Week 26: F.U.D. of the Week

  • Posted: 29 June 2011 02:05 PM #31

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 04:33 PM

    Written like a card-carrying fanbot.

    Irrelevant personal attack as per 90% of your posts to this forum.

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 04:33 PM

    (1) Inexpensive third party USB floppies were available shortly after the introduction of the iMac and saved countless people’s asses who had content on floppies that they needed to access on their iMacs. Old FCP is no longer available for purchase. So if you need to add FCP seats to your business, you are SOL if you don’t like the new garbage or it doesn’t work with your workflow.

    (2) The rep that Apple is earning for being “not good tools for business” is different from the one it had with the same name in the mid 1990s. Back then, it was about not having the staple tools available. Today, it’s about having product lines that are best in class that professionals don’t just buy, but design their processes around, and then pulling the rug under said professionals and their investments. On the software side, Adobe has done a much better job ensuring process continuity for its pro customers than Apple has over the last decade, and yeah, that came at the expense of not jumping on every new Apple thing immediately at Apple’s command.

    (3) The smugness of Apple’s official response through iPhone wife beater Pogue illustrates that Apple didn’t even trial run this crap on the pros that depend on FCP. The most glaring omission by Apple was a bridge to existing projects! FFS! The second most glaring omission was simply working seamlessly with storage were pros have put a lot of money into equipment and time honing their processes. Unbelievable.

    All very interesting but irrelevant to this subject.

    Just another excuse for personal attacks and your usual talking points, Brad. Boring.

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    Posted: 29 June 2011 02:36 PM #32

    I’m not going to post a link. This is from Trefis, based on predictions for 2015.

    Don?t Worry About Android, Windows Taking A Bite Out Of iPhone Share

    A recent smartphone forecast from IDC suggested Apple?s share of the global market could decline from 18.2% in 2011 to 16.9% in 2015…IDC expects iPhone sales to show an average growth rate of 18% through 2011 to 2015 compared to an overall smartphone market growth of 20% during the same period.

    Trefis expects iPhone sales to show an average growth rate of 24% during the same period. In terms of market share, we expect Apple to continue to gain share from around 5% in 2011 to 10% of total market share in 2015 of the mobile phone market.

         
  • Posted: 29 June 2011 03:02 PM #33

    craigf - 29 June 2011 03:41 PM

    Call me crazy…

    OK, you’re crazy.

    craigf - 29 June 2011 03:41 PM

    ...but I would not be surprised…

    I would be very surprised.

    craigf - 29 June 2011 03:41 PM

    ...if Apple listened to its customers in this case…

    Say what? Are you at all familiar with Apple?

    craigf - 29 June 2011 03:41 PM

    ...and actually resumed sales and support for the real FCP…

    You really are crazy. And it’s no longer the “real” FCP. It’s the “former” FCP.

    craigf - 29 June 2011 03:41 PM

    ...while it figures out whether to fix the new version, reposition it or ditch it.

    I really don’t think you understand how Apple rolls.

    I wrote about this above and I wrote about it even more over at PED’s Apple 2.0 blog. Apple doesn’t care about the user. They care about the user experience. If they have to sacrifice customers in order to make, what they perceive, to be a better product, then that’s what they’re going do. And that, my friend, is all she wrote.

    P.S. Please don’t let the format of this post put you off. Just having a little fun. I appreciate your point of view and look forward to reading a lot more of your posts.

         
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    Posted: 29 June 2011 03:36 PM #34

    rattyuk - 29 June 2011 03:51 PM

    As per usual you are grabbing the wrong end of the stick.

    It’s kinda funny how ratty always fires the first personal shot then gets indignant when anyone shoots back. So basically, here are the rules for future engagement, ratty. Don’t be an ass, and I’ll reply completely civilly. Be an ass, and you’ll get it back in spades. It’s that simple. If you’ve been paying attention, it has always been that simple with me.

    See, I have this theory that most of the AFB regulars are slightly more full of carp than real analysts like Um and Munster, which is saying a lot. How you guys confront dissent over a long period of time continues to prove my thesis. I have a buddy who has written a very popular book on personal finance, and we’re discussing making this a real project. The theme would be how fanboyism applied to investing is a recipe for disaster. grin

         
  • Posted: 29 June 2011 03:37 PM #35

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 06:36 PM
    rattyuk - 29 June 2011 03:51 PM

    As per usual you are grabbing the wrong end of the stick.

    It’s kinda funny how ratty always fires the first personal shot then gets indignant when anyone shoots back. So basically, here are the rules for future engagement, ratty. Don’t be an ass, and I’ll reply completely civilly. Be an ass, and you’ll get it back in spades. It’s that simple. If you’ve been paying attention, it has always been that simple with me.

