The Future of RIMM

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    Posted: 08 September 2011 10:50 PM #61

    This was expected… still kinda sad:

    Over at techvibes, look for this story: smells-like-desparation-rim-offering-100-to-anyone-who-will-buy-the-playbook-2011-09-08 (TMO wouldn’t allow link)

    RIMM is dying… and they don’t realize it yet.  So sad.

         
  • Posted: 08 September 2011 11:27 PM #62

    mjuarez - 09 September 2011 01:50 AM

    This was expected… still kinda sad:

    Over at techvibes, look for this story: smells-like-desparation-rim-offering-100-to-anyone-who-will-buy-the-playbook-2011-09-08 (TMO wouldn’t allow link)

    RIMM is dying… and they don’t realize it yet.  So sad.

    Of the four competing tablet players, I thought that the best operating systems were webOS, QNX, Android and Windows 8 Tablet, in that order. I probably would have rated webOS and QNX as 1 and 1a.

    Despite that, I thought that Android had the best shot because it already had the name recognitions, the distribution channels and the developers. Boy was I wrong about that. I’ve been stunned at the lack of programs being developed for the Android tablets. It simply makes no sense unless Android developers have no faith in development of the Android tablet platform or they’re not making any money of both.

    As to webOS and QNX, we have two very fine operating systems that are going to be killed in the crib. webOS is already gone and there’s no way that RIM is going to have time to develop the QNX OS. In a way, it’s similar to Palm. Palm made a good OS in webOS, but they ran out of money long before they could develop it.  Similarly, RIM is running out of time fast. Their market share fell from 40% to 23% from June to June and there’s no stopping the slide. Their two big advantages were BBM and their air tight security. Now everyone has a BBM clone, including Apple and even Samsung, and companies are tired of sacrificing features just for the sake of security. In my opinion, RIM is the next Nokia. Or worse.

    Finally Windows Tablet 8. I usually don’t think a product should be judged until 1) It has a ship date, 2) It has a price; 3) It has been reviewed by objective third parties. However, I’ve never felt so sure that a product was going to fail as I feel about the Windows 8 Tablet (or whatever horrible name Microsoft will give to it.) Not only has Microsoft completely missed the boat on tablets, but they’re still insisting that the boat doesn’t exist. They’re sunk.

    Apple’s iPad is better than the competing products, yes. But watching the competition fall all over themselves to see who can fail the fastest is simply astonishing. I honestly think that Apple’s competitors are failing faster than Apple can succeed. It’s simply unbelievable how quickly Apple created, then dominated this crucial, crucial new category of computing.

    [ Edited: 09 September 2011 12:47 AM by FalKirk ]      
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    Posted: 09 September 2011 12:21 AM #63

    Thurrott, in the most recent Windows Weekly podcast, commented that he thought Win8 was still a ways away. There’s a developer’s conference next week that might provide a clearer timeline, but even that will be subject to change. It sounds like a product may not show up until late 2012 to early 2013.

    I’m not ready to say Win8 has absolutely no chance in tablets. If they wise up and stick to the Metro UI, they might have a chance to get some traction. But they are going to be so late. People will be talking about iPad 4 by that time.

    I give Thurrott credit for saying that some of the 4-5 yr. predictions of WP market share are dangerously arrogant.

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2011 12:56 AM #64

    You know, you really have to wonder what these guys are thinking. These are some of the highest paid, brightest minds in tech. Yet they’re making mistakes so obvious that a small child would recognize them.

    HTC recently came out with a tablet that wasn’t as good as the iPad, had no Apps, was priced $200 dollars more than the iPad and required a 2 year contract. What the heck?

    Look at each major tablet OS in turn.

    HP give their tablet some 60 days and then killed it. What were they thinking?

    RIM comes out with a table that doesn’t even do basic things like email. What were they thinking?

    Android manufacturers rush out a table using a phone OS that Google itself said was not right for Tablets. What were they thinking?

    Microsoft continues to insist that the Windows operating system is viable on a tablet despite ten years of experience telling them otherwise, despite Apple having shown them the secret to the tablet, despite the fact that by the time they bring out their FIRST tablet the iPad will be on its third iteration. What are they thinking?

    Or are any of them thinking at all?

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2011 01:33 AM #65

    Apple Inc. epitomizes the power of a well-executed, well-thought-out long-range plan in action.  From leveraging ARM technology (with iPods) to NeXTSTEP (which ironically transformed from commercial flop to post-acquisition-most-profitable-OS-in-the-world).  Starting from an iPod that displayed photos then videos to iPhones that take both, with increasingly powerful-yet-simple editing tools (made possible by Apple’s in-house Photoshop aka Core Image, as well as Core Video).  Years and years and years of masterful, relentlessly refined industrial design working hand-in-hand with hardware engineering.  And on and on and on.

