The future of Nokia

  • Posted: 21 July 2011 10:17 PM #16

    macglenn - 22 July 2011 12:22 AM
    FalKirk - 22 July 2011 12:13 AM

    then why oh why would they want to buy a Nokia Windows Phone 7 phone?

    Do you know how many Apple haters there are out there.  And how many Android haters?
    Well if you happen to be both, you may be interested in a Windows7 phone.  Sorry, that bottle of Claret at dinner loosened something.

    I doubt it. We see the Apple haters from all sides because they’re so annoying and so in our faces. But in real life, their simply aren’t that many people who are “pro” Microsoft or Nokia.

    The proof? Look at Windows Phone 7 (if you can find it). Where are legions of pro-microsoft fanatics?

    We’ll see. Facts trump speculation. But I think that Nokia, in particular, if fooling itself. They think that people are going to but their phones because of their brand. I think that people are going to stay far the hell away from their phones…

    ...because of their brand.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 July 2011 10:28 PM #17

    FalKirk - 22 July 2011 01:17 AM
    macglenn - 22 July 2011 12:22 AM
    FalKirk - 22 July 2011 12:13 AM

    then why oh why would they want to buy a Nokia Windows Phone 7 phone?

    Do you know how many Apple haters there are out there.  And how many Android haters?
    Well if you happen to be both, you may be interested in a Windows7 phone.  Sorry, that bottle of Claret at dinner loosened something.

    I doubt it. We see the Apple haters from all sides because they’re so annoying and so in our faces. But in real life, their simply aren’t that many people who are “pro” Microsoft or Nokia.

    The proof? Look at Windows Phone 7 (if you can find it). Where are legions of pro-microsoft fanatics?

    We’ll see. Facts trump speculation. But I think that Nokia, in particular, if fooling itself. They think that people are going to but their phones because of their brand. I think that people are going to stay far the hell away from their phones…

    ...because of their brand.

    I would disagree, both Microsoft and Nokia have huge followings, and that pretty much is their only hope.  The folks occupy the CTO seat at most major corps grew up on Mr Softie for PC and Nokia for phones, wether that is relevant today is another issue but if they deliver a good enough product in 2012 there will be a bunch of underlings having to test out the latest and greatest from the dinosaurs.

         
  • Posted: 21 July 2011 11:46 PM #18

    pats - 22 July 2011 01:28 AM

    I would disagree, both Microsoft and Nokia have huge followings, and that pretty much is their only hope.  The folks occupy the CTO seat at most major corps grew up on Mr Softie for PC and Nokia for phones, wether that is relevant today is another issue but if they deliver a good enough product in 2012 there will be a bunch of underlings having to test out the latest and greatest from the dinosaurs.

    Maybe. But I doubt it.

    First, I don’t think there are as many fans as Microsoft as we might have been led to believe. Sure there were a group of people who truly love Microsoft. But most people “loved” Microsoft because they never knew any different. Once they found something different (and better) that worked for them, they dropped Microsoft like a lead pipe.

    And then there’s the evidence.

    If Microsoft is so beloved, then why haven’t the sales of Windows Phone 7 been better?

    If Nokia is so beloved, then why are the sales of ALL their phones falling off a cliff?

    Brands are two-edged swords. They can attract customers or drive them away. You’ve got to constantly maintain a brand. Let down your vigilance a brand can turn from gold into poison.

    The future is uncertain. Who knows what kind of Windows Phone 7 phone Nokia will come up with. It could be spectacular. But if Microsoft is expecting their name to carry this phone - if Nokia is expecting their name to carry this phone - they’re not only delusional, they’re toast.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 July 2011 08:07 AM #19

    adamthompson3232 - 27 July 2011 05:44 AM

    Tomi Ahonen really, really doesn’t care for Stephen Elop.

    http://twitter.com/#!/tomiahonen

    Wow.  That’s one good (and massive!) article.  I tend to agree on the conclusion, that Elop is basically losing $10M every single day he is allowed to remain as Nokia’s CEO.

