AAPL: The Coiled Spring

  • Posted: 06 July 2011 01:55 PM #16

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 06 July 2011 01:31 PM
    westech - 06 July 2011 12:54 PM

    Is that a hope or a reasonable expectation?

    Neither. But it’s going to be a chapter in my book.

    Brad:

    Good to have you back in the AFB. What’s the story on the claimed lack of apps for Android-based tablets? Are developers moving slowly? Are developers waiting for more of a market or are the claims not valid?

         
  • Posted: 07 July 2011 01:23 PM #17

    A little added ammo for the coiled spring.

    Morgan Stanley analyst Jasmine Lu said in a research note that Hon Hai has delivered strong revenue growth?largely tied to Apple?but faces a rough bottom line. She said:

    Apple has been Hon Hai?s No.1 customer, with 26% sales contribution in 2010. We forecast sales from Apple to grow by 52% and 33% in 2011 and 2012 to account for 30 and 36% of total sales, respectively. This translates into 61-65% of Apple?s total COGS (excluding iTune and other software parts). Robust growth stems from Apple?s strong secular growth and share expansion alongside enlarged volume of iPhone and iPad for which Hon Hai serves as the sole source, except for iPhone CDMA that is shared by Pegatron. We believe Hon Hai remains the primary supplier to iPhone 5 and iPad 3, with nearly 100% share allocation. That said, Hon Hai?s growth from Apple is derived purely from Apple?s organic growth rather than Hon Hai?s share gains, which might only have more downside than upside.

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  • Posted: 09 July 2011 02:54 AM #18

    BillH - 07 July 2011 04:23 PM

    A little added ammo for the coiled spring.

    Morgan Stanley analyst Jasmine Lu said in a research note that Hon Hai has delivered strong revenue growth?largely tied to Apple?but faces a rough bottom line. She said:

    Apple has been Hon Hai?s No.1 customer, with 26% sales contribution in 2010. We forecast sales from Apple to grow by 52% and 33% in 2011 and 2012 to account for 30 and 36% of total sales, respectively. This translates into 61-65% of Apple?s total COGS (excluding iTune and other software parts). Robust growth stems from Apple?s strong secular growth and share expansion alongside enlarged volume of iPhone and iPad for which Hon Hai serves as the sole source, except for iPhone CDMA that is shared by Pegatron. We believe Hon Hai remains the primary supplier to iPhone 5 and iPad 3, with nearly 100% share allocation. That said, Hon Hai?s growth from Apple is derived purely from Apple?s organic growth rather than Hon Hai?s share gains, which might only have more downside than upside.

    BillH:

    I expect the iPhone 5 to sell on a scale we have not seen before and perhaps pushing FQ1 eps well above my conservative estimate.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2011 03:50 AM #19

    DawnTreader - 06 July 2011 11:03 AM

    My price target is $590 per share. $400 will come and go fairly quickly.

    If/when Apple hits $590, I might just have to buy all you bastards a round in Las Vegas, even if I have to do it in absentia.

    Because I will have died from an overdose of hookers and crack.

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    Posted: 09 July 2011 06:13 AM #20

    You guys have so much to live for!  (I assume.)  Like…AAPL 600!

    If the AAPL story plays out something like many of us think it will, we all need to think different.  A $250B Apple could probably support a price point well north of $600.  Of course a stock split or two might help, but it might not be necessary.

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    Posted: 09 July 2011 10:21 AM #21

    JDSoCal - 09 July 2011 06:50 AM
    DawnTreader - 06 July 2011 11:03 AM

    My price target is $590 per share. $400 will come and go fairly quickly.

    If/when Apple hits $590, I might just have to buy all you bastards a round in Las Vegas, even if I have to do it in absentia.

    Because I will have died from an overdose of hookers and crack.


    From one bastard to another, it is of course timing of 590 that makes all the difference in this above scenario. If we hit 590 by May1 then yes JD, you and I will probably be seeing similar fates, without the crack for me though. I am high on life. :-D A few shots of Patron will be in order for sure, and of course the hookers. LOL LOL  Now if that 590 comes 2 years from now, ehhh not so much, but still a happy camper.

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  • Posted: 09 July 2011 10:23 AM #22

    Incoming students are choosing Mac over Windows machines by 8 to 2?  It seems the early, lukewarm reception to the $100 Back-to-School promo is warming up. 

    That’s going to put fuel in the AAPL tank. 

    http://www.tuaw.com/2011/07/08/apples-back-to-school-promo-reportedly-beating-microsoft-8-to-2/

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2011 10:33 AM #23

    Mercel - 09 July 2011 01:23 PM

    Incoming students are choosing Mac over Windows machines by 8 to 2?

