 and the iPhone 5?

    Wouldn’t it make sense to finish the big sale and start a new one?  Gives 3 solid months to catch up demand before Christmas as well.  Just a hunch, what do you think?

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 June 2011 10:02 PM #1

    Speculation is fun.  We have enough noise in the sub component supply chain for me to believe that we are moving toward low rate production soon.  If we want to build the schedule let’s do a pilot run after the 4th give the production engineers time to travel to the far east after celebrating the 4th.  Initial run of two weeks takes us toward the end of July for a full rate production decision and we build inventory for four weeks.  Announce toward end of Aug and launch Friday after labor day.

         
  • Posted: 15 June 2011 10:30 PM #2

    I think we’ll need to build up the inventory for more than four weeks.  Hopefully Apple has learned lessons from previous opening days and will have ample double or triple its usual inventories.  So the rollout will happen in the US and Europe in September, Asia in October, and the rest of the world in November?  All in time for Christmas? 

    Maybe Apple will be able to keep up with demand if we were to start production in July like you say.  Fill inventories in July and August, clear out iPhone 4s in September leading up to the release. 

    Not sure how Walmart $147 fits into that for June however.  It’s almost as if Apple has already begun clearing the inventory, especially after the news today saying that the Flash parts from philips are decreasing already. 

    On a separate note, where do new Macbook Airs and Time capsules fit into the picture?

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 16 June 2011 01:53 AM #3

    From a strategic perspective I’d be surprised if Apple releases IP5 later than mid Sep. My ‘best case’ WAG is last week Aug to end of first week in Sep. Late Sep or early Oct and the impact on the Q4 would be too painful to conjecture.

    The AIRs look to be late June. Hopefully they’ll show up with at least a week to spare in the quarter. ???  If they don’t show up before the end of June then MAC sales will be relatively light for this quarter: ~4.15m would be my guess. You could add 100K for every week the AIR sells in the quarter. JMWAG.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    [ Edited: 16 June 2011 01:56 AM by johnG ]      
  • Posted: 16 June 2011 02:50 AM #4

    pats - 16 June 2011 01:02 AM

    Speculation is fun.  We have enough noise in the sub component supply chain for me to believe that we are moving toward low rate production soon.  If we want to build the schedule let’s do a pilot run after the 4th give the production engineers time to travel to the far east after celebrating the 4th.  Initial run of two weeks takes us toward the end of July for a full rate production decision and we build inventory for four weeks.  Announce toward end of Aug and launch Friday after labor day.

    I like your “speculation.” Enough time is needed to meet initial demand (including major international regions) before the end of the quarter. I really don’t see a launch date past early September.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 16 June 2011 08:09 AM #5

    We’ll know the answer by mid July when we get earnings guidance is my guess.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2011 02:24 PM #6

    ChasMac77 - 16 June 2011 11:09 AM

    We’ll know the answer by mid July when we get earnings guidance is my guess.

    Agreed, I’m sure that the next quarters guidance should give us a better understanding of how much revenue Apple plans on receiving which would indicate an August or September release. 

    I’m in agreement.  With new MB Airs probably within the next two weeks, Lion and other hardware possible in July, August is setting up to be a good month for the new iPhone.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 16 June 2011 03:38 PM #7

    johnG - 16 June 2011 04:53 AM

    From a strategic perspective I’d be surprised if Apple releases IP5 later than mid Sep. My ‘best case’ WAG is last week Aug to end of first week in Sep. Late Sep or early Oct and the impact on the Q4 would be too painful to conjecture.

    The AIRs look to be late June. Hopefully they’ll show up with at least a week to spare in the quarter. ???  If they don’t show up before the end of June then MAC sales will be relatively light for this quarter: ~4.15m would be my guess. You could add 100K for every week the AIR sells in the quarter. JMWAG.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    Agreed!  You would think Apple would prefer to release the updated iphone before all the college kids head back to school.    But, as we all know, Apple will release the iPhone 5 when they are ready.  Late August or early Sept. would at lease give us a 1 month pop in iPhone sales for fiscal Q4.  We’ll wait an see

    Signature

    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.

         
  • Posted: 16 June 2011 06:06 PM #8

    I concur with the sentiments about late August / early September timeframe. This provides time for the kids to snag the latest and greatest to brag up to their friends when they get back to college.

    It’s all about the buzz.

    Signature

    Jack

    "We’re surrounded, that simplifies our problem."

    Gen. "Chesty" Puller, USMC