    Good find.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2011 12:42 PM #20

    mjuarez - 27 July 2011 11:07 AM

    I tend to agree on the conclusion, that Elop is basically losing $10M every single day he is allowed to remain as Nokia’s CEO.

    Good find.

    I find it easy to criticize what Elop is doing, but I find it hard to suggest reasonable alternatives to what he is doing. I think he needed to cut the cord and abandon his existing platforms although many others disagree with me on that. I think it was a mistake to hook up with Windows Phone 7, but I think it would have been an even bigger mistake to have hooked up with Android. In other words, even sitting in my Monday morning pretend CEO Barcalounger with my twenty-twenty hindsight glasses firmly in place, I still have no good advice for Elop.

    I do have one quibble with what he’s been doing. I think he should have kept his mouth shut and revealed less about his future plans. This may have been impossible. He needed to assuage the board and boost the morale of the troops. Silence would have been seen as being obstinate or stone walling or proof that he had no solutions. But there is no way you can tell the world that you are abandoning all of your product lines and then expect your customers to blithely go on buying those lines as if nothing at all has happened.

    Prior to the most recent release of Nokia’‘s earnings, I saw some absurdly positive projections regarding Nokia’s sales and they all assumed that customers would simply continue to buy what Nokia sold as they had in the past. A Brand is a two-edged sword - it can both boost sales or destroy them depending on what message the Brand is sending. Once Nokia told the world it was abandoning its product lines, the world abandoned them too. This is so simple and so obvious that it should have smacked everyone straight in the face and made them sit up and take notices. But instead, a lot of otherwise very smart people were taken completely by surprise. Even assuming that the Nokia-Windows Phone 7 partnership would have worked - a very big assumption indeed - the question now is whether Nokia will survive long enough to even make a go of it. They are running out of sales and they are running out of time, and fast.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 July 2011 04:47 PM #21

    FalKirk - 27 July 2011 03:42 PM
    mjuarez - 27 July 2011 11:07 AM

    I tend to agree on the conclusion, that Elop is basically losing $10M every single day he is allowed to remain as Nokia’s CEO.

    Good find.

    I find it easy to criticize what Elop is doing, but I find it hard to suggest reasonable alternatives to what he is doing. I think he needed to cut the cord and abandon his existing platforms although many others disagree with me on that. I think it was a mistake to hook up with Windows Phone 7, but I think it would have been an even bigger mistake to have hooked up with Android. In other words, even sitting in my Monday morning pretend CEO Barcalounger with my twenty-twenty hindsight glasses firmly in place, I still have no good advice for Elop.

    I do have one quibble with what he’s been doing. I think he should have kept his mouth shut and revealed less about his future plans. This may have been impossible. He needed to assuage the board and boost the morale of the troops. Silence would have been seen as being obstinate or stone walling or proof that he had no solutions. But there is no way you can tell the world that you are abandoning all of your product lines and then expect your customers to
    blithely go on buying those lines as if nothing at all has happened.

    Prior to the most recent release of Nokia’‘s earnings, I saw some absurdly positive projections regarding Nokia’s sales and they all assumed that customers would simply continue to buy what Nokia sold as they had in the past. A Brand is a two-edged sword - it can both boost sales or destroy them depending on what message the Brand is sending. Once Nokia told the world it was abandoning its product lines, the world abandoned them too. This is so simple and so obvious that it should have smacked everyone straight in the face and made them sit up and take notices. But instead, a lot of otherwise very smart people were taken completely by surprise. Even assuming that the Nokia-Windows Phone 7 partnership would have worked - a very big assumption indeed - the question now is whether Nokia will survive long enough to
    even make a go of it. They are running out of sales and they are running out of time, and fast.

    If Microsoft stays fully committed to windows Phone 7 then the move is a good one for Nokia. As you o clearly stated, Nokia’s options were limited. They could not just be another Android house. MSFT has burned billions in search with Bing. They can burn billions helping Nokia hang on to it’s share of “what’s left”. This could be sizable in the developing world. But it will never be what the had before.

