AAPL Fiscal Q3 2011 Earnings Interim Thread

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    Posted: 29 June 2011 11:23 PM #31

    But AT, you missed the AFB submission deadline - so unless you worked it out with DT beforehand, I’ve already won!

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    Posted: 30 June 2011 01:32 AM #32

    Let’s have some numbers!

    I forget, did Cl4 devise a rating system of some kind last time around?  Were we trying to see if deagol would apply his ranking system for us? 

    In the meantime - regarding your numbers Chas, now that you’ve probably polished off that awesome iPad 2 birthday cake:  You’re also a member of the 18+ million iPhone unit sales group, which by my reckoning is a slight minority position.  You also have iPod sales tanking to below 7.5 million units.  What’re your thoughts on both of those trends?  I also noticed your estimated tax rate for Apple is fairly low, almost following Oppenheimer’s guidance for a 0.5% sequential drop in guidance.  You don’t see a bunch more VeriPhone sales - which may be a surprise even to Apple - tending to move the rate a little higher than that?

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    Posted: 30 June 2011 01:57 AM #33

    Yes.  Basically, EPS is tops followed by a gross revenue tiebreaker, or about 30 % weight given to revenue in the alternate ranking.  I made it such that the bigger the error, the faster one moves down the rankings.  Formula available upon request.

    If demand warrants, a more elaborate weighted system including gross margin and units could be made, ala deagol.

    [ Edited: 30 June 2011 02:05 AM by Treehouse ]      
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    Posted: 30 June 2011 02:01 AM #34

    Adam and Mav preparing for the earnings smack down….big talk. Who will prevail?

    [ Edited: 30 June 2011 02:43 AM by Red Shirted Ensign ]

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    Posted: 30 June 2011 02:48 AM #35

    It’s not just us.  Though, I should look back to see how this particular friendly rivalry got kicked off (though AT’s “I’m #1!” deal last fiscal quarter results may have had something to do with it wink ).

    I’m seriously half-serious about this!  So I’m trying for the bullseye like everyone else - competition is inevitable. 

    It’s fun, and we all push ourselves to get more and more accurate.  Good way for the AFB to show its skills to a wider audience.

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    Posted: 30 June 2011 02:56 AM #36

    Mav - 30 June 2011 05:48 AM

    It’s not just us.  Though, I should look back to see how this particular friendly rivalry got kicked off (though AT’s “I’m #1!” deal last fiscal quarter results may have had something to do with it wink ).

    I’m seriously half-serious about this!  So I’m trying for the bullseye like everyone else - competition is inevitable. 

    It’s fun, and we all push ourselves to get more and more accurate.  Good way for the AFB to show its skills to a wider audience.

    Plus you get to wear those sumo diapers… LOL

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 30 June 2011 03:00 AM #37

    Red shirted ensign - 30 June 2011 05:56 AM
    Mav - 30 June 2011 05:48 AM

    It’s not just us.  Though, I should look back to see how this particular friendly rivalry got kicked off (though AT’s “I’m #1!” deal last fiscal quarter results may have had something to do with it wink ).

    I’m seriously half-serious about this!  So I’m trying for the bullseye like everyone else - competition is inevitable. 

    It’s fun, and we all push ourselves to get more and more accurate.  Good way for the AFB to show its skills to a wider audience.

    Plus you get to wear those sumo diapers… LOL

    Yes, please keep wearing the diapers.  smile

         
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    Posted: 30 June 2011 03:29 AM #38

    Let’s not go there people. 

    I was on my iPhone (takes) 4 (ever to post on TMO on 3G at least) and I didn’t notice the clash of titans pic the redshirt posted.  I can’t pretend to be on the level of the best, not yet anyway.

    Also, in the interests of being culturally correct, it’s a mawashi, not a “sumo diaper.”  I certainly wouldn’t call it a “diaper” to, say, Asashoryu.

    Btw:  This is unexpectedly entertaining:  Sumo bout with special effects!