    The second you start playing catch-up with something like this, you’ve already stumbled out of the gate.  It’s not necessarily the end (Android is technically doing well), but to take the words of Ive out of context, you increase the opportunities for failure.  Android vendors will NEVER be able to work as closely with Google as Apple can with its own teams.  The same goes for Moto, for at _least_ a few years (and even then, the hardware/software teams just can’t mesh to the same degree as Apple’s teams can). 

    RIM is trapped in the past and didn’t embrace QNX _or_ newer SoC tech (yes, it looks like even Apple will beat RIM with a dual-core phone offering) nearly soon enough.  And Steve Jobs even dispensed some free advice during a past CC.

    HP…well, that’s a classic example of a megacorp that’s Too Big To Move?, whereas Apple is the World’s Largest Startup?.  webOS is promising tech, but the powers that be rushed it out the door, and in many cases (Pre 3, Veer) didn’t even equip it with the hardware it needed to be competitive (or sensible - see Veer charging method).  That, or the Palm hardware team didn’t care or know enough (“oh, a single-core, yesteryear-screened, 8GB capacity, small-battery phone should be enough for an August 2011 launch” - Pre 3) and/or upper management didn’t care or know enough (“yeah, you guys just do whatever you want”) 

    You might even say that in the new mobile game, only one company could even hope to compete with Apple on the critical integration front - RIM - but that everyone was severely disadvantaged because only Apple thought things out to the nth degree.

    It’s amazing to see Apple’s careful planning coming together like this.

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    Posted: 09 September 2011 03:38 PM #66

    RIM: Jefferies Returns To Sell; QNX BB Being Rushed?

    Jefferies & Co.?s Peter Misek this morning cut his rating on shares of Research in Motion to Underperform from Hold, just three weeks after having upgraded the stock, writing that demand for the company?s new BlackBerry devices has not been as good as could be hoped, and that the company?s next-generation device may be hobbled by being rushed out the door.

    ...RIM may be in some haste to bring to market a BlackBerry based on its ?QNX? operating system, the intended next leg of the BlackBerry franchise, in order to have something out around the time of the Consumer Electronics Show in January.

    ?Based on our checks, we believe the phone is being rushed and features are being stripped. Most importantly, the integration of BES/BIS email/calendar is proving difficult, and we think a QNX phone without these would be a disaster.?

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/09/09/rim-jefferies-returns-to-sell-qnx-bb-being-rushed/?mod=BOLBlog

    Wow! A January 2012 “introduction” translates to a release in April/May…maybe. And without email or BBM again? They can’t be that stupid. Can they?

    With summer ending, we?re expecting a few announcements from RIM just around the corner….So what can we expect to see from RIM coming soon?

    Native Email and PIM functionality on PlayBook: We?re not clear on exactly when this will happen but we?ve been hearing about a big relaunch of the QNX Tablet OS UI coming soon and it could coincide with native PIM functionality for the PlayBook.

    http://www.blackberrycool.com/2011/08/21/5-cool-things-we-can-expect-from-rim-in-the-next-few-months/

    Unbelievable! RIM announced the PlayBook in October 2010. Watch this video to hear how excited the Crackberries were. It takes them 6 months to finally release the product WITHOUT native email or BBM. That was this past April and they promised email/BBM would be “coming soon”. It’s now 5 months later and they still don’t have native email.

    RIM should just buy WebOS. I don’t know who is more desperate: HPQ to sell it or RIMM to buy it, but I think RIMM can afford a few $billion. They can’t afford to keep chasing QNX if it takes them this long to incorporate basic feature sets.

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2011 04:51 PM #67

    RIM: Jefferies Returns To Sell; QNX BB Being Rushed?

    Jefferies & Co.?s Peter Misek this morning cut his rating on shares of Research in Motion to Underperform from Hold, just three weeks after having upgraded the stock, writing that demand for the company?s new BlackBerry devices has not been as good as could be hoped, and that the company?s next-generation device may be hobbled by being rushed out the door.

    I know that conventional wisdom isn’t always right but EVERYBODY knew this. How could this analyst - who presumably knows much more than we do and has his finger on the pulse of the company - be so clueless?

    ?Based on our checks, we believe the phone is being rushed and features are being stripped.”

    Geez, you needed “checks” to figure that out?

    Drew Bear - 09 September 2011 06:38 PM

    RIM should just buy WebOS.

    Nah. First, they’d have to gear up again which would take even more time. Second, they’d be in the same boat - a new OS with no Apps and no developers.

    It’s too late for RIM. They’ve run out of time. They will never be able to develop a sufficient mobile ecosystem before their stock price collapses.

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2011 05:55 PM #68

    FalKirk - 09 September 2011 07:51 PM
    Drew Bear - 09 September 2011 06:38 PM

    RIM should just buy WebOS.

    Nah. First, they’d have to gear up again which would take even more time. Second, they’d be in the same boat - a new OS with no Apps and no developers.

    It’s too late for RIM. They’ve run out of time. They will never be able to develop a sufficient mobile ecosystem before their stock price collapses.

    Yes, it would mean yet another delay to switch to WebOS. But QNX seems to be a burning platform, while WebOS is only smoldering. RIM is at a crossroads. All roads lead to the edge of a cliff, but some roads are longer than others.

    The problem with a WebOS/Palm buyout is that RIM’s corporate culture is probably more deadly to the innovation needed than even HP’s. How many of the best & brightest on the WebOS team left for Apple, Microsoft or Google during the HP transition? How many are now being recruited away from HP? What will be left by the end of the year?

    Yup, you’re right. It’s too late for RIM. We’re witnessing the sad death throes of yet another once thriving corporation. Apple has really wreaked havoc on so many businesses.

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2011 07:34 PM #69

    Apple exposes the tragic flaws. The laying waste is self inflicted.

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2011 08:44 PM #70

    RIMM had one trick pony that was winning a lot of races, until a thoroughbred came to town.

    Game over.


    :apple:

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2011 09:43 PM #71

    Mav - 09 September 2011 04:33 AM

    Apple Inc. epitomizes the power of a well-executed, well-thought-out long-range plan in action.  From leveraging ARM technology (with iPods) to NeXTSTEP (which ironically transformed from commercial flop to post-acquisition-most-profitable-OS-in-the-world).  Starting from an iPod that displayed photos then videos to iPhones that take both, with increasingly powerful-yet-simple editing tools (made possible by Apple’s in-house Photoshop aka Core Image, as well as Core Video).  Years and years and years of masterful, relentlessly refined industrial design working hand-in-hand with hardware engineering.  And on and on and on.

    The second you start playing catch-up with something like this, you’ve already stumbled out of the gate.  It’s not necessarily the end (Android is technically doing well), but to take the words of Ive out of context, you increase the opportunities for failure.  Android vendors will NEVER be able to work as closely with Google as Apple can with its own teams.  The same goes for Moto, for at _least_ a few years (and even then, the hardware/software teams just can’t mesh to the same degree as Apple’s teams can). 

    RIM is trapped in the past and didn’t embrace QNX _or_ newer SoC tech (yes, it looks like even Apple will beat RIM with a dual-core phone offering) nearly soon enough.  And Steve

    Jobs even dispensed some free advice during a past CC.

    HP…well, that’s a classic example of a megacorp that’s Too Big To Move?, whereas Apple is the World’s Largest Startup?.  webOS is promising tech, but the powers that be rushed it out the door, and in many cases (Pre 3, Veer) didn’t even equip it with the hardware it needed to be competitive (or sensible - see Veer charging method).  That, or the Palm hardware team didn’t care or know enough (“oh, a single-core, yesteryear-screened, 8GB capacity, small-battery phone should be enough for an August 2011 launch” - Pre 3) and/or upper management didn’t care or know enough (“yeah, you guys just do whatever you want”) 

    You might even say that in the new mobile game, only one company could even hope to compete with Apple on the critical integration front - RIM - but that everyone was severely disadvantaged because only Apple thought things out to the nth degree.
    It’s amazing to see Apple’s careful planning coming together like this.


    Apple spent ten years developing the iPad.  When it was finally introduced it was a product with perfectly integrated hardware and software, beautifully designed and executed, well thought out in terms of what the product should do, and well thought out manufacturing with costs much lower than commonly occurs with new products.  There is no way that even the most competent technical company can copy it in two years, or even there or four years.  Time is inelastic. Indeed, the copiers are still trying to understand why it is such hit. 

    They will succeed eventually but by the time they do Apple will have moved well beyond where they are now.

    Any other company would have released the iPad at a much earlier state of development.  They would have been eager to monetize it as soon as possible.  This would have compromised it’s chance of success, and because it had not reached the state of maturity that the iPad has it would have been much easier to copy in a short time.

    I believe we will see one attempt after another fail.  Some may carve out a niche for themselves but Apple will suck up all the profits.

    Meantime, I wonder what the next product that has been gestating for at least five years will be?

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  • Posted: 09 September 2011 10:09 PM #72

    Drew Bear - 09 September 2011 08:55 PM

    QNX seems to be a burning platform, while WebOS is only smoldering. RIM is at a crossroads. All roads lead to the edge of a cliff, but some roads are longer than others.

    I have the highest respect for your opinion, but I wouldn’t say that RIM is at a crossroad, I’d say that they were at the end of their road.

    By way of proof, just look at this story that John Gruber posted today:

    This web page uses ActiveX controls that work only in Microsoft Internet Explorer. To ensure that BlackBerry App World is correctly downloaded to your BlackBerry, this site is not designed to work with any other Internet browsers. If you cannot use Internet Explorer, you may be able to download the software directly to your BlackBerry smartphone.

    So the only way to get to the BlackBerry App world is via Internet Explorer. In this day and age that amounts to unmitigated madness.

         
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    Posted: 11 September 2011 11:04 PM #73

    This is the kind of article that makes me go hmmmmmmmm.  Can RIMM and even prosper with a low cost third world strategy, or will icloud and a 3G iPod touch undermine this….

    ( rest of article behind a pay wall )

    TECHNOLOGYSEPTEMBER 12, 2011
    BlackBerry Finds Fertile Ground in Asia
    RIM Turns to Indonesia and Other Emerging Economies as the Company’s Smartphone Loses

    BY ERIC BELLMAN

    JAKARTA, Indonesia?Booming demand for BlackBerrys here and elsewhere in the developing world is lifting hopes that the smartphone’s embattled manufacturer might still have the means to grow even as its market share plummets in the U.S. and other wealthy countries.

    BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. is squeezing growth out of places like Indonesia by switching its focus from high-end corporate users to emerging middle-class consumers with newfound money to spend, many of whom have no interest in the constantly updated email that made the BlackBerry famous. RIM has lowered BlackBerry prices to around $200 here, which isn’t the lowest ...
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576557703316562230.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

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  • Posted: 11 September 2011 11:29 PM #74

    Red Shirted Ensign - 12 September 2011 02:04 AM

    TECHNOLOGYSEPTEMBER 12, 2011
    BlackBerry Finds Fertile Ground in Asia
    RIM Turns to Indonesia and Other Emerging Economies as the Company’s Smartphone Loses

    BY ERIC BELLMAN

    JAKARTA, Indonesia?Booming demand for BlackBerrys here and elsewhere in the developing world is lifting hopes that the smartphone’s embattled manufacturer might still have the means to grow even as its market share plummets in the U.S. and other wealthy countries.

    First, this reminds me of what they used to say about Nokia - that their smart phone share may be down but they’re stilling selling tons of phones in the third world! And it was true too. But what no one realized was that those phones had razor thing margins and were bringing virtually no profit to Nokia.

    Second, I have no doubt that RIM is prospering in the developing world. They have an extensive distribution network, great hardware, BBM is extremely useful and their keyboard is renowned throughout the mobile industry. But what’s happening in the rest of the world is eventually going to happen in the third world too. In the U.S. and Europe, BlackBerry is suffering because keyboards are no longer seen as essential. other manufacturers are making comparable hardware and other manufacturers have products that can readily substitute for BBM. More importantly, BlackBerry is lacking Apps, and ecosystem to support Apps and a slew of other features too. As Android and iPhone start to reach the markets that the BlackBerry is in, they will start to displace the BlackBerry just as they have everywhere else.

         
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    Posted: 13 September 2011 03:28 PM #75

    Continental Shift: RIM Rapidly Losing Ground in North America


    http://allthingsd.com/20110913/continental-shift-rim-losing-ground-in-north-america/?reflink=ATD_yahoo_ticker


    Continental Shift: RIM Rapidly Losing Ground in North America
    September 13, 2011 at 11:03 am PT
    inShare.SharePrint As an indicator of the headwinds facing Research In Motion, few are more worrisome than the precipitous decline in the company?s North American market share.

    In the first quarter of 2009, RIM shipped 54 percent of the smartphones sold in North America. Now, just a few years later, it?s shipping less than a quarter of that ? an estimated 13 percent in the second calendar quarter of 2011.

    That does not bode well for the Blackberry maker, says Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu, who views the company?s ?progressive effacement? from the North American handset market as a foreshadowing of things to come abroad.

    ?We see the beginning of a weakness in the U.K. market, and BlackBerry might soon be in decline in other European countries as well,? Ferragu writes in a research note today, adding that his discussions with European operators suggest the BlackBerry is no longer considered a preferred mid-range smartphone.

    Ugly news for RIM, because the BlackBerry isn?t exactly killing it at the high end, either. As Ferragu notes, ?RIM has been completely routed in high-end smartphones.? The 18 percent share of that market segment it held in the first calendar quarter of 2010 slipped to just 8 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

    And at this point, RIM can ill-afford to lose on one front, let alone two. Yet that appears to be what?s happening as rivals like Apple, Samsung and HTC extend the reach of their handset portfolios to lower price points.

    ?We believe that the sub-$300 smartphone market will soon display an evolution similar to that of the high-end market as Apple, Samsung and HTC, which have formed an oligopoly in the high end, expand into the mid- and low end,? Ferragu concludes. ?RIM?s market share has already declined 3 points from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2011. We expect RIM to lose a further 5 points of market share by 2012 as the oligopolistic players extend their domain.?

    RIM reports results for its second quarter Thursday afternoon after the bell.

    RSE:  I can’t wait for the conference call!!!

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