The Future of RIMM

  • Posted: 21 August 2011 03:53 PM #46

    Red Shirted Ensign - 21 August 2011 06:36 PM

    RIM Rallies 100% in Sale Value as Google-Motorola Lures Samsung: Real M&A

    This article makes zero sense.

    The biggest wave of deals for mobile-phone assets in more than a decade may help Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM)?s shareholders almost double their money in a sale.

    After Google agreed this month to pay a dot-com era premium for Motorola and its patents, RIM, maker of the BlackBerry, may now be worth almost $25 billion, an estimate from Morgan Keegan & Co. showed.

    With Google gaining Motorola?s handset business, RIM may now attract interest from Samsung Electronics Co. and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Stewart Capital said. A buyer would get a smartphone maker that is still dominant among corporate clients, runs its own operating system and offers greater security with its own e-mail servers. Paying twice RIM?s value of $13.5 billion would still be a discount to rivals.

    Say what?

    Microsoft would never, never never buy RIM. They have their own proprietary Mobile Operating System and they license it to hardware manufacturers in order to make money. That’s their business model. They might desire that RIM license their software, but if they purchased RIM they would only be gaining a wholly incompatible mobile operating system (and a rapidly failing company).

    And Samsung? Please. Samsung has Bada and Android and Windows Phone 7 too if they so desired. Why would they buy RIM’s proprietary operating system when RIM can’t make any money from it? It would be like abandoning a perfectly good ship in order to hop onto the Titanic.

    I’ve seen a lot of stupid stuff from analysts, but this is right up there with the dumbest of the dumb ideas. I guess the only thing dumber is that the stock rallied on news of this nonsensical drivel.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 August 2011 04:39 PM #47

    When Bloomberg Interns Attack!

    Incoherence all over the place, the data show.  Honestly, I think data shows stuff, even if “data” is plural.  Most people agree with me, the data show.

    Did the data show that RIM has experienced a rally of any kind?  I got it, it’s spiked in after-hours fantasy merger value land because of one guy’s opinion, the article show. 

    Er, shows. 

    Reading the article reminds me of “A Better Omelet.”  Nicely scrambled.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 August 2011 04:45 PM #48

    Hey, hey…..

    I forgot my disclaimer that I thought the article was clueless.

    I post, you decide… :-)

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 21 August 2011 05:22 PM #49

    Red Shirted Ensign - 21 August 2011 07:45 PM

    Hey, hey…..

    I forgot my disclaimer that I thought the article was clueless.

    I post, you decide… grin

    Oh sure, NOW you say that!  tongue laugh

    Well if you can wait until after the fact to make your opinion conform to that of the majority, then I’m going to predict that HP will shut down the TouchPad and get out of the PC business altogether! Furthermore, I think dirigibles filled with flammable helium are a terrible idea. So there!

         
  • Posted: 21 August 2011 05:35 PM #50

    FalKirk - 20 August 2011 11:56 PM

    Who
    foresaw Google buying Motorola? Who foresaw the TouchPad failing this quickly? Anyone who says they did is a liar.

    My mantra had been that only HP would an able competitor to Apple. HP’s announcements this past week absolutely floored me.

    Today I don’t think Apple has ANY able competitors, only fringe knockoff players feeding on crumbs. Does anyone realize what a shift in technology revenues this means?  It’s nearly unfathomable.

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 21 August 2011 06:25 PM #51

    Gregg Thurman - 21 August 2011 08:35 PM

    Today I don’t think Apple has ANY able competitors, only fringe knockoff players feeding on crumbs. Does anyone realize what a shift in technology revenues this means?  It’s nearly unfathomable.

    Man oh man, this is so true! It’s estimated that Apple brings in about 33% of all PC profits despite only having around 5% market share. It’s also been estimated that Apple brings in around 66% of the profit share from the smart phone market despite only having 18% market share.

    Apple owns 93% or more of the iPad market share. They are bringing in virtually 99% of the profit. The iPad - which was only 15 months old at the time - brought in almost half as much profit as the iPhone did this past quarter. And iPad sales rose 183% year-over-year with revenue rising 179% year-over-year.