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2011 05:24 PM #22

    Red shirted ensign - 27 July 2011 07:47 PM

    If Microsoft stays fully committed to windows Phone 7 then the move is a good one for Nokia. As you o clearly stated, Nokia’s options were limited. They could not just be another Android house. MSFT has burned billions in search with Bing. They can burn billions helping Nokia hang on to it’s share of “what’s left”. This could be sizable in the developing world. But it will never be what the had before.

    Good points. I have no doubt that Microsoft is fully committed to Windows Phone 7. Even if they had doubts, which I don’t think they do, they really have no choice now.

    As to Microsoft burning billions to prop up Nokia, I’m not so sure. It may be exactly as you say. But Microsoft is not in the business of spending their money to help others. If Nokia became so weak or dilapidated that they desperately needed Microsoft’s assistance, then I believe that it would make more sense for Microsoft to acquire Nokia (at bargain basement prices) or acquire part of Nokia or get some rather large quid pro quo rather than simply provide them with their support gratis.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 July 2011 05:59 PM #23

    NOK (ADR) mkt cap < AAPL FQ3 rev

    They should shut up and get to work on their own bondi blue iMac. But even that wouldn’t save them. They’re way too far behind and the gap is widening continuously.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2011 06:43 PM #24

    Intjester - 27 July 2011 08:59 PM

    NOK (ADR) mkt cap < AAPL FQ3 rev

    They should shut up and get to work on their own bondi blue iMac. But even that wouldn’t save them. They’re way too far behind and the gap is widening continuously.

    Welcome Intjester.

    To be fair, Nokia doesn’t have a Steve Jobs to lead them from the wilderness.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 July 2011 07:21 PM #25

    They should shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders. LOL

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 24 August 2011 01:54 AM #26

    iPhone 5 ? will it kill Nokia Windows Phone?
    By Jon on August 23rd, 2011 Leave Comment
    The first Nokia Windows Phone has a big enough task on its hands restoring Nokia to the top of the smartphone ladder ? that it will launch in the same month as the iPhone 5 makes the job immeasurably tougher.
    Nokia slipped to third place in the smartphone manufacturer charts during the second quarter of 2011, and you can probably guess the name of the new number one: Apple.
    Nokia will begin the fightback in earnest in October at the Nokia World event. Taking place on the 26th and 27th of the month, it?s widely expected to be the venue for Nokia?s first Windows Phone device unveiling.
    YOU SHOULD READ ??Why is the UK first for Nokia Windows phone?
    Enter iPhone 5
    It?s make or break time for Nokia and its so-called ?Sea Ray?. Which is why the company must me more than a little concerned at all the reports pointing to an early-October release for the iPhone 5.
    If these reports are to be believed, the next gen Apple smartphone will launch on October 7 ? that?s less than a three week gap to the Nokia Windows Phone. Even worse for Nokia, it?s three weeks before the release of the Nokia Windows Phone. If we go by history, the world will be deep in the grip of iPhone fever by that point, with little or no attention paid to any other devices by the mainstream press, regardless of merit.
    What?s more, Reuters reports that Apple?s planning an initial production run of some 45 million devices. This means there?s unlikely to be the usual chronic shortages that tend to accompany the launch of a new iDevice. No shortages means no frustrated customers looking for an alternative.
    Sea Ray of light
    Of course, we shouldn?t be overly pessimistic over Nokia?s Windows Phone debut. There?s been a lot of positive buzz surrounding the Nokia N9, which the first Nokia Windows Phone is set to closely resemble, and the Windows Phone OS has been a critical (if not yet commercial) hit.
    In particular, the new version of the OS, Windows Phone Mango, has been attracting a lot of praise and attention for its radical improvement on an already very accomplished and unique OS. It?s said to come with around 500 improvements and additions, prompting many to predict that Microsoft will be propelled into the smartphone platform big league with Android and iOS ? functionally at least.
    Riding the crest of this Mango-flavoured wave will be the first Nokia Windows Phone device, which looks set to be tasked with championing the revamped OS and spearheading its push into the market. With Nokia and Microsoft throwing their considerable collective weight behind the device, even Apple will be hard pushed to have October all to itself.
    At least, that?s what Nokia will be hoping. What do you think? Does Nokia stand a chance of making a sales impression if it launches in October? Should it hold off until the new year, or will that be too late? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

    http://www.fonehome.co.uk/2011/08/23/iphone-5-will-it-kill-nokia-windows-phone/

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 24 August 2011 03:23 AM #27