    See, I have this theory that most of the AFB regulars are slightly more full of carp than real analysts like Um and Munster, which is saying a lot. How you guys confront dissent over a long period of time continues to prove my thesis. I have a buddy who has written a very popular book on personal finance, and we’re discussing making this a real project. The theme would be how fanboyism applied to investing is a recipe for disaster. grin

    Let’s see the article is about FUD in press. All you did was use it as a jumping off point for your usual debating points. It added nothing to the discussion other than for you to attempt to score lame points over the Apple owning shareholders. Like your other, deleted, posts which just called everyone out.

    Just sayin’

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  • Posted: 29 June 2011 04:16 PM #36

    rattyuk - 28 June 2011 01:46 PM

    Think Mr H Blodget hit a home run here…

    Google Android Activations Hit Spectacular 500,000 A Day, Leaving Apple In Dust

    Doesn’t provide a shred of evidence, save Android activation figures to support his argument.

    And those activations claims by Google’s Andy Rubin are themselves are unsupported. Not only are they unauditable, the corroborating evidence for the claims is missing, or worse, contradicting:


    Market Share Declines

    The rise and rise (and rise) of Apple’s iOS
    “In the first quarter of this year, Android phone market share declined nearly 3%, while iOS’s share rose by more than 12%.”

    Google?s Android To Lose U.S. Share To iPhone
    “Google?s Android, which has commanded the top spot by share of smartphone sales on a platform basis, is set to increasingly lose share in the U.S. market as Apple?s iPhone gets stronger.”

    Apple the Third-Largest Mobile Phone Brand in the U.S.
    “The Android OS lost ground for the first time since Q2 2009, falling to 50 percent of smartphone unit sales in Q1 2011 compared to 53 percent in the prior quarter. Apple iOS share rose 9 percentage points to comprise 28 percent of smartphone unit sales.”


    Mobile Ad Revenue

    iOS still narrowly ahead of Android in mobile ad revenue
    “iOS devices were still narrowly ahead of Google (GOOG) Android devices, 45% to 43% (in April iOS had 50% to Android’s 39%)”

    iOS ahead in mobile ad revenue, but there?s more
    “Apple has 45 percent of the market. Android came in second with 43 percent of the market.”


    Developer Revenue

    The Trouble With the Android Tablet Market Is There Isn’t One
    “Apple has paid out $2.5 billion from its App Store. Google won’t divulge how much Android developers have been paid, probably because publishing that number would be hugely embarrassing.”

    Why Revenues for Developers Matter in the Android/iOS War
    “‘The trouble is that there is no money in developing apps for Android…annual Android developer income is a meagre 6% of iOS with an annual rate of increase only 9% as large as iOS. The gap between the two is getting far larger every year.’”

    Android App Developers Find it Harder to Monetize than iOS
    “‘It is more challenging for developers in the Google Android Market than in the Apple App Store to monetize using a one-off fee monetization model. We found that only two paid applications have been downloaded more than half a million times in the Google Android Market worldwide to date, while six paid applications in the Apple App Store for iPhone generate the same number of downloads within a two month timeframe in the United States alone.’”


    Data Traffic

    comScore Reports iOS Device Traffic Beats Android In Every Market
    “Research firm comScore has just issued a report introducing a new Device Essentials service that measures digital traffic from all devices and once again finds Apple?s iOS to dominate all markets.”


    Manufacturer Sales

    Android Dominates Smartphone Sales Worldwide
    “In fact, several vendors that have embraced Android have seen their total year-over-year sales fall, including LG, Motorola and Sony Ericsson, as their businesses transition to smartphones.”


    In summary, Google can say what it pleases about “activations”—and it apparently does. I am fascinated by the claim that—using Rubin’s own figures—while activations for the previous year show a clear flattening trend, they’ve taken a sudden 25% leap in the past six weeks.

    I nominate Andy Rubin for FUDster of the week.

         
  • Posted: 29 June 2011 04:58 PM #37

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 06:36 PM
    rattyuk - 29 June 2011 03:51 PM

    As per usual you are grabbing the wrong end of the stick.

    It’s kinda funny how ratty always fires the first personal shot then gets indignant when anyone shoots back.

    I fail to see how saying that one has got “the wrong end of the stick” is a personal shot. Ratty is just saying that Bosco got it backwards. As usual.

    The only thing that baffles me more that Bosco’s bizarre and twisted logic is why you guys - and yes, I’m looking at you, Ratty - respond to him. There’s nothing to gain. Bosco is baiting you and you’re falling for it hook, line and sinker.

    In the words of the immortal WHOPPER:

    “A strange game…. The only? winning move is not to play.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHWjlCaIrQo

    Don’t play Bosco’s game. When you do, everyone loses.