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 30 June 2011 12:41 PM #39

    Treehouse - 30 June 2011 04:57 AM

    Yes.  Basically, EPS is tops followed by a gross revenue tiebreaker, or about 30 % weight given to revenue in the alternate ranking.  I made it such that the bigger the error, the faster one moves down the rankings.

    EPS error magnification formula: 

    =    (1+  (ABS( [person’s estimate]-[average estimate]  ))/  [average estimate] )^ 5

    The error is amplified by the 5 exponent.  The 1 helps spread out people’s rankings so that the are definitively split. 

    There is a similar formula for gross revenue errors.  The exponent there is lower and also the number is weighted down a lot. 

    The 2 numbers are added and we have a ranking where EPS takes most of the credit, but gross revenue is more than just a tie breaker.  This quarter, I may increase the weight for gross revenue.

         
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    Posted: 01 July 2011 05:25 AM #40

    Btw DT, all the index participants have their numbers in?

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  • Posted: 01 July 2011 09:53 AM #41

    I wonder what the chances are that Apple will earn >$7.00 per share in the third quarter, thus surprising all of us including me.

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  • Posted: 01 July 2011 10:16 AM #42

    westech - 01 July 2011 12:53 PM

    I wonder what the chances are that Apple will earn >$7.00 per share in the third quarter, thus surprising all of us including me.

    It’s possible, of course.  Likely?  No.

    There’s a report coming out of GS today suggesting that VZ iPhone sales are flat or down from Q2 following a pow wow with VZ investor relations.  Apple is global, so domestic trends can be overstated to overall Q3 results. 

    http://9to5mac.com/2011/07/01/verizon-iphone-sales-slowing-down-ahead-of-iphone-5/

    When it comes to Apple’s international sales climb, there is always upside surprise potential.  However, Apple’s guidance is consistently conservative, and I don’t recall when Apple had a $2 beat over its guidance.  Recall that Apple’s guidance for this quarter is $5.03 EPS.

         
  • Posted: 01 July 2011 10:37 AM #43

    Mercel - 01 July 2011 01:16 PM
    westech - 01 July 2011 12:53 PM

    I wonder what the chances are that Apple will earn >$7.00 per share in the third quarter, thus surprising all of us including me.

    When it comes to Apple’s international sales climb, there is always upside surprise potential.  However, Apple’s guidance is consistently conservative, and I don’t recall when Apple had a $2 beat over its guidance.  Recall that Apple’s guidance for this quarter is $5.03 EPS.

    How about a 40% beat?

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    Posted: 02 July 2011 11:05 PM #44

    AT, hope you don’t mind that I brought your fiscal Q3 estimates over here:

    adamthompson3232 - 03 July 2011 12:10 AM

    Here are my estimates.

    Rev   26,374
    GM%  40.70%
    FIT %  23.75%
    OpEx   2,604
    EPS   6.64
     
    iPhone Units   17,029
    iPhone ASP   669
     
    iPad Units   8,100
    iPad ASP   640
     
    Mac Units   4,427
    Mac ASP   1,258
     
    iPod Units   8,447
    iPod ASP   177

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    Posted: 02 July 2011 11:14 PM #45

    Don’t get cocky.  And let’s keep it clean.  Until I win!

    Ahem.

    It really seems like the scatterplot of estimates is a heck of a lot tighter this time around, but then again, the index isn’t out yet, so maybe it’s just me.

    Overall I like your numbers, though I’m obviously hoping for my numbers (about 2% higher earnings and about 1.5% higher recs) to be closer to actual wink.

    Few questions: 

    Do you think VeriPhone sales improved this quarter?  If so, do you think tax rate would be affected?

    Your OpEx seems like it’s on the high side (sequentially higher on a percentage basis).  Why’s that?

    Your iPad ASP is considerably higher than the $604 actual “ASP” from last quarter, and while your Mac number is actually more bullish than mine (by about 3%), you also have ASP dropping pretty dramatically, by 5%.  Your thoughts on all that?

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.