    Red Shirted Ensign - 24 August 2011 04:54 AM

    iPhone 5 ? will it kill Nokia Windows Phone?
    If these reports are to be believed, the next gen Apple smartphone will launch on October 7 ? that?s less than a three week gap to the Nokia Windows Phone. Even worse for Nokia, it?s three weeks before the release of the Nokia Windows Phone. If we go by history, the world will be deep in the grip of iPhone fever by that point, with little or no attention paid to any other devices by the mainstream press, regardless of merit.
    What?s more, Reuters reports that Apple?s planning an initial production run of some 45 million devices. This means there?s unlikely to be the usual chronic shortages that tend to accompany the launch of a new iDevice. No shortages means no frustrated customers looking for an alternative.
    ...
    http://www.fonehome.co.uk/2011/08/23/iphone-5-will-it-kill-nokia-windows-phone/

    Wow.  That’s going to be a bloodbath, especially if, just like the iPad, iPhone5 comes out in most markets two weeks after US introduction.  Who is going to go for an untried/immature version 1.0, vs the established leader, with their shiny new 5.0 version?  And what if there’s a $99 or even free iPhone4s with 8Gb to compete with that?

    I bet Nokia can still move a few million WPhones by shoving them down a few carrier’s throats that still won’t have the iPhone available… but those are getting to be few and far between.  And in the end, they’re going to have to subsidize them heavily.  I don’t think the market, or even Nokia themselves, realize yet how bad this is going to be.

         
  • Posted: 24 August 2011 04:17 AM #28

    adamthompson3232 - 27 July 2011 05:44 AM

    Tomi Ahonen really, really doesn’t care for Stephen Elop.

    http://twitter.com/#!/tomiahonen

    I remember Ahonen disparaging Apple and iPhone at every turn when it was introduced, replete with condescending ridicule and predictions of total failure.

    Sure, he hates Elop. He hates Apple, too. He hates Android.  And everything else that is bringing down his Alma Mater.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 28 August 2011 01:11 PM #29

    What I find interesting in this otherwise lame market analysis is the reference to the ease of programming WP7 vs, Symbian. 

    If Nokia really goes all in, as expected, WP7 can emerge as the third OS in the mobile world.  MSFT has the money to help it happen and Nokia the market breadth

    ———-


    AUGUST 26, 2011, 10:24 AM ET
    Nokia: RBC Says Buy; Units Boosted By Dual-SIM Model


    Text Size
    By Tiernan Ray

    RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Sue today reiterates an Outperform rating on shares of Nokia (NOK) and a $9 price target, after raising his unit shipment estimate for Nokia this

    quarter to 100 million units from 89 million units, based on the strength of its so-called dual SIM phones.

    Those dual-SIM phones, popular in markets such as China, could help stem the decline in units based on Nokia?s aging ?Symbian? operating system, he thinks, in advance of new phones based on Microsoft?s (MSFT) Windows Phone 7 operating system. He expects the first Win Phone 7 device to be based on Nokia?s earlier ?N9? unit, and to debut in October at the ?Nokia World? event. HTC (2498TW) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), he notes, will likely beat Nokia to market by a little bit with the latest version of Win Phone 7, dubbed ?Mango,? with HTC set to roll out next week.

    I would note that an article this morning by Diana ben-Aaron with Bloomberg makes the case that Nokia could have an easier time attracting application developers with Mango. One third-party programmer she interviewed says some development tasks are ?a walk in the park? on Windows Phone 7 compared to what the task was like with Symbian.

    Nokia shares today are down 16 cents, or almost 3%, at $5.73.
    http://blogs.barrons.com

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 30 August 2011 12:20 AM #30

    Nokia Styles Comeback Plan

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904332804576538291349152466.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs


    Read it if you are remotely interested in details of the death march.

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before