    The iPad is the fastest growing - almost the only growing - sector of computing. Apple has all of the market share and all of the profit share. Microsoft is not feeling the pinch yet because Windows XP owners (yes, I said Windows XP) are all still converting to Windows 7. But when that well runs dry, the number of new PCs sold with Windows 7 will plateau and then start to diminish. And the manufacturers are feeling the pain now. Both their margins and their sales are simultaneously dropping. It’s a deadly one-two combo that drove HP out of the market and Dell may be next.

    The only place to make real money right now is in tablets and Apple is the only one in the tablet space. As large as Apple is today, they are poised to see continued explosive growth in the near future.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 August 2011 06:59 PM #52

    Mav - 21 August 2011 07:39 PM

    When Bloomberg Interns Attack!

    Incoherence all over the place, the data show.  Honestly, I think data shows stuff, even if “data” is plural.  Most people agree with me, the data show.

    Did the data show that RIM has experienced a rally of any kind?  I got it, it’s spiked in after-hours fantasy merger value land because of one guy’s opinion, the article show. 

    Er, shows. 

    Reading the article reminds me of “A Better Omelet.”  Nicely scrambled.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_noun

    Signature

    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 August 2011 08:53 PM #53

    Oh, I know the data show that some people ignore proper English because it just sounds better.

    Luckily I don’t find myself in situations where I’m in danger of displaying my ignorance or disregard of proper phrases like “data show”.  Too much.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 August 2011 09:16 PM #54

    Data is a singular proper noun….duh!

    grin

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 26 August 2011 02:43 PM #55

    Carriers seeking an alternative to Apple, Google may turn back to BlackBerry
    By: Zach Epstein | Aug 26th, 2011

    Research In Motion will benefit in the near term from the ongoing launch of its new BlackBerry 7 smartphones, which are being described as the vendor?s strongest devices in some time. Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu upgraded his rating on RIM stock to Buy from Neutral, increasing his price target to $35 from $28. Wu sees near-term opportunity in RIM, and he thinks new BlackBerry handsets like the Bold 9900 will be well received. ?The key differences this time include a refined user interface and improved hardware including faster processors, better graphics and displays as well as better build quality with its greater use of premium materials,? Wu wrote on Friday. ?The company recently launched the new Bold 9900 and Torch 9810 and we see the upcoming launch of the full touchscreen Torch and new lower-end Curve in upcoming 1-2 quarters as future catalysts. RIMM has undoubtedly lost some customers but for loyalists still using 2-3 year old models, these refined updates are a worthy upgrade.? Read on for more.
    Wu goes on to add that RIM could capitalize while Nokia transitions from Symbian to Microsoft?s Windows Phone platform, though he did add that there is still concern surrounding s RIM?s long-term fundamentals and the risk of falling handset margins and increased competition. Perhaps most interestingly, however, the analyst says carriers are relaying a desire to broaden their portfolios to include a viable alternative to Google?s Android OS and Apple?s iOS platform, which now dominate the smartphone market. ?In our conservation with carriers, they are increasingly concerned with the growing dominance of GOOG and AAPL and want a viable No. 3 alternative,? Wu wrote. ?We believe RIMM benefits being the incumbent and with now a stronger product set.?

    http://www.bgr.com/2011/08/26/carriers-seeking-an-alternative-to-apple-google-may-turn-back-to-blackberry/

    _________________

    The Ensign disagrees with this author….. rolleyes  WP7 may be a viable alterenative…..even WebOs might rise from the grave, but RIMM is not the answer.

    [ Edited: 26 August 2011 02:45 PM by Red Shirted Ensign ]

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 26 August 2011 02:48 PM #56

    We hate that iPhones sell so well, make our ARPU skyrocket and lead us to profitability! 

    We must do something about that!

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 01 September 2011 05:49 PM #57

    Anyone else think that RIMM is ripe for an earnings play, as this guy over at Seeking Alpha is suggesting?

    Balsille will further embarrass the company and, yet again, scare the living heck out of analysts and investors later this month on the Q2 conference call. All that can save RIM after-hours on the 15th and when the market opens on the 16th is more unrealistic and overly-optimistic guidance based on hype for products that will finally hit the streets in full force come early 2012.