    Where I work, the U.S. Coast Guard Academy, the incoming class had the option to select Macbook Pro or Dell (previous two classes were issued Macbook Pros, no choice). This year the breakdown was 85% MBP, 15% Dell. Seems similar numbers are tracking across the demographic. There’s an article in the works somewhere about our experiences. When it hits the street I’ll post it. Coiled spring indeed.

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    Posted: 09 July 2011 10:50 AM #24

    Mercel - 09 July 2011 01:23 PM

    Incoming students are choosing Mac over Windows machines by 8 to 2?  It seems the early, lukewarm reception to the $100 Back-to-School promo is warming up. 

    That’s going to put fuel in the AAPL tank. 

    http://www.tuaw.com/2011/07/08/apples-back-to-school-promo-reportedly-beating-microsoft-8-to-2/

    Long term huge for Apple.  I’ve been noticing this trend since my daughters started college.  As these kids get into the work force, more enterprise penetration for Apple.

    Why would they say “8 to 2” and not “4 to 1” or 80%?  Odd ratio to report.  Six of one, half dozen of the other I suppose.  raspberry

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  • Posted: 09 July 2011 11:42 AM #25

    incorrigible - 09 July 2011 01:50 PM

    Why would they say “8 to 2” and not “4 to 1” or 80%?  Odd ratio to report.  Six of one, half dozen of the other I suppose.  raspberry

    You know, I thought the same thing when I first saw the numbers.

    But now that I think about it, perhaps they are fighting snow blindness. 4 to 1 or 25% are just rounded numbers that get ignored. “8 to 2” made me stop and think. And perhaps that is what they were going for.

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2011 01:03 PM #26

    FalKirk - 09 July 2011 02:42 PM
    incorrigible - 09 July 2011 01:50 PM

    Why would they say “8 to 2” and not “4 to 1” or 80%?  Odd ratio to report.  Six of one, half dozen of the other I suppose.  raspberry

    You know, I thought the same thing when I first saw the numbers.

    But now that I think about it, perhaps they are fighting snow blindness. 4 to 1 or 25% are just rounded numbers that get ignored. “8 to 2” made me stop and think. And perhaps that is what they were going for.

    I like 16 to 4 even better then. smile

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2011 01:07 PM #27

    DawnTreader - 06 July 2011 04:55 PM
    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 06 July 2011 01:31 PM
    westech - 06 July 2011 12:54 PM

    Is that a hope or a reasonable expectation?

    Neither. But it’s going to be a chapter in my book.

    Brad:

    Good to have you back in the AFB. What’s the story on the claimed lack of apps for Android-based tablets? Are developers moving slowly? Are developers waiting for more of a market or are the claims not valid?

    Brad, I would also like to welcome you back and would also be curious to know your thoughts to DT’s question.

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2011 01:29 PM #28

    Mercel - 09 July 2011 04:03 PM
    FalKirk - 09 July 2011 02:42 PM
    incorrigible - 09 July 2011 01:50 PM

    Why would they say “8 to 2” and not “4 to 1” or 80%?  Odd ratio to report.  Six of one, half dozen of the other I suppose.  raspberry

    You know, I thought the same thing when I first saw the numbers.

    But now that I think about it, perhaps they are fighting snow blindness. 4 to 1 or 25% are just rounded numbers that get ignored. “8 to 2” made me stop and think. And perhaps that is what they were going for.

    I like 16 to 4 even better then. smile

    That’s fine. After all, 341% of all statistics are simply made up on the spot.

         
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    Posted: 09 July 2011 01:34 PM #29

    madmaxroi - 09 July 2011 04:07 PM
    DawnTreader - 06 July 2011 04:55 PM
    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 06 July 2011 01:31 PM
    westech - 06 July 2011 12:54 PM

    Is that a hope or a reasonable expectation?

    Neither. But it’s going to be a chapter in my book.

    Brad:

    Good to have you back in the AFB. What’s the story on the claimed lack of apps for Android-based tablets? Are developers moving slowly? Are developers waiting for more of a market or are the claims not valid?

    Brad, I would also like to welcome you back and would also be curious to know your thoughts to DT’s question.

    The answer is obvious. Too much work!!! ” The upcoming “Ice Cream Sandwich” release of Android will fix the long-standing problem of fragmentation on the platform, which has forced application builders to write their programs differently for the multiple versions of the OS in circulation.”

    pcworld topic

         
  • Posted: 09 July 2011 02:15 PM #30

    Mr. Ballmer is visiting my Starbucks as I type and shot me a glare: Must have been the 8-to-2 news that’s eating him from the inside out.  Then again, my Apple logo on the back of my MBP was smiling at him, too. 

    Ok, back to work…