AFB AAPL FQ4 Index Advisory

  • Posted: 03 July 2011 03:02 AM

    Everyone:

    Now that the AFB AAPL FQ3 Index has been posted (I’ll be posting the unit sales estimates by product line tomorrow), I’m announcing a few important changes to the processes for the next index for the September quarter:

    1. Estimates are due the day after the quarter’s close (presumably Saturday, September 24th). That makes the due date for estimates Sunday, September 25th.

    2. Participants are to send their estimates for the index via email. The official email address for entries is: robert(at)postsateventide.com

    The reasons for this change include eliminating the challenges created by several pages of posts with nested quotes and the confusion created by revisions to estimates posted in the forum. It will make the submission process more orderly and allow for all entries to be posted at the same time.

    3. This change is open for discussion, but the decision is not open for debate: All entries beginning with the FQ4 index will be listed by the participant’s real name. This is not an issue for many participants especially the AFB members who are participants in the Apple 2.0 analyst comparisons.

    I am announcing this change now so those who have misgivings about revealing their names have almost 90 days to work through the issues.

    Use of member names in forums such as the AFB were common in the years before social networking sites became popular. User names today are more of a hindrance than a help. Readers have a right to know the names of the participants behind the numbers. It will add credibility to the index and it will make the participants and the process more transparent. Again, this issue can be discussed, but the decision is not open to debate.

    This does not change the use of usernames in the AFB. But disclosure is a requisite for participation in future indexes.

    Thank you again to the 30 active AFB members who participated in the June quarter index. I’m already looking forward to compiling the estimates for FQ4.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 04:45 AM #1

    First off, let me say DT, thanks for letting me participate in this grand experiment for two quarters.

    I completely understand your reasons for the policy shift.  You are the driving force behind the AFB and I really appreciate all your efforts to maintain and grow the AFB and encourage us to really get out here with AAPL analysis.

    I guess this is my stop though.  I haven’t gotten to the point where I’m willing to give out my real name in any online forum.  I fully understand the need for real name identification and credibility concerns so I have no problems with how things will be going forward.

    Of course, I’d hope no one thinks any less of me for continuing to share my thoughts and home game numbers.

    [ Edited: 03 July 2011 06:32 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2011 11:05 AM #2

    Mav - 03 July 2011 07:45 AM

    First off, let me say DT, thanks for letting me participate in this grand experiment for two quarters.

    I completely understand your reasons for the policy shift.  You are the driving force behind the AFB and I really appreciate all your efforts to maintain and grow the AFB and encourage us to really get out here with AAPL analysis.

    I guess this is my stop though.  I haven’t gotten to the point where I’m willing to give out my real name in any online forum.  I fully understand the need for real name identification and credibility concerns so I have no problems with how things will be going forward.

    Of course, I’d hope no one thinks any less of me for continuing to share my thoughts and home game numbers.

    There’s almost 90 days for you to think it through. We certainly don’t want to lose you from the index. Again, this change has nothing to do with the use of user names in the forum. That will not change. However, for the index real names are important. Readers have a right to know the names of the people behind the published numbers.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 11:21 AM #3

    DT, now that we won’t be posting our individual numbers on the forum, have you given any thought to how close to the earnings call you’ll post the numbers? There has been a number of questions and comments about our numbers becoming the whisper numbers.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 11:23 AM #4

    Long overdue in my book DT. You put so much effort into this that achieving the highest credibility possible should always be the goal.  :innocent:

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2011 11:35 AM #5

    CdnPhoto - 03 July 2011 02:21 PM

    DT, now that we won’t be posting our individual numbers on the forum, have you given any thought to how close to the earnings call you’ll post the numbers? There has been a number of questions and comments about our numbers becoming the whisper numbers.

    The numbers will be posted about a week after the deadline (similar to this quarter). This allows time for a consistency check on the entries and feedback on any corrections that might be needed from the participants.

    Members can post their individual estimates in the AFB, but entries will only be accepted vial email. This will cut down on confusion and the chances for errors.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 11:53 AM #6

    Until a couple years ago, I was completely anonymous on the internet. 

    With my appearance on the PED listing in April, the biological handle is out there.  It was a surprise to see the real name up there, although I’m sure DT mentioned “real name” in an email.    As for myself, it was a good thing.