         
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    Posted: 29 June 2011 05:04 PM #38

    @ratty: Here’s the other thing… You’ll notice that when you and your buddies post personal attacks, they don’t get deleted by the mods here. Yet a few of my posts have been deleted by the mods, including one that simply pointed out the hypocrisy of the selective deletions. I never delete my own posts. Anyway, that’s more evidence for the book about why fanboys don’t make good stock analysts grin.

    @deasys: Assuming your figures are correct and Rubin’s are correct, the apparent discord between them can be explained by an expanding market. But if you really want to understand trends, pick a few measures and track with time. Google’s occasional release of daily activation numbers are a good long-term metric, because if they are caught fudging them (and it’s provable), they lose all credibility. comScore’s numbers are also good because they have a periodic history of measuring the same things. Cherry picking numbers from this source or that source without looking at the long term history of that source doesn’t really make a case. And that’s all you’ve done with 10 links above.

         
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    Posted: 29 June 2011 05:10 PM #39

    Funny FalKirk. I’ve never accused any of you of being insincere. And you’re calling me that just adds more evidence to support my premise that you guys only see what you want to see. In other words, don’t take investment advice from fanboys who hide behind screen names. Notice that I’m not questioning your sincerity, just how secure you really are in your beliefs.

         
  • Posted: 29 June 2011 05:19 PM #40

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 08:04 PM

    Yet a few of my posts have been deleted by the mods, including one that simply pointed out the hypocrisy of the selective deletions. I never delete my own posts. Anyway, that’s more evidence for the book about why fanboys don’t make good stock analysts grin.

    Carrying a grudge against Apple and/or SJ, and needing to pump up your pathetic ego and feed your inferiority complex makes your comments irrelevant, inaccurate, and offensive.  I’m sure that Snipus, Mace, and I, and several others here could demonstrate to you the idiocy of your “why fanboys don’t make good stock analysts” comment.  Money talks and BS walks.  Take a hike.

    Now it’s back to “ignore” for you.

    [ Edited: 29 June 2011 10:28 PM by Zeke ]      
  • Posted: 29 June 2011 05:31 PM #41

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 08:04 PM

    Assuming your figures are correct and Rubin’s are correct, the apparent discord between them can be explained by an expanding market.

    So you get what I was actually saying then?

    My objection to Henry’s original post is that Android claimed some large figures, which could well be correct, but he added “leaving Apple in the dust”. What I pointed out is that he had no information to make that statement. We will know on the 17th. Until then it was merely a FUD-filled subheading.

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  • Posted: 29 June 2011 07:02 PM #42

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 03:24 PM
    rattyuk - 28 June 2011 01:46 PM

    Think Mr H Blodget hit a home run here…

    Google Android Activations Hit Spectacular 500,000 A Day, Leaving Apple In Dust

    Doesn’t provide a shred of evidence, save Android activation figures to support his argument.

    Actually, that was a pretty balanced assessment from Blodget. His two main contentions are that Android kicked Apple’s butt in phones (true by numbers)

    Unverifiable numbers don’t make anything true.

    ...and that mobile is becoming a platform game.

    Yes, one that Google continues to lose.

    Back on platforms… Apple’s main platform fight so far has been against Flash, not Android. And that probably resulted in the industry coalescing around Android.

    The industry flocked to Android because it was their only hope—and it was free. Flash was targeted as a marketing differentiator by Apple’s competitors.

    Because lack of Flash and side-loading is now an additional “cost” of buying into Apple’s aesthetic.

    There is no cost. Flash is rarely required (or missed) anymore.

         
  • Posted: 29 June 2011 07:43 PM #43

    deasys - 29 June 2011 10:02 PM
    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 29 June 2011 03:24 PM

    Because lack of Flash and side-loading is now an additional “cost” of buying into Apple’s aesthetic.

    There is no cost. Flash is rarely required (or missed) anymore.

    I still think it’s a mistake for you guys to respond to Bosco.

    But with regard to Flash, I think Bosco has it exactly backwards. Again. Flash is the price being inflicted on Apple’s competitor’s as they desperately resort to any means in order to differentiate themselves from the iPad.

    [ Edited: 29 June 2011 09:57 PM by FalKirk ]      
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    Posted: 29 June 2011 09:41 PM #44

    FalKirk - 29 June 2011 10:43 PM

    Flash is the price being inflicted on Apple’s competitor’s as they desperately resort to any means in order to differentiate themselves from the iPad.

    Spot on.

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    The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it. The process by which banks create money is so simple the mind is repelled.

         
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    Posted: 29 June 2011 10:50 PM #45

    FalKirk - 29 June 2011 10:43 PM

    Flash is the price being inflicted on Apple’s competitor’s as they desperately resort to any means in order to differentiate themselves from the iPad.

    From ars technica’s TouchPad review:

    While playing Flash video, however, battery life dropped to about 5 hours.