    Balsille fooled investors once by waiting too long to lower the company’s FY 2012 estimates. I don’t think they’ll be fooled again. Either way, expect the slide back toward RIM’s 52-week low of $21.60 to commence shortly after earnings. The guidance will dictate exactly when it happens and how fierce the move will be. Time stamps aside, it will happen. And when it does, the flood gates to the teens will open.

    In the world of tech, you can only remain irrelevant for so long. QNX will hit the streets in “early 2012” with little fanfare. iPhone and Android will continue to dominate. Consumers will not come back to RIM simply because the company finally got around to releasing a product. It just does not work that way. The numbers will, once again, disappoint and by this time next year, RIM will trade below $10, barring a buyout or meaningful partnership.

    I would play it by shorting the stock or buying long-dated, slightly out-of-the-money puts. Consider picking up the RIMM January 2013 $30 puts for the song-and-dance price of $6.30.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 06 September 2011 06:35 PM #58

    Here’s an interesting take on how Apple is helping RIMM. Note there is no question of the new Blackberry overtaking the “old” iPhone 4.

    These initial victories for Apple do not bode well for Samsung especially in the European market where its market share has moved from 5.0% Q2 last year to 18.8% this year. In addition to these legal issues, we believe the BlackBerry Bold 9900 is already outselling the Samsung Galaxy S. Based on GSM Exchange?s website, which tracks the top 3 most actively traded devices in Europe, the Bold 9900 is now in the #2 position ahead of the Samsung Galaxy S II and behind the iPhone-4 16Gb.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/09/06/rim-samsung-troubles-already-helping-os-7-says-scotia/?mod=yahoobarrons

         
  • Posted: 06 September 2011 07:59 PM #59

    Drew Bear - 06 September 2011 09:35 PM

    Here’s an interesting take on how Apple is helping RIMM. Note there is no question of the new Blackberry overtaking the “old” iPhone 4.

    These initial victories for Apple do not bode well for Samsung especially in the European market where its market share has moved from 5.0% Q2 last year to 18.8% this year. In addition to these legal issues, we believe the BlackBerry Bold 9900 is already outselling the Samsung Galaxy S. Based on GSM Exchange?s website, which tracks the top 3 most actively traded devices in Europe, the Bold 9900 is now in the #2 position ahead of the Samsung Galaxy S II and behind the iPhone-4 16Gb.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/09/06/rim-samsung-troubles-already-helping-os-7-says-scotia/?mod=yahoobarrons

    This is the single biggest point I see that strongly suggests iPhone market dominance.  More than a year “old” and iPhone4 continues to gain share against far “newer” competitor models.  That tells me that the consumer believes iPhone technology is at least two years ahead of the competition, and that’s after 4 years of trying to just duplicate the device.

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 06 September 2011 08:53 PM #60

    Gregg Thurman - 06 September 2011 10:59 PM

    This is the single biggest point I see that strongly suggests iPhone market dominance.  More than a year “old” and iPhone4 continues to gain share against far “newer” competitor models.  That tells me that the consumer believes iPhone technology is at least two years ahead of the competition, and that’s after 4 years of trying to just duplicate the device.

    Gruber discussed this today too:

    Former Nokia executive Tomi Ahonen, predicting market share drop-off for the iPhone back in April 2010:

    The Apple iPhone sales pattern differs from all other major smartphone makers because Apple only releases one new model per year. So the sales take off strongly and then decline as the rivals keep releasing newer phones.

    The first of those two sentences is a fact. The second is not ? it?s conventional wisdom. Conflating conventional wisdom with fact is a problem for many of Apple?s competitors. Remember, for example, how often it was treated as a fact that the iPhone?s lack of a user-removable battery was a ?con??

    I remember looking at a chart of iPhone sales and there was a definite pattern. Big bump when the new model was announced. Even bigger sales in the holiday quarter. Slight slump during the first quarter of the year and then a big dip just before the announcement of the new model.

    No more. One of the first signs of change is when 3GS sales actually INCREASED in the January quarter. Unprecedented. I believe there was a slight dip in the next quarter, but ever since the iPhone 4 was announced, sales have been growing and growing and growing. (And remember, this is a “defective phone. [eye roll].)