    Of those not included in the PED / AFB official index, your spirit and numbers continue to influence my numbers.  And lastly, I have my own little index.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 12:12 PM #7

    Mav - 03 July 2011 07:45 AM

    First off, let me say DT, thanks for letting me participate in this grand experiment for two quarters.

    I completely understand your reasons for the policy shift.  You are the driving force behind the AFB and I really appreciate all your efforts to maintain and grow the AFB and encourage us to really get out here with AAPL analysis.

    I guess this is my stop though.  I haven’t gotten to the point where I’m willing to give out my real name in any online forum.  I fully understand the need for real name identification and credibility concerns so I have no problems with how things will be going forward.

    Of course, I’d hope no one thinks any less of me for continuing to share my thoughts and home game numbers.

    +1

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2011 02:01 PM #8

    AHHA - 03 July 2011 03:12 PM
    Mav - 03 July 2011 07:45 AM

    First off, let me say DT, thanks for letting me participate in this grand experiment for two quarters.

    I completely understand your reasons for the policy shift.  You are the driving force behind the AFB and I really appreciate all your efforts to maintain and grow the AFB and encourage us to really get out here with AAPL analysis.

    I guess this is my stop though.  I haven’t gotten to the point where I’m willing to give out my real name in any online forum.  I fully understand the need for real name identification and credibility concerns so I have no problems with how things will be going forward.

    Of course, I’d hope no one thinks any less of me for continuing to share my thoughts and home game numbers.

    +1

    Who said real names will be published in an online forum? The index is not hosted in the AFB. It’s published on my blog. Associating a real name with a user name in the AFB is at the discretion of the member.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 02:43 PM #9

    DawnTreader - 03 July 2011 05:01 PM
    AHHA - 03 July 2011 03:12 PM
    Mav - 03 July 2011 07:45 AM

    First off, let me say DT, thanks for letting me participate in this grand experiment for two quarters.

    I completely understand your reasons for the policy shift.  You are the driving force behind the AFB and I really appreciate all your efforts to maintain and grow the AFB and encourage us to really get out here with AAPL analysis.

    I guess this is my stop though.  I haven’t gotten to the point where I’m willing to give out my real name in any online forum.  I fully understand the need for real name identification and credibility concerns so I have no problems with how things will be going forward.

    Of course, I’d hope no one thinks any less of me for continuing to share my thoughts and home game numbers.

    +1

    Who said real names will be published in an online forum? The index is not hosted in the

    AFB. It’s published on my blog. Associating a real name with a user name in the AFB is at the discretion of the member.

    DT, I too fully respect the decisions you have made. Without going into detail, and by prefacing this comment by assurances that my business has nothing to do with Apple nor would my participation in the earnings challenge be unethical or inappropriate, I can’t have my real name listed on your blog. Let’s just say searches done for other reasons could lead to the listing and that is something I would prefer not to deal with.  LOL The Internet is a big place and used for many purposes.

    Now, I’m always so far off in my estimates anyway that my graceful withdrawal will only serve to tighten up the mean and the averages to something closer to the truth.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2011 04:16 PM #10

    DT, you can publish my name anywhere you choose.  I get enough unwanted solicitations just in my local area (I love debating Jehovahs, they aren’t as well prepared as they believe) that I don’t care about such things any more.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 05:15 PM #11

    Gregg, somehow I knew you’d never have much of a problem with names.  I just can’t place why.  wink

    Ensign - you just raised your Man of Mystery quotient by a considerable factor.  smile

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 05:30 PM #12

    I’m gonna go jump on a couch or something now…

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 06:45 PM #13

    Ensign - you just raised your Man of Mystery quotient by a considerable factor.  smile

    Chalk it up to Federation-Klingon security rules. :wink:

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2011 09:59 AM #14

    I guess this rules out Apple employees from the index.

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    Posted: 05 July 2011 10:49 AM #15

    DT

    Thanks for posting these new ‘rules’. Much appreciated as I suspect there was too much ‘group think’ going due to members posting their estimates online prior to the cutoff date.

    Not sure if I’ll participate due to the ‘real name’ issue. Need to think a bit about that one.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG