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AAPL sinking below NASDAQ 100
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Gregg Thurman
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This selloff makes no sense and is a product of big traders looking at the very short term picture. As a long I’m not worried , pissed off ... yes… but not worried.
I don’t think this sell off is a WS conspiracy. I continue to believe that AAPL is flailing along because Apple missed its internal estimates for iPad sales for fiscal Q4/10, Q1/11 and Q2/11.
I’d be careful calling a direction either way here as logic is out the window .... we are at the whim of Wall Street and their short term wills ...
Volume doesn’t support theory of WS manipulation. The daily average volume since April earnings remains 20+% BELOW the quarterly trading average from January earnings through April earnings. This is retail trading levels. If institutional buyers/sellers were involved daily average volume would be above 28,000,000 (daily average from April 2010 earnings to July 2010 earnings).
CNBC had a segment on Apple and it’s share price decline, nothing of substance was said but several said this was simply a “technical” correction ....
Technical is what they say when they don’t have a clue what’s going on (most of the time).
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Major stock markets around the world are in bearish mood. Consumer discretionary and tech stocks suffer more than consumer staples stocks in a bearish trend.
As for AAPL, I guess investors are posturing for the eventual announcement that SJ is no longer in charge. Top executives like Ron Johnson and Bertrand Serlet had left the company. I believe the next to follow would be Jony Ives. Basically those who don’t want to report to Tim Cook or disagree with his strategic direction would leave.
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DawnTreader
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Major stock markets around the world are in bearish mood. Consumer discretionary and tech stocks suffer more than consumer staples stocks in a bearish trend.
As for AAPL, I guess investors are posturing for the eventual announcement that SJ is no longer in charge. Top executives like Ron Johnson and Bertrand Serlet had left the company. I believe the next to follow would be Jony Ives. Basically those who don’t want to report to Tim Cook or disagree with his strategic direction would leave.
Remember, too, many of the top execs have been with Apple since NeXT or joined the company within the first few years following SJ’s return. These individuals are extraordinarily successful and extraordinarily wealthy. I don’t read much into the timing of the departures.
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danthemason
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If that management training has been implementing the Jobs Way, there should be a few young guns ready to step up. I’m not concerned, there’s a Cook in the kitchen.
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DawnTreader
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“Patience is the long-term investor’s most effective investment tool.”
DawnTrader in the AFB, January 20, 2011
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
Technical is what they say when they don’t have a clue what’s going on (most of the time).
Agreed.
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The high P/E times of 2009 and 2010 had some rumored products down the pike. There was the long rumored tablet and of course the Verizon Unicorn. There were things to be hopeful about. Now, the iPad is in execute mode, the iPhone’s market share is treading water, and few believe Apple knows what it’s doing with cloud services like Microsoft and Google.
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DawnTreader
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The high P/E times of 2009 and 2010 had some rumored products down the pike. There was the long rumored tablet and of course the Verizon Unicorn. There were things to be hopeful about. Now, the iPad is in execute mode, the iPhone’s market share is treading water, and few believe Apple knows what it’s doing with cloud services like Microsoft and Google.
Brad:
In 2009 the shares were trading at a stated p/e multiple that didn’t reflect the deferred revenue on the iPhone so the stated p/e was higher than the actual results that eliminated the impact of the deferred revenue accounting. Apple restated 2009 results in early 2010 which pushed the p/e multiple lower than what was reflected at the time of trading.
Cloud services (whether Apple knows what the company is doing or not and only time and execution can render a verdict) is not a material revenue source for the company. I’m not modeling any material revenue contributions from Apple’s cloud-based services efforts through at least FY2012.
As for Google and Microsoft, they are both trading at 2006 levels. Microsoft remains a highly profitable company and Google isn’t in the poor house either.
All of that said I don’t expect Apple to return to a p/e of 20 times trailing 12-month earnings for any real length of time and I caution anyone against using such a high multiple in any forecast models or projections.
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Gregg Thurman
- [ Ignore ]
If that management training has been implementing the Jobs Way, there should be a few young guns ready to step up. I’m not concerned, there’s a Cook in the kitchen.
The absolute biggest error that analysts and others make is assuming that Apple’s management expertise resides in a half dozen senior executives.
For senior management to do good they require staffs that are equally, if not more, competent as they.
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You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.
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... Now, the iPad is in execute mode, the iPhone’s market share is treading water, and few believe Apple knows what it’s doing with cloud services like Microsoft and Google.
I think iPad/iCloud is what SJ had in mind when he founded Apple. Tim Cook and his management team only need to bloom iOS devices/iCloud, no need for any new revolutionary product categories. The new vision has to come from the next CEO after Tim Cook.
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Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. - Steve Jobs
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If that management training has been implementing the Jobs Way, there should be a few young guns ready to step up. I’m not concerned, there’s a Cook in the kitchen.
The absolute biggest error that analysts and others make is assuming that Apple’s management expertise resides in a half dozen senior executives.
For senior management to do good they require staffs that are equally, if not more, competent as they.
Enterprises alway groom the next generation leaders and have depth in management. This practice is not sufficient for continued success. We need to see the money.
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Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. - Steve Jobs
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Gregg Thurman
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Enterprises alway groom the next generation leaders and have depth in management. This practice is not sufficient for continued success.
Sure it is. MSFT’s management BELOW THE CEO LEVEL, is very good. Where firms go wrong is the person selected to create/maintain a vision. You can’t groom that person.
In Apple’s case the vision for the next several years is firmly instilled in the executive team. They aren’t going to willy nilly abandon work already in progress.
The danger for a successful firm arises when the new visionary (CEO) starts shaping the company’s products after current products have come to market.
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You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.
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IIe programmer
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The role of management is to boost earnings. Management is doing quite fine. I don’t expect management to take extraordinary steps to temporarily or artificially boost the share price.
